[Ayreonaut]

Originally Posted by pEte fiSt iN Ur fAce

Saskatoon has a population of 250,000, 99.9% of whom are hockey mad.

I know this is hyperbole, but no Canadian city is that hockey mad. When I was working in Saskatoon, there was an article in the Star-Phoenix about the relative lack of interest in the Blades (which were a top team at the time) compared with other WHL cities. The opinion of the author was that Saskatoon is less of a sports (in general) city that Regina.

Include the same numbers from Regina, just down the highway, and you've got more than enough support.

The CFL can draw regional fanbases; the NFL can draw regional fanbases; the NHL, NBA, and MLB probably cannot draw fans from such wide areas. There are simply too many home games, and too many weekday games for (enough) people to take several hours, or even entire days out of their routines. Besides, I'm pretty sure I saw some figures last year that showed that the majority of Rider attendance was from Regina (at least much more than is widely believed). Hwy 11 would not fill up with thousands, or even hundreds of fans 41 times a year from Regina to attend an 8:00pm Tuesday night hockey game in Saskatoon.

Ohio has 12 million people, and hockey is actually quite popular there (see Cleveland leading the AHL in attendance), but the Jackets' market is not 12 million, it's probably closer to 2 million. The market for a Saskatoon NHL team would not be 1 million, it would probably be closer to a third of that.

I would wager a bet that Saskatoon has twice as many hockey fans as NYC. Madison Square Garden sells out every night through sheer force of numbers alone ~ the whole of Manhattan probably has only slightly more than 20,000 hockey fans.

If the Rangers won the cup, I would bet there would be between one and three million fans in the streets for the parade. Sure, many of them may not attend regular season games, but to say that a city of 250k has more fans than one of 20 (or 8) million is a bit of an overstatement.

Let's not forget that Saskatoon almost got a team in 1983 and we'll likely see it again as various teams go bankrupt / look to relocate: Phoenix, Dallas, Nashville, Columbus, Florida, the Islanders, Carolina, New Jersey and so on.

It's quite likely that only one of these teams will be moving anytime soon. Columbus and Nashville have built decent fanbases (especially considering how awful the former has been for the majority of its lifetime), the Isles are looking to get a new building that would likely rejuvenate the franchise. Raleigh and Newark will never top the attendance lists, but their teams draw better than in Atlanta or Phoenix. Dallas is puzzling, but a few solid seasons and fans should come back. I don't know about Florida. To say that all of these teams have a chance of moving is simultaneously overly optimistic and pessimistic...

Quebec is probably a sure thing. KC and Seattle are likely in line for a team as well. Las Vegas...whatever.

...and then you throw KC and LV into the mix? Seattle will get a team, yes. Maybe KC will as well, but it probably wouldn't do any better or worse than the ones you listed above.

If the Jets are able to turn a little profit with their 'small' market and small arena, then it'll be proof that a place like Saskatoon could do it, too.

No, it will be proof that a Canadian city of 750k can support an NHL franchise. Good news for Quebec and Hamilton, likely a non-factor when considering a move to Saskatoon.

p.s. The AHL would fail in Saskatoon just as it has in essentially every other Canadian market. In hockey 'mad' Southern Ontario, nobody supports the AHL. It's not a good indication of whether or not a city could support an NHL franchise.

Southern Ontario tends to like the big leagues (see the whole NFL thing), and the AHL teams there are close to the Leafs and Sabres. Saskatoon is what, 7 hours from the nearest NHL team? The AHL would do better in markets that are farther away from NHL cities (see the IceCaps and Moose vs. the Heat, Bulldogs, and Marlies).