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Originally Posted by Crawford
The outer Chicago neighborhoods have a very different typology. They're basically "cop neighborhoods" and tend to vote Dem, but are quite conservative by most measures. Again, I'm highly skeptical an Irish-American cop/firefighter neighborhood in Chicago is more liberal than an Italian or Russian neigborhood in NYC, even if the Presidential voting patterns differ somewhat.
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The cop/firefighters neighborhoods in NYC region, at least white ones went heavily for Trump. I'm a bit surprised the same wasn't true of Chicago; isn't that kinda Trump's base? I'm not familiar enough with Chicago to really judge by culture.
I guess there's several different ways to answer the question: using the most recent election, previous election, or some more qualitative feel answer.
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That doesn't make any sense as 1. NY State had a significantly lower proportion of Trump voters than Illinois and 2. About half the NYC metro isn't in NY State.
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Perhaps I should have said Trump did better in NYC suburbs than in Chicago suburbs. Trump did better in NYC than Chicago proper but NYC is a much larger portion of the Chicago metro area.
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Trump did (relatively) well on Long Island because of the unique demographics, not because of a home-state advantage. Long Island has tons of Orthodox Jews, South Italians and Russians. If you draw down to census tract you see he won where those groups predominate. Note that Westchester had few Trump voters; it also doesn't have nearly as many such ethnic enclaves.
If anything, Trump is least popular where he's best known (he got destroyed in Manhattan; I think worse than any urban county in the U.S.).
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Long Island has some Orthodox Jews in western Nassau but otherwise not many. Can't think of where there's a large Russian population. Westchester has the most educated and professional white population of the NYC suburban counties + a large minority population. Long Island is more typical of the white population of the region than Westchester is, it's not that unique. Manhattan is heavily transplant, not sure if it's fair to say it's where "he's best known".