[maccoinnich]

So I came across this PDC study from 2011 titled 'Central City Grocery Market Analysis'. It looked into the viability of grocery stores at 4 locations: SW 4th & Harrison, Riverplace Parcel 8, SE 10th & Belmont* and South Waterfront. Of those four, only 4th & Harrison was seen as viable. Here's the summary for 4th & Harrison:

PSU / 4th & Harrison Site

The market area for PSU is similar to that of the RiverPlace and OHSU-ZRZ sites, but does not extend as far south. It is roughly bounded by Clay Street to the north, the Willamette River to the east, Bancroft Street to the south and 16th Avenue/Barbur Boulevard to the west.

Target Markets
As of 2010, the PSU Market Area contained 11,757 residents in 6,271 households. Population growth was strong over the last decade at an average of 3.7 percent per year. The pace of growth is expected to slow somewhat through 2015, although remaining healthy at an average of 2.1 percent annually. Like the RiverPlace/OHSU-ZRZ Market Area, the PSU Market Area has small household sizes (average of 1.5 persons) and modest incomes (median of $42,706). Educational attainment is high – nearly two-thirds of the population age 25 or older holds a Bachelor degree or higher.

Over 21,000 employees work within the PSU Market Area. The largest shares work in health services (29 percent), other services (19 percent) and finance/insurance/real estate (16 percent).6 PSU students will be an additional target market for grocery development in this area. PSU anticipates enrollment will grow by 7 percent by 2019, from 25,647 students to 27,400.

Recent and Anticipated New Development
Appendix B provides an overview of recent and planned development (excluding South Waterfront) in the PSU Market Area. Since 2005, seventeen new projects have added housing units to accommodate 2,522 new residents and commercial space for nearly 2,000 new employees. Over the next five years, space for another 2,238 residents and 3,150 retail and office workers is planned or proposed.

Potential Grocery Demand
Marketek estimated grocery demand based on existing and future resident and employee spending in the PSU Market Area. A comparison of existing grocery spending potential (demand) and current grocery sales (supply), indicate sales leakage of $28.5 million out of the market area. This amount translates to potential demand for 73,122 square feet of grocery store space (see Appendix C).

Future support for new store space generated by market area household and employee growth totals 12,809 square feet (10,901 SF supported by residential growth and 2,781 SF supported by employment growth. In total, there is potential for 85,931 square feet of new store space in the PSU Market Area over the next five years.

Potential Site Capture
PSU has potential to capture up to 35 percent of market area demand over the next five years, which translates to 30,075 square feet by 2016.

The report then asks various grocery operators of their opinions on the various site. On the 4th & Harrison site:

John Attar, Owner/Operator Barbur World Foods:

• Interested in site
• Concerned about parking
• Would explore a two-story store at this location

Rick Wright, President & CEO Market of Choice:

• Very interested in site; the customer base is Market of Choice’s target market
• Has looked at the site before and would consider a 30,000 SF store
• Primary objection/concern is how to deal with parking; absolute minimum need is 2-3 spaces per 1,000 SF
• Parking structure may make a store cost prohibitive

Don Forrest, Director of Development New Seasons:

• Excellent underserved dense consumer market
• Very interested in this location

John Kellogg, Real Estate Broker for Whole Foods Commercial Realty Advisors:

• Attractive location
• Level of activity in vicinity is a plus
• Strong population
• Very concerned about truck access
• Plans to make SW Montgomery Street a non vehicular ‘green street’ further limit truck and auto access

Three years later, there's now a 30,000 sq ft grocery store proposed for this site. I'm calling it first as the next New Seasons: it's about the right size; they were enthusiastic about it this site in 2011; they're in expansion mode; and it wouldn't compete with any of their existing or planned stores.

* As an aside, SE 10th & Belmont is the goat blocks site. None of the grocers asked considered it a viable location, and yet the goat blocks development will have a large grocery store in it. Presumably someone thinks it's viable.