^^^^^
That's your opinion, and I won't challenge it. But let me share mine; I think the change will come much faster than most people expect.
Why?
Finances. Auto insurance for one. Have you heard of car tracking devices used for auto insurance? Basically, you install a device in your car like a black box that tracks your every move (distance, speed, acceleration,
everything). From the data gathered, the insurance company is able to determine how dangerous a driver you are, and charges you accordingly:
Do car tracking devices infringe on your privacy?
http://www.angieslist.com/articles/d...ur-privacy.htm
Right now, you can get an insurance discount for participating. But in the near future, most analysts agree that you will be charged substantially more if you don't agree to being tracked.
And that's just one way insurance is going to get much more expensive. Currently auto insurance, along with nearly every other cost of driving, is kept artificially low because driving a car is the most basic and universal form of personal mobility. But once autonomous cars, taxis, and shared vehicles become an option, the act of driving will no longer be about personal mobility, but about recreation.
Based on the report a few posts back that says individual things like pedals, mirrors, and steering wheels will disappear one by one, I imagine new insurance rates coming out at the same time stating that if you have a car with pedals, mirrors, or a steering wheel, then you will be charged substantially more than if you owned a car that didn't have one.
Oh, and did I mention that riding in an autonomous taxi at 50 cents per mile is cheaper than actually owning a car, even under current artificially low insurance rates?
newsroom.aaa.com/tag/driving-cost-per-mile/
And believe me, insurance rates will rise. Driving is the most dangerous thing people do in their daily routines. Car wrecks are the leading cause of death for people younger than 30. 30,000 Americans die every year in car accidents; that's over twice the total number of people killed world wide last year from terrorist attacks. That is a lot of insurance claims that the insurance companies would rather not deal with. You can bet that the first chance they get, they are going to hike the rates on human-driven cars.
So, will new cars being sold in 10 years lack certain controls in order to avoid extra insurance costs? I would say yes, I find that more than feasible, I think that is highly probable.