Quote:
Originally Posted by b5baxter
Census data actually supports the view that we are in a bubble. Population growth has been at a much lower rate than increases in real estate. In last 10 years Vancouver's population growth averaged 1% per year. Home prices grew much faster.
If were really bringing in more people too fast and running out of room we would see rents increasing at close to the same rate as houses but we haven't.
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I checked those links and they don't really say too much other then BC (not Vancouver) has a declining population growth rate. How that plays out over the next few years will be seen. With Alberta's housing market taking a bit of hit since the recession of 2008 and better job prospects there then BC, i'd expect there to more people leaving BC for other provinces.
Vancouver and the Fraser Valley
still absorbed 200,000 people. They have to go somewhere. Add this fact to the following:
1. The whole Fraser Valley has a finite amount of develop-able land (land here is not cheap) which continues to be developed due to net increase in population, increasing the price of land.
2. A Safe and Beautiful place to live
3. Low interest rates
4. There was a 1-2 year lull in new housing stock during the recession, it wasn't until 2010-11 where see developers start marketing new buildings/subdivisions
As long as Vancouver remains a livable city (excluding cost of housing) we will attract immigration. As long as interest rates remain below 6%; as long as developers don't flood the market with inventory; as long as the economy remains relatively stable, we will see the housing prices stabilize and see modest 2-5% increases year over year.
What people in other parts of the country do not understand is that what is considered affordable here in Vancouver has changed compared to the rest of country. Not every one here wants a house. Condos are now the entry level property and people who want to buy into the Vancouver market have to understand this. They may have to start in the valley and move in as they can afford. It might take more time to save. Whatever is needed. It can be done.
A friend of mine who just turned 22, sold his truck, used all his saving to buy a 30 year old condo in PoCo. It cost him 113k, yes 113k. Its old but he bought where and what he could. It is tough to accept the idea that what most people grew up in is no longer affordable. We have to change our expectations.
The most retarded thing is if everyone all started to believe there was a bubble and started selling we'd all be F@cked.
So try this on for size, if we all just stated that it is best to buy what you can afford and over time work your way into to your dream home, keeping your expectations in reality we'd have nothing worry about. But then we'd have nothing to complain about.
