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Old Posted Nov 8, 2016, 12:30 AM
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1overcosc 1overcosc is offline
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Location: Kingston, Ontario
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Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post
That's not even close to true. All early voting data tells you is that registered Democrats have voted +5% over registered Republicans. It doesn't tell you who they voted for, and I remind you that both Clinton and Trump have historically high unfavorability ratings. There is no guarantees about how registered Democrats or registered Republicans are actually voting.

Furthermore, compared to 2012, registered Democrats were +7% in Nevada above registered Republicans. This year, they are only +5%, which could signal relative voter apathy among Democrats, and may also signal relative dissatisfaction with Clinton as the nominee.

Finally, a full 20%+ of the early vote is independents, and we have no idea how they are voting.

There are some who want to claim early victory in Nevada for Clinton, but that is far from the case. We won't really know until tomorrow.
Party affiliation data is one thing but there's also calculations made (don't know if that's direct-from-data or an extrapolation from data by municipality) that Hispanic turnout in Nevada is way up from 2012, which is a strong sign of Clinton strength. And Nevada has a history of polls underestimating the impact of Hispanic votes--a similar thing happened in the 2010 Senate election when Democrat Harry Reid won Nevada against expectations.
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