Quote:
Originally Posted by ILYR
Construction of probability of the Jets making the playoffs (so this is construction related)
There is plenty of talk about the Jets being in 3rd in the East, but the other teams have all these games in hand. So that being said I have done some math to show what record all the lower ranked teams would need to have to reach 95 points. I choose 95 as this is an average of the 8th place teams from last year (this includes points for division leaders, which were all way above 95 last year). For the east 8th was 93 and the west was 95 points.
TM - Team
GM - games played
PTS - points
GR - games remaining
MX - Maximum number of points a team could get this season based on the remaining games
NP - number of points needed for a team to reach the 95 point mark
W - L - OTL - the record required by each team to reach 95 points
TM GM PTS GR MX NP W L OTL
WPG 63 67 19 105 28 14 5 0
FLR 59 66 23 112 29 14 8 1
TOR 61 65 21 107 30 15 6 0
WSH 60 63 22 107 32 16 6 0
TMB 60 60 22 107 35 17 4 1
BUF 60 59 22 103 36 18 4 0
NYI 60 58 22 102 37 18 4 1
CAR 61 58 21 100 37 18 3 1
MTR 61 58 21 100 37 18 3 1
What is immediately apparent from this is that the minimum number of points to make the playoffs will likely be less than last year. None of these teams are likely to finish with these records. Even Florida, which has the most realistic record required to reach the 95 point mark, will be in tough to win 14 they way they have been playing. The Jets have an advantage over Toronto, Buffalo and NYI as they have the division title in reach as well. I have a hard time believing Montreal or Carolina will have records anywhere near 18-3-1.
Personally I think 8th will need a minimum of 91-93 pts. Either way the Jets and Florida are in control of their own destiny, whereas the other teams will need a bit of help. It going to be interesting.
I guess for those Habs fans it all went downhill after the opening win in Winnipeg.
GO JETS GO!!!
|
I can't see any of the above teams achieving those projections.
Hate to say it, but Fla.s 4 games in hand could make the difference for the Jets making the playoffs. Jets would be fortunate to go 11-6-2. maybe good for 7th or 8th. Got an e-mail from the Jets regarding playoff tickets last week,
got till March 2nd to committ. Gotta go for it, if it doesn't happen, money gets applied to next years season tickets.
