Re: the distance thing with Toronto and Canada, yes there is an obvious impact on Buffalo due to this. Niagara Falls on the Canadian side is a metro area of 400,000 people with a skyline of its own. You can see the Niagara Falls skyline from any place of height in downtown Buffalo. This duality to the region makes it much larger. Buffalo USA and Niagara Falls US/Canada are a unit, and it has 1.5 million people. It can't claim as such since the border is there, but its significantly larger. And this region of 1.5 million is only an hour to an hour and a half from the greater Toronto-Hamilton area, with some 6-7 million people.
The relation to Toronto also makes Buffalo have the connection that helps. But, it still doesn't provide Buffalo with a higher metro GDP. Rochester independently is factually and observably a richer city, and we'll see how that continues. The state government is investing into Buffalo heavily, so I wouldn't be surprised if the city overtakes Rochester's GDP going forward. There are thousands of high paying, white collar jobs headed to Buffalo in the near future.
http://wivb.com/2014/06/04/cuomo-to-...-roswell-park/
Quite literally, there was an announcement that IBM is bringing 500 high paying research and development jobs to downtown Buffalo. With this much growth every so often (this isn't the only recent addition), there is an uptick in the Buffalo economy. Buffalo also feels like its turning a corner, just in the 5 years I've been here I've seen massive change to the downtown core with new cranes and new energy that didn't exist before. And I remember passing through the city 10 years ago, and its far better with each passing year.
Buffalo does have its challenges. I've mentioned it before, but this region outside the city proper of Buffalo does have crushing local property and education taxes. When I say crushing, I mean literally people around here cannot own a home unless they have two average incomes combined or a very high, above average single income earner. Property values are higher in Ontario, but the tax/mill rate in Buffalo is absurd. Homes that cost $250,000 in Niagara region Ontario are probably paying $3-4,000 in property tax (I know this based on personal examples and friends I've met, or browsing public records). In Buffalo, a $250,000 newer home in Wheatfield or Clarence or Hamburg will easily have taxes approaching $6-8,000 a year. The tax rate on the US side of the border is double Ontario's average.
Buffalo needs lower taxes to help its economy, it'll be suffocated forever more until the local governments get it together.
EDIT: I wanted to add a sample. I lived in Hamburg for several years, and I'd see homes like this that are nice, simple modern homes:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/32...54463719_zpid/
The property tax is over $6,000 for a home valued at $230,000, this home is around the corner from where I used to live. This mill rate is by far above the national average and is crushing for many people. The Buffalo region doesn't have the disposable income of Toronto or larger cities here like San Francisco or NYC.
If this home were in Niagara Falls, ON it would probably be valued at 350,000 CAD, and if it had Buffalo taxes it'd be probably closer to $9,000 in taxes. Its crushing by any standard. Niagara region, Ontario wouldn't be taxing it nearly as much.