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Old Posted Jun 10, 2017, 3:14 AM
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Dr Awesomesauce Dr Awesomesauce is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Berklon View Post
Not sure where you're getting your facts. The Jays are only 7 GB right now and there have been plenty of teams who've made up that deficit in the second half of the season - and some who've done it in the last quarter of the season. The Jays haven't even finished the first quarter of their season.

There's plenty of room for error.

I can't believe you think the odds of a teams season is over with only 7GB and less than a quarter of the season played. If that were the case, then there are 11 teams currently who have little chance of making the playoffs with about 120 games left. That's 120 games of empty stadiums because there's little hope.

No, just no.
You're making some very strong statements without backing them up with facts. I didn't bother posting anything at the time because the interwebs/ radio/ newspapers were filled with facts about the hole the Jays had dug themselves.

Here's an excerpt from Sportsnet on 28 April:
There’s no denying the significance of those 16 losses, though.

Simply put, teams that lose that often in April barely ever make the playoffs. Of the 186 teams to advance to the post-season in the wild-card era, just three lost 16 or more games in April: the 2001 Athletics (8-17), the 2007 Rockies (10-16) and the 2014 Pirates (10-16).

If the Blue Jays are going to reach the playoffs, they’ll need to go on a historic run and become the fourth team in the wild-card era to rebound from a 16-loss April. Something like a 95-win clip over the remaining 140 games would give them a decent shot at playing October baseball. Anything short of that, and they’re in trouble.

Full article here.

So, I stand by what I said earlier: it's not over but they're going to have to play tremendous baseball the rest of the way.

If we assume that 90 wins is what might be needed to make the playoffs (could be 87 or 88 or whatever but 90 is a nice round number), they will have to go 61-41 (.598) the rest of the way. Far from impossible but still a bit of a stretch.
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