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Old Posted Aug 31, 2010, 8:20 PM
phesto phesto is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: yvr/bwi
Posts: 2,675
^Yup.

The study can be read here: https://s3.amazonaws.com/policyalter...ing_Bubble.pdf

I read the whole thing, mostly because the Sun has been reduced to mostly sensationalism when it comes to Real Estate news over the past couple of years, so I wanted to see for myself the argument being made for a "bubble".

Several of the assertions made in the study are pretty flimsy and his overall methodology is somewhat flawed. Basically he suggests that this (self proclaimed) housing bubble is different from any previous bubble, including the U.S. pre-2008 crash, admitting that comparison with the US in 2008 is difficult given that the risk of widespread foreclosures in Canada is minimal even with rate increases. Then he goes on to model "the bubble bursting" similar to US crash, Vancouver 1990's crash, utilizing methodology that completely generalizes and ignores unique factors of each particular market and factors in the rise in house prices.

I'd prefer to read about a study conducted by an economist who has actually done a lot of work in the field of real estate. But I digress, it is always a hot topic to discuss in Vancouver, so best not to get too mired in facts and detail.

For the record, I believe the market is due for a correction; it just bothers me to see an economist make bold claims to the point of predicting % price drops and then back it up with a report that would barely pass an undergrad econ class. I understand there is a political element and that it makes good news, but c'mon.
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