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Old Posted Feb 25, 2012, 9:31 PM
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AnthonyHarding AnthonyHarding is offline
Dare Mighty Things
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Boise, Idaho
Posts: 2,248
If I were to guess, I'd say don't be surprised to see Alaska/Horizon restart Boise to Los Angeles. They'd have a far better chance, IMO, than Delta would at making it work, since AS/QX has a larger FFer base and has such a close relationship with Delta anyway. The reason I think they'd restart it is that Southwest almost certainly cut into the Boise-Los Angeles market with easy one-stops via Reno. With the Reno service ended, that lessens the competition on the route even if only slightly. 85% load factor on an ERJ-145 would be enough to make a Q400 profitable with AS/QX's cost structure.

The only problem is that it's a longer route, and we have to see where fuel prices are going. If they indeed will skyrocket like some folks are predicting, then a longer Q400 route may not make sense. For better or worse, I think AS/QX has a major opportunity on their hands. After a very very close battle for market share in the last 2 decades, Southwest "blinked" by cutting Boise to Seattle/Reno/Salt Lake City and shedding frequencies. If AS were to strike fiercely now, adding Reno/Los Angeles, perhaps restarting Spokane and Oakland, even if they temporarily lose money on the routes, they could drive Southwest to leave Boise entirely, which would suddenly give them a significantly larger share of the market. If that were to happen, I think we could even see a renaissance of the Boise hub that AS/QX used to have.
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