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I think it would be even closer than that, something like 46% for each party nationwide. While the Conservatives would win a few ridings where the combined Liberal/NDP support is nearly equal to their vote, they will still win a lot of ridings in Ontario and the Maritimes and, in this year's election, Québec.

Only about 5% of the Liberal vote seemed to shift to the Conservatives in Northern Ontario's ridings (though in Sault Ste. Marie, the Liberals actually became more popular and the NDP incumbent lost), while in Alberta I figure the blue grits are already voting for the Conservatives.

It will also be interesting to know how this will play out in the next election when seats are redistributed, especially if Alberta, BC and Ontario get those extra seats. That would mean more opportunities to win in the GTA, Vancouver and Alberta.

It will also be interesting to see, should the Liberal party disintegrate further under its interim leader, if any of its right-learning members (if there are any in the house) cross the floor, or join the NDP.