[travis bickle]

Hello all,

Been away for awhile, but am slowly getting through everyone's posts. I read Shallit's prediction for the airport in 2008. I'll give mine here. I'm a little more optimistic than Bob.

I'm basing these on what I've heard from various players at the airport and in the industry. If two of them come true... I'll consider it a success.

Here are Airline; City; confidence percentage; comments.

ExpressJet Fresno 85%
XE gives in to local government requests - service doesn't last a year.


Continental Cleveland 75%
Part of Continental's expansion at CLE. I don't know anyone at Cont. This comes strictly from airport people.


Aeromexico Mexico City 40%
Supposed to be announced 1Q 2008 - confidence would be higher with any airline other than Aeromexico.


JetBlue Boston 55%
JetBlue has little connecting availability at BOS. All traffic must be O & D making this flight difficult to fill daily.

Orlando 30%
High daily pax counts but miserable yields make this a low probability.

Salt Lake City 15%
JetBlue increases presence in SLC.


US Air Charlotte 60%
Surprised at how confident US Air contacts are of this flight. Great connections for US Air here. Much better than Philly.

Philadelphia 10%
US Air won't do both cities, but does want to offer a direct SMF-east coast flight. This is the second choice.

United Honolulu 20%
Part of United's recent deal with Pleasant Holidays. Will use 757 2x/wk. Service to start early Summer.


American Chicago 20%
American returns using MD-83s. I'm dubious to this as American seems to be cutting back it's Chicago/west coast service to secondary markets and are phasing out their MD-80 jet family.


Delta New York 20%
Morning flight using a 738.


Virgin America New York 10% Virgin America makes Sacramento fourth California destination with a morning flight to JFK. 1x/day
San Diego 10% Enters this Southwest monopoly that carries over 2000 pax a day. 4x/day
Seattle 10% Ignites a price war with Alaska Airlines on one of that airline's busiest routes. 2x/day

I give the above Virgin America service a 75% chance for 2009.

Southwest Denver 45%
Part of the Southwest westward expansion out of Den. Confidence would be 80% if SWA had more gates at SMF.

Northwest Detroit
20% Part of the increased service at this Northwest hub.

Thus my big predictions for 2008 are Cleveland, Charlotte and Boston. I don't count Fresno because I don't expect it to last. We'll see. I'd be happy with two out of three.

Total passengers for SMF in 2007 fall just short of 11 mil. Will eclipse 11 mil. in 2008 becoming the third busiest airport in Northern California following SFO and OAK.

There is usually at least one surprise each year. Who could have predicted ExpressJet's SMF operation in 2006? If I were to bank on a surprise, I'd go with Expressjet non-stop to Austin.

Of course, you have to take anyone's prediction with a huge grain of salt. I've been getting told for two years straight (from people who should know) that a new Delta flight to Cincinnati was imminent. Still waiting...

2007 was a great year for SMF. If it can come close to that success in 2008, we're looking at another outstanding year.