So far, I don't see Scheer as a very convincing leader. So in my view it will be a bounce-back election for the Conservatives, but only to the extent that the Liberals end up right on the line for a majority. The gushing support for the Liberals is gone, but enough "default" support has replaced it to keep them in power. Not unlike 1968 vs. 1972 in some respects.
Still, I would say that the Liberals are probably down to their last three strikes as far as major mistakes are concerned. They need to start looking more competent: their achievements are looking very thin, outside of feel-good photo ops and posturing. Plus they still have the tricky cannabis rollout to get past, with all the potential that has for missteps.
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