[MTLskyline]

I am not very surprised that Coderre is ahead, but am shocked at how poorly Bergeron and especially Côté are doing.

It's not really being talked about, but I suspect that Coderre is seen as the most moderate. People know where he stands on those sorts of issues, so voters likely feel relatively comfortable with him at the wheel (especially federalists).

Côté is relatively unknown to non-francophones. The fact that he joined forces with Louise Harel, likely scared a lot of federalist voters into the Coderre camp. The fact that he is seen as a federalist, and perhaps a bit right-wing is scaring off Louise Harel's traditional east-end base. It was probably a bad gamble for both sides of the Coalition.

Bergeron is probably seen as being a bit nuts by a lot of voters, although he seems to be maintaining his base from the last election (inner city people). Bergeron is naturally going to have trouble in more suburban boroughs, which now constitute a good chunk of the city. People in places like Pierrefonds, Anjou and Lachine are attached to their cars.

Joly, again is relatively unknown, although the fact that she is not seen as a kook probably helped her in the west end. However, she seems increasingly like a minor candidate, which is likely causing some people to support someone they actually think can win.