Quote:
Originally Posted by cabotp
 So what exactly is the comparison.
While some people would love to see a 50% drop in house prices. It isn't going to happen in this area. Not unless Metro Vancouver becomes a place that nobody wants to live in. Also our lack of land space will continually push for higher land prices. All those places in the US that were mentioned have so much land space that they can never run out. So there is no incentive for the price of land to rise.
I do see the possibility of a slight drop. Especially once the HST kicks in and the interest rates start to climb. Right now you are seeing a frenzy as people try and sell and buy before both happens. So come 3rd and 4th quarters. You will probably see less activity than the first and 2nd quarters. But the activity won't drop to the point that the house prices will crash. They will probably just stabilize and climb at the rate of inflation or just below. |
I fear we may be approaching a day of reckoning in Vancouver. Consumer debt in Canada is out of control, it takes 70 percent of one's income to own here. We have the distinction of having one of the most severely unaffordable markets in the world.
Add on much stricter mortgage rules, 10 percent down, qualification based on 5 year closed term, less income recognition for rental income, and of course the hst.......
How quick we forget the micro collapse of 2008 with SFH homes in vancouver losing close to 25 percent of their value. Of course interest rates came in to save the day, and govenrment policy seems to perpetuate the bubble here indefinitely. Listings are already on the rise and sales seemed to have peaked.
I fear things may end badly, very badly.