Quote:
Originally Posted by hipster duck
Essentially, of the top 10 cities in the 1921 census, 9 are the largest metros today. They traded places, and no city is in the same spot that it was then (except maybe Ottawa), but they're all there, even Calgary.
This is quite a bit different than the US, where people would have thought you were crazy in 1920 if you said that Phoenix, Arizona or Miami, Florida would be among the largest metros, while places like St. Louis or Cleveland would be third tier cities. |
I think there is definitely some truth to this. Canadian cities have been relatively stable and there is no real analog to the Sun Belt here. The normal reason given for the explosion of growth in the Sun Belt is that air conditioning made the southern areas more desirable. It is hard to see a similar potential in any region in Canada. Another difference is that there were earlier population pressures in areas like California.
One problem with looking at top 10 lists in Canada vs. the US is that the Canadian list is much more comprehensive. We only have 33 metropolitan areas today, and that goes all the way down to places with an urban core of 50,000 people.
For what it's worth, I agree that we probably won't see a smaller Canadian city turn into a large metropolitan area over the next 50 years. However, I don't think it's that far-fetched to imagine a smaller city hitting 1 million due to some combination of changing factors (mainly rising costs in some cities and immigration; we are currently in the middle of a shift in immigration from the largest Canadian cities to smaller cities spread around the country). It's worth pointing out that 1 million may not qualify as a large metropolitan area in Canada in 2067. Windsor or London hitting 1 million people in 50 years is not a Phoenix 1950-2000 type growth scenario.
As an aside, I think there is or was a window of opportunity for the better-connected parts of the Maritimes to turn into something like what North Carolina is in the US. They've largely failed to capitalize on their advantages though, through a series of bad economic development decisions and bad PR. They could have a much better reputation as a place to live and establish a business. If they manage to achieve that I think the region could have some of the faster-growing cities in Canada.