View Single Post
Old Posted Dec 23, 2015, 7:06 PM
wwmiv wwmiv is offline
Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Austin -> San Antonio -> Columbia -> San Antonio
Posts: 3,615
There's just no way it won't. It's called path dependence of growth. Even if we have a renewed focus on suburban growth, we're going to see taller towers sprout in almost every direction from downtown in the areas that are already the most urban. The only question mark is what happens to the Breckenridge Tract. Does or does UT not redevelop that land? If they go through with their long-term plans, that'll end up happening, too.

Look, for instance, at the metros that are the size that Austin will be in 30-40 years as illustrative: Atlanta, Boston, Seattle, Miami, Minneapolis, San Diego, Phoenix. All these have significant high use urban outgrowth regardless of how urban the rest of their metro area is. Phoenix has a surprisingly dense, if not particularly tall, downtown and multiple other dense use urban clusters around the metro area, even if the metro area as a whole is /not dense at all/. Same thing for Atlanta. We all think of much of the core of Atlanta as being an urban paradise, but it is also the least dense metro area in the entire country and look how far Atlanta's walkable core extends! It's the same story for all of these metro areas, whether they lack height (for Phoenix and San Diego, they only lack height because of FAA regulations) or not (the rest), their urban walkable high rise core spreads for a good deal more than Austin's currently... and if we end up that size, shouldn't we simply expect to end up where they are now (or even more, given development trends)?
Reply With Quote