The AZ Republic is known for overly optimistic outlooks and complete avoidance of climate issues. For a view of why Phoenix could be headed for negative growth if sprawl continues, I will start with why economic activity could stall in Phoenix which would mean little population growth:
"Fishman sees a more realistic scenario in which 'places like Chicago start using their water supplies to woo companies.' Companies like Intel, whose water-guzzling microchip plants sit near bone-dry Phoenix. This could could have all sorts of implications for where economic growth occurs in the future — shifting, for instance, the balance of prosperity from the Sun Belt back to the Rust Belt. And it might not be too far off. Because while the average person may not think much about the future of water, says Fishman, 'these huge corporations have water security on their top-five lists of critical issues.'"
http://www.salon.com/2012/03/31/the_..._water_crisis/
The AZ Republic article always avoids the issue of water scarcity which gives people the false impression that a problem doesn't exist and growth can continue unmitigated.
But the AZ Republic article does indicate some things to keep an eye on:
1) The land purchases are mostly in communities started before the crash and in some ways echo growth in the boom years, except the
developments farthest from Phoenix’s core aren’t yet attracting builder or buyer attention. Most of the land purchases are inside the outermost freeways.
2) Growth is projected to continue at a steady pace for the next few years, with the number of houses built to
stay below 50 percent of the number that went up in the peak boom year of 2006.
3) Whether new-home buyers flock to the
West Valley like they have to the southeast isn’t a sure thing. And so far,
neither builders nor home shoppers are doing any serious buying in most parts of Pinal County or west of the White Tank Mountains. New-housing developments in Pinal and the far southwest Valley were hurt the most by the crash.
4) “The ‘drive until you qualify’ homebuilding trend worked before because the mortgage market didn’t really require borrowers to qualify for the loans they were taking out,” Brown said. “Lending guidelines are much tougher, and borrowers will really have to be able to afford the payments on a new house.”
That could mean that population growth will remain at today's averages of below 2% over the long-run. We also run the danger of another housing crash or devaluation of the market, negating any increase in home values we've recently seen if too much is developed and supply outpaces demand.
This also ignores the fact that the desert Southwest will continue to get hotter: "It's been a record hot summer in many cities across the nation. Phoenix is no exception. This Sonoran Desert metropolis already records more days over 100 degrees than any other major U.S. city. Now, climate models predict Phoenix will soon get even hotter." Sparwling urban heat islands won't make it an attractive place people will want to continue moving to.
http://www.npr.org/2012/08/14/158776...-hotter-future