[Leo the Dog]

Don,
Youre probably right that Phoenix will grow slower. It would be nearly impossible to maintain growth rates of the boom decades of a much smaller region. LA has slowed big time compared to its boom period, yet continues to transform. Phoenix area will still add a few million people in 50 years. To say that Phoenix will continue the trends of the past 50 years another 50 years is just short sighted. Global events and the global economy will influence AZ quite a bit (energy costs alone).

AZ has always had an image problem, but that hasn't stopped the growth in the past. Most people don't consider that when they move to AZ. Remember the controversy of MLK holiday in AZ 20 years ago? I don't believe that stopped the growth of the 90s. This isn't a new phenomenon rather it's consistent with AZ history. People in CA have already forgotten about 1070. You'd be surprised how many people don't give a shit about or have never heard of local AZ politics.

Even if there are zero 500ft+ buildings built ever again (let's be honest, it's kind of silly in a city like Phx or most other cities not constrained by natural features, hong kong/boston/NYC/sf) the CBDs could still become dense enough to support a great multi-modal train system. Phoenix could go verticle with 5-10 story row houses. Even LA doesn't need supertalls, there is just too much redevelopable land in the basin for this.

My point being, a lot can happen in 50 years! Just look how much things have changed since 1962 in maricopa county, just imagine what could happen by 2062.