Interesting stuff happening in my riding. The Bloc may be on the verge of a repeat win and holding onto its first seat in the urban capital region:
Interesting how the wishful thinkers in the Ottawa media have for weeks been abuzz about the NDP's Boivin beating Bloquiste Nadeau hands down. The NDP has been so gung-ho on their chances in Gatineau that Jack Layton has been around at least twice (perhaps three times) in order to support Françoise Boivin.
What I suspected is happening: although lots of people like Boivin and have moved over to her, many people in Gatineau are Liberals first and foremost, no matter who the candidate is. So this hurts Boivin, who as an NDPer can't scoop enough of them up (some older Liberals probably equate the NDP with communism - seriously). Add to the fact that the Liberals have a huge machine (the biggest in fact) in the riding, whereas the NDP is barely a skeleton crew.
Tory Denis Tassé, despite being a fairly weak candidate, is benefiting from the relative strength of the Tories' national campaign. It would appear he is riding just on that.
So the (majority) federalist vote is split up almost exactly in three.
And Nadeau's 33% support is almost bang-on with the % who voted Oui in this riding in the 1995 independence referendum. I just can't see his numbers going down. At the most he'll pick up a few points from the undecided group.
So Françoise Boivin is left with the huge task of working with a tiny organization to try and move, in about two weeks, from 21% to at least 37 or 38%, where she's going to have to end up if she is to beat Nadeau. It's not impossible, but it'll be really tough at this point I'd say. If I were the national NDP I'd pitch in to give her a hand.