Lower Mainland Population Thread

[LeftCoaster]

Thought this might be a good idea, especially with the census data due to be released early next year.

Just to get things started I was quite surprised to find that the BCstats estimates pegged the lower mainland to have a population of roughly 2.7 million people this year. I had no idea it was that high, I always put it at around 2.5 on a good day. Anyway I put together a little chart trying to predict future growth of the metro and frazer valley as a whole. Of course the numbers are just simple YoY growth percentages, but it is averaged off the last 5 years which saw a substantial boom and bust so seemed to me to be a pretty good sample period. Anyway here is what I came up with:


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I assume that in all likelyhood the fraser valley will grow faster in the future at the expense of the metro but over the last 5 years it hasnt so I didnt bother trying to speculate to what extent it will grow faster.

Thoughts? Anyone else surprised at the population of the lower mainland?

[delboy]

Vancouver proper has seen remarkable growth over the past 20 year or so going from around 450 k to over 650 k ....that's about a 40 percent change.

[LeftCoaster]

Forgot to post where I got the info from, lots of good data here:
http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/po...nEstimates.pdf

Interesting note, especially for pinoin, from 2009-2010 the municipality with the highest growth rate was not surrey but in fact the City of North Vancouver.

[Pinion]

Originally Posted by LeftCoaster

Interesting note, especially for pinoin, from 2009-2010 the municipality with the highest growth rate was not surrey but in fact the City of North Vancouver.

Not surprising at all to me. CNV is frequently forgotten about/overlooked, but I did my research before I chose to buy here in 2006. It was ripe with potential and is starting to fulfill it. Soon it'll be a hot spot and way too expensive like the rest of the north shore.

With Marine drive under a construction boom along with central Lonsdale now it's only going to continue.

[mr.sandbag]

what i find most facinating is the fact that where do you put 220k people... housing ofcourse, we added the city of burnaby to the lower mainland in the last 5 years.

i think this has had a huge impact on housing prices over the last 5 years. Yes, the current bump in prices in Richamond and West side of vancouver is due to an influx of foriegn money, but the main driving force has been population growth. here a few facts

1. financial crisis hit 2008,
2. everyone stops buying... remember dec 2008, i think there were around 50 homes bought in that month, i remember because I was one of them
3. most large developers put thier developments on hold or scaled back the release of them, this created a small hole in the supply of new homes (condos and houses)
4. continued pop growth at just under 50k a year
5. run-up to the olympics and the games themselves selling the city to the world
6. all the geographical restrictions and policies in place that restrict growth.

what does this mean, i find it hard to think there is a bubble here in vancouver and the only serious correction (-10%) of the housing prices will come when the pop growth slows considerably.

anyways the pop growth has been pretty amazing for the 5 years

[delboy]

Originally Posted by mr.sandbag

what i find most facinating is the fact that where do you put 220k people... housing ofcourse, we added the city of burnaby to the lower mainland in the last 5 years.

i think this has had a huge impact on housing prices over the last 5 years. Yes, the current bump in prices in Richamond and West side of vancouver is due to an influx of foriegn money, but the main driving force has been population growth. here a few facts

1. financial crisis hit 2008,
2. everyone stops buying... remember dec 2008, i think there were around 50 homes bought in that month, i remember because I was one of them
3. most large developers put thier developments on hold or scaled back the release of them, this created a small hole in the supply of new homes (condos and houses)
4. continued pop growth at just under 50k a year
5. run-up to the olympics and the games themselves selling the city to the world
6. all the geographical restrictions and policies in place that restrict growth.

what does this mean, i find it hard to think there is a bubble here in vancouver and the only serious correction (-10%) of the housing prices will come when the pop growth slows considerably.

anyways the pop growth has been pretty amazing for the 5 years

yes it has been impressive. The year before the Lympics, vancouver city grew by 14 k! I wouldn't be suprised if the city passed 700 k in the next 7 years or so.

[giallo]

Cool thread.
I think it's apt to include the Fraser Valley in to the metro population stats as a lot of the population there commutes to work within the metro.
But yeah, 2.7 million people. Amazing growth.

[LeftCoaster]

Was just playing around with my population spreadsheet again and wanted to see how big Vancouver might be in my lifetime.

Given my current age it is very reasonable to think I will like to see at least 2065. In 2065 if current 5 year growth trends hold out the lower mainland will have over 7.5 million inhabitants.

Backtracking the LM should hit 5 million in 2043, with Vancouver proper hitting 5 million at 2049, not that it would make much of a difference at that point though as by the time the LM is 5 million there wont be much of a difference between the lower mainland and metro Vancouver given the space and density needed to support 5 million people.

And yes I know using historical growth rates is a completely useless way to predict future growth rates this far out, I just thought it was fun and a somewhat plausible way of predicting the future of the city.

[Canadian Mind]

It's interesting considering that translink used to expect only 3.2 in the metro by 2041, we'll be there almost 10 years ahead of time.

[squeezied]

well, birth rates will be decreasing and we can't always depend on our current immigration trends

[SFUVancouver]

Anybody know when the 2011 Census data will begin to trickle out? Any recollection when it happened with the 2006 Census data?

[duener]

^^I thought it normally took 6-12 months for them to compile the data and then slowly release it. Are you looking for anything in particular?

These maps at the Vancouver Sun are quite fascinating:

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/met...ped/index.html

It looks like East Van and Richmond have the lowest incomes in the region. As well, the low income areas seem to correlate with the areas with the most non-English speakers.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by duener

...It looks like East Van and Richmond have the lowest incomes in the region. As well, the low income areas seem to correlate with the areas with the most non-English speakers.

Richmond is surprising, though if you pay very little tax in Canada, I suppose it is registered as "low income".

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Richmond is surprising, though if you pay very little tax in Canada, I suppose it is registered as "low income".

Could be illegal income. Could also be a high proportion of people spending beyond their means to "keep up with the Joneses"

Could be certain cultures are just more thrifty with their money, using all that Starbucks' money towards a new Mercedes.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

Could be illegal income. Could also be a high proportion of people spending beyond their means to "keep up with the Joneses"

Could be certain cultures are just more thrifty with their money, using all that Starbucks' money towards a new Mercedes.

Except thriftiness isn't part of the equation, as this graphs reported income (not spending).

[twoNeurons]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Except thriftiness isn't part of the equation, as this graphs reported income (not spending).

Yep, thus having a small income(aka poor), but still being able to a Lexus or BMW. Not saying it's the case, but just a thought.

[Metro-One]

yeah, it is no big secret that many Chinese, especially newly immigrated Chinese, do a looot of work under the table. Also many are satellite students or families who receive money from abroad. I have several friends who live with their mom and siblings in Canada but their dad still lives and works in Taiwan or Hong Kong.

I dont know how that would work for reporting income then.

[teriyaki]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

yeah, it is no big secret that many Chinese, especially newly immigrated Chinese, do a looot of work under the table. Also many are satellite students or families who receive money from abroad. I have several friends who live with their mom and siblings in Canada but their dad still lives and works in Taiwan or Hong Kong.

I dont know how that would work for reporting income then.

It wouldn't get reported afaik. The father is the one with the income, so they'll be taxed accordingly to wherever they are resident

[WBC]

Don't forget that those are surveys not actual incomes. According to this map people living in some parts of New West make more money then people in Point Grey. Yeah Right...And apparently East Van and Richmond are poorer then most of the region.

Maybe taxman should visit those folks in Point Grey and figure out how can you build a 1+ mill house on a 30K of median income.

However, it has to be said that they are using median income which is a measure that is not affected by extremes on the either end of the scale.

[MarkL]

Originally Posted by WBC

Don't forget that those are surveys not actual incomes. According to this map people living in some parts of New West make more money then people in Point Grey. Yeah Right...And apparently East Van and Richmond are poorer then most of the region.

Maybe taxman should visit those folks in Point Grey and figure out how can you build a 1+ mill house on a 30K of median income.

However, it has to be said that they are using median income which is a measure that is not affected by extremes on the either end of the scale.

The taxman will probably find people who don't have a lot of income but have been in their houses for more than 40 years, like our family friends (retired UBC profs) who live in Point Grey and bought their house on 2 acres for something like 75 thousand dollars.