City Murder Rates

[Unity77]

Twin Cities CSA Update (those in bold have been updated or added)

Minneapolis - 32
St. Paul - 13
Andover - 2
Arden Hills - 1
Belle Plaine - 1
Blaine - 1
Brooklyn Center - 2
Brooklyn Park - 1
Burnsville - 1
Chaska - 1
Chisago County - 1
Columbia Heights - 1
East Bethel - 1
Faxon Township - 1
Fridley - 2
Hastings - 1
Hopkins - 1
Hudson, WI - 1
Lakeville - 1
Little Canada - 1
Lynden Township - 1
Mounds View - 3
New Brighton - 1
Prior Lake - 1
Red Wing - 1
Richfield - 1
Robbinsdale - 1
Rosemount - 1
St. Louis Park - 1
Zimmerman - 2

[LivingInExile]

San Francisco has a lot of income inequality.

[KevinFromTexas]

San Antonio up to 111 now.

Body of man, 55, found set on fire - [Crime date 11/15/08] - [Media report 11/16/08.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/loc...t_on_fire.html

[GraniteStoneNY]

i was always with the impression that highest murder rates per capita of major US cities were

1. Memphis, TN
2. Newark, NJ

is this true?

[Dallas_BJJ]

GraniteStoneNY-Although those cities typically have high murder rates for their respective sizes they are not typically at the number one spot as far as murders per capita goes.

[tech12]

Originally Posted by FresnoFacts

Good work. It would probably help to also match those numbers with the population per sq mile to look at cities of similiar density.

There are a lot of factors to consider besides murders per 100,000 to make an even comparison between cities. Murder per 100,000 is simply a quick and dirty measure.

Density could be a measure. Another would be economics.

Some useful measures might be percent of population living in poverty or median household (or per capita) income vs. homicide.

For example, going back to smoker's original chart, San Francisco has a homicide rate of 13.2/100K and Indianapolis is 13.6/100K. They appear similiar.

But when we add median household income it looks like this.
San Francisco - homicides 13.2/100K - median household income $68,023
Indianapolis - homicides 13.6/100K - median household income $44,325.

That raises a lot of questions about San Francisco's crime, poverty, etc. given the much higher income in SF.

very true. There's actually a study carried out by Georgia State University that covers this very topic. They call it "adjusting homicide rates" and they take things such as demographics into account as well as the murder rate. In fact after adjustment, they rated San Francisco as having the "highest" (maybe most abnormal would be a better word?) murder rate of any major city in the US, in 2003, 2004, and 2005. In 2006 it dropped to 7, and it was number 3 in 2002.

their methods (which don't include number of murders per square mile...I wonder how that might factor in):

The statistical model used to estimate adjusted homicide rates for the 21 US cities was specified as follows:

HomRate = a + b1(Disadvan) + b2(Samres), where

HomRate = Homicides per 100,000 city residents

Disadvan = A factor representing the level of economic and social disadvantage that

combines four highly correlated variables (factor loadings in parentheses):

the poverty rate (.892); male unemployment rate (.953); % black (.947); and

% female headed families w/own children under 18 (.956)

Samres = % persons living in same residence 5 or more years

The homicide data are from the FBI’s Preliminary Uniform Crime Report, 2002. All other data are from the 2000 census.

The model was estimated using ordinary least squares on the 2000-2001 average homicide rates for the 21 cities. The parameter estimates from this model were then applied to the 2002 homicide rates. The model explains nearly 70% of the variation in homicide rates across the cities. The estimation results are as follows:

HomRate = 34.607 + 12.520(Disadvan) + -.294(Samres)

F2, 18 = 19.246; p < .001; R2 = .681; N = 21

here's the link:http://www.cjgsu.net/initiatives/ICD-reports.htm

and here's a list of the adjusted and unadjusted rankings for 2006: http://www.cjgsu.net/initiatives/Hom...09-25-City.pdf

[Smoker]

Thanks for pointing out I had been using the water area and thanks too for doing the murder rates per square mile. I took your suggestion and started to do it but it seemed like a similar repeat of the per 100,000 population data. If you have a large land mass/pop. you can have a lot of murders and still look safe., if you don't the city looks dangerous by comparison. I took the density numbers out because they didn't seem relevant, or are they?

I thought the land area could be made equal by taking the largest, Jacksonville with 765 sq. mi. (half the size of Rhode Island), and dividing the other city areas into it or vice versa, taking that percent and multiplying, but that wasn't making sense. With all the data we have access to we should be able to arrive at something similar to /100k, another way to see things?

I'll get back to the links you provided for Georgia U. That site might give us some ideas.

[NYC4Life]

Quiet trends will not last long.

[Smoker]

Originally Posted by TXLove

Houston has been at 238 since before Hurricane Ike if im not mistken...Have they not been releasing theeir numbers lately?

When was hurricane Ike? The 238 posted for Houston is for the end of September, according to HPD. They update by the month and seem slow about getting around to it. We may not know about October until sometime in December. Maybe you can find a news article with updated numbers?

[tech12]

Originally Posted by Smoker

Thanks for pointing out I had been using the water area and thanks too for doing the murder rates per square mile. I took your suggestion and started to do it but it seemed like a similar repeat of the per 100,000 population data. If you have a large land mass/pop. you can have a lot of murders and still look safe., if you don't the city looks dangerous by comparison. I took the density numbers out because they didn't seem relevant, or are they?

I thought the land area could be made equal by taking the largest, Jacksonville with 765 sq. mi. (half the size of Rhode Island), and dividing the other city areas into it or vice versa, taking that percent and multiplying, but that wasn't making sense. With all the data we have access to we should be able to arrive at something similar to /100k, another way to see things?

I'll get back to the links you provided for Georgia U. That site might give us some ideas.

I know that i think the closest to best way to get crime stats for cities (there can't ever be one "perfect" way because there are so many unique factors to consider) would be in combining all of these things...crime rates per 100,000, density, city size, demographics, crimes per square mile, etc...If I were better at math I would try to think of something, but I really have no idea where to go with all the info (i guess that's why the people at places like Georgia State do all these studies, and not someone like me ). I know it's on the right track to somehow compile this all together...your idea with using Jacksonville's area and dividing sounds interesting too...I just don't really know what to make of it with my limited math skills. Using just murder rates/crime rates alone isn't really that useful in the bigger picture. I wonder if the FBI will ever get around to updating their methods?

[dtoronto]

Something positive... The City has been 24 days without a homicide, and in that time period, 1 in the overall GTA, which was in Mississauga. As of today the GTA is at 90 murders and should be well below last years total of 113 by the end of the year.



By GTA and Region
Greater Toronto Area
Population: 5,628,471
Homicides: 90

Toronto
Population: 2,503,281
Homicides: 61

Peel Region
Population: 1,159,405
Homicides: 25

Durham Region
Population: 561,258
Homicides: 3

York Region
Population: 965,001
Homicides: 1

Halton Region
Population: 439,526
Homicides: 0


By City
Toronto
Population: 2,503,281
Homicides: 61

Brampton
Population: 444, 158
Homicides: 9

Mississauga
Population: 713,850
Homicides: 16

Oshawa
Population: 141,590
Homicides: 1

Pickering
Population: 91,892
Homicides: 2

Georgina
Population: 42, 346
Homicides: 1

[tech12]

29 for San Jose, after a woman was shot to death last night.

[KevinFromTexas]

Originally Posted by KevinFromTexas

San Antonio up to 111 now.

Body of man, 55, found set on fire - [Crime date 11/15/08] - [Media report 11/16/08.
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/loc...t_on_fire.html

Follow up.

Teens charged in homeless man's death
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/loc...ns_death_.html

[pvd]

Originally Posted by Smoker

Are you sure your Dallas figures are correct? On August 22, Dallas Morning News released figures stating that the 2008 homicide rate of 104 was lower than the previous year at approx. 140 for the same period. So therefore, unless there has been a tremendous surge in murders between August 22nd and today your figures seem to be incorrect. I am interested to know the correct figures if anyone can research and find out.

[tablemtn]

It's also worth noting that San Francisco's police chief and district attorney are both particularly ineffective and incompetent at their jobs. That's an opinion, but it is very well supported by the record.

[Smoker]

Originally Posted by pvd

Are you sure your Dallas figures are correct? On August 22, Dallas Morning News released figures stating that the 2008 homicide rate of 104 was lower than the previous year at approx. 140 for the same period. So therefore, unless there has been a tremendous surge in murders between August 22nd and today your figures seem to be incorrect. I am interested to know the correct figures if anyone can research and find out.

www.crimereportslive.com

See my previous post #1685 on page 85 about this. We were hoping this site was providing false numbers and instead it looks very legitimate.

[Smoker]

Atlanta 79 (Nov 17)
Camden 48 (Nov 15)
Cincinnati 67 (Nov 16)
Columbus 98 (Nov 16)

Compton - "A note to our readers ... The Homicide Report is going on a hiatus."
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/homi...-to-our-r.html

Dallas 250 (Nov 18)
Flint 31 (Nov 13) Source claims there is more than this, that their list is incomplete.
Kansas City 119 (Nov 16)
Little Rock 62 (Nov 16)
Newark 56 (Nov 17)
New York 455 (Nov 16)
St. Louis 147 (Nov 15)
Trenton 19 (Nov 14)
Youngstown 26 (Nov 12)


Man practicing a quick draw shoots himself in leg

Police said a bullet from a revolver entered the 61-year-old man's leg just below the left knee and lodged in his foot.
http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=456&sid=1498546

[pvd]

Originally Posted by Smoker

www.crimereportslive.com

See my previous post #1685 on page 85 about this. We were hoping this site was providing false numbers and instead it looks very legitimate.

Thanks for reply and the source. I still would interested in a follow up with this. Maybe this site you are using is covering all of DFW of even Dallas county? 250 homicides are more than all of last year and the local news agencies had reported a significant decrease in murder related crime. Dallas Morning News reported a sharp decrease in late August of about 104 murders there would have had to be a killing spree of 146 to have taken place in the last 2 1/2 months for these number tp be true. I would also think that if this figure were true then wouldn't the Dallas media be all over it by now? Not necessarily denying the legitimacy site's figures, just seems really odd for such a huge discrepancy.

[pvd]

Here's a reporting from Pegasus (since DallasNews.com website is down).


Friday, August 22, 2008

Murders in Dallas down by 25% in 2008
By Pegasus News wire

Email Print Tell us your story Comments (2)

DALLAS — The incidence of murders is down according to the Dallas police department.

There have been 105 murders in the city in 2008 compared with 140 by this time in 2007, which represents a drop of 25%.

There's been a drop in crime overall of 7%, but the police also connect the decrease in murders to a stronger campaign from the narcotics squad against drugs.

[BigDan35]

^^ Seems good enough for me! I say change Dallas's murder #. 240 seemed kind of high anyways