New Opinion Poll - Mayor Gregor Robertson

[Stingray2004]

Angus Reid Strategies, the pollster with the most precise numbers for the 2009 provincial election, has just released a new opinion poll regarding Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson.

The key findings:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of Gregor Robertson’s performance as Mayor of Vancouver?

Approve: 43%
Disapprove: 47%
Net: -4

2. All things considered, do you think Gregor Robertson deserves re-election as Mayor of Vancouver in 2011?

Yes: 31%
No: 40%
Net: -9

3. Overall, do you support or oppose the decision to add a separated bike lane on Hornby Street?

Yes: 42%
No: 53%
Net - 11

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content...litics_VAN.pdf

With those net negative figures, Robertson is certainly not a shoo-in for re-election in 2011.

[Yume-sama]

Luckily Gregor doesn't listen to his subjects, let alone opinion polls.

I'd bet he does get re-elected, anyways~

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by Yume-sama

Luckily Gregor doesn't listen to his subjects, let alone opinion polls.

I'd bet he does get re-elected, anyways~

Such cynicism! Such sadness! ..... such unfortunate truth ......

[flight_from_kamakura]

yeah, gregor will win in a walk. the pollster's media comments when he released the results were something to the effect of "this is an astonishingly high approve for a canadian mayor". anyway, election is exactly a year away, the hornby bike route will be beloved/accepted as necessary by then, and i predict that vision will come in with another good solid majority, and robertson will stay major.

[Stingray2004]

I dunno about that.

Robertson's approval ratings have gone from:

1. Stratcom's 78% in its May, 2010 survey;

2. To Justason's 49% in its August, 2010 survey;

3 To 43% today with ARS.

Looks like a downhill trajectory to me. Municipal politicians always have higher approval ratings than provincial/federal politicians. It's the nature of the beast.

Even COPE mayor Larry Campbell had a much higher 72% approval rating with Ipsos, eight months in advance of the November, 2005 election.

[cabotp]

Bike Lane on Hornby
More than half of respondents (53%) oppose the decision to add a separated bike lane on Hornby Street, while two-in-five (42%) are in favour of it. Core opposition to this idea comes from motorists. Three-in-four respondents who drive to work or school (74%) disagree with the separated bike lane on Hornby Street. Conversely, Vancouverites who ride a bike (86%), walk (52%) or rely on public transit (55%) support the decision.

Talk about shocking

Interesting how they never asked about the bike lanes on the Burrard Bridge or Dunsmuir.

Either way I've never liked polls as it all comes down to who the pollsters talked to. Which can have a huge impact on the outcome of the poll.

[SpongeG]

Mayor Gregor Robertson enjoys 'rare' level of popular support in Vancouver

But only 31% think Robertson deserves to be re-elected

By Jeff Lee, Vancouver Sun


Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/May...#ixzz14jUh47fB

[twoNeurons]

And only 29% will go to the polls.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by twoNeurons

And only 29% will go to the polls.

But its usually the more affluent who vote, and according to the poll they're least likely to vote for Robertson. Isn't Barack Obama's approval rating about the same, and he just took a "shellacking". Couple that with the fact nobody's really providing Robertson with organized opposition at this point, and he really shouldn't be feeling too smug. I'm actually surprised the bike lane drew such a high negative rating.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by whatnext

But its usually the more affluent who vote, and according to the poll they're least likely to vote for Robertson. Isn't Barack Obama's approval rating about the same, and he just took a "shellacking". Couple that with the fact nobody's really providing Robertson with organized opposition at this point, and he really shouldn't be feeling too smug. I'm actually surprised the bike lane drew such a high negative rating.

In regards to the bike lane. It really depends on who the pollsters talked to. If they happened to talk that majority of people who drive than chances are the bike lanes are going to get a lower rating. While if they happened by chance to find more people who cycle or walk or take transit than chances are the bike lanes would have gotten a higher rating.

It is the biggest reason why I feel polls are meaningless. In fact while I can't prove it I do feel that polls influence how people vote or whether they vote or not. Thus possibly changing the outcome of an election.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by cabotp

It is the biggest reason why I feel polls are meaningless.

Public opinion polls are the highest coin in the political realm.

This opinion poll was undertaken by ARS and here's their track record for the 2009 election:

2009 General Election Results (with ARS poll figures in brackets):

BC Liberals 45.8% (44%)
BC NDP 42.1% (42%)
BC Greens 8.2% (10%)

Bingo! That was virtually bang-on.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Public opinion polls are the highest coin in the political realm.

This opinion poll was undertaken by ARS and here's their track record for the 2009 election:

2009 General Election Results (with ARS poll figures in brackets):

BC Liberals 45.8% (44%)
BC NDP 42.1% (42%)
BC Greens 8.2% (10%)

Bingo! That was virtually bang-on.

So what if that poll was virtually bang on. My point is that polls by the nature of how the results are produced may not always give a true picture of what people really think. While the questions in this poll were fairly straight forward. In the past political parties have produced their own polls wording the questions in such a way to get the results they want. Both sides have done this.

I'm not saying this poll isn't accurate just that I always viewed the results of any poll with a questionable thought.

The percentage of people that are "not sure". Other than being not sure. It gives no indication on whether those people lean a bit more one way or the other on a question.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by cabotp

In regards to the bike lane. It really depends on who the pollsters talked to. If they happened to talk that majority of people who drive than chances are the bike lanes are going to get a lower rating. While if they happened by chance to find more people who cycle or walk or take transit than chances are the bike lanes would have gotten a higher rating..

Not really. The majority of Vancouverites drive, not bike. Even if, like myself, they don't commute downtown they commute elsewhere, and wonder where Mayor Moonbeam will strike next to screw up their commute. Even under the most optimistic City scenario cyclists will only be a very small percentage of trips.

The fact that only 31% think Gregor deserves to be re-elected must be giving the Visionistas concern. A relatively strong opposition candidate (not that the NPA currently has one) could easily capture the mayor's chair. Good marketing for the opposition could also easily cast Vision in a very negative light, as Rob Ford did to the lefties in Toronto.

I'd be very curious to see if Gregor the opportunist attempts to bump Carole James out of the NDP leadership before the next provincial election, in the same way he bailed to run for mayor.

[cabotp]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Not really. The majority of Vancouverites drive, not bike. Even if, like myself, they don't commute downtown they commute elsewhere, and wonder where Mayor Moonbeam will strike next to screw up their commute. Even under the most optimistic City scenario cyclists will only be a very small percentage of trips.

The fact that only 31% think Gregor deserves to be re-elected must be giving the Visionistas concern. A relatively strong opposition candidate (not that the NPA currently has one) could easily capture the mayor's chair. Good marketing for the opposition could also easily cast Vision in a very negative light, as Rob Ford did to the lefties in Toronto.

I'd be very curious to see if Gregor the opportunist attempts to bump Carole James out of the NDP leadership before the next provincial election, in the same way he bailed to run for mayor.

I realize that the vast majority of Vancouverites drive. Thus any poll on the the bike lanes is more than likely going to have a negative response. It doesn't mean the response is better for the city. Just that the response is based on the people polled and their experiences.

[BCPhil]

Originally Posted by cabotp

Talk about shocking

Interesting how they never asked about the bike lanes on the Burrard Bridge or Dunsmuir.

Either way I've never liked polls as it all comes down to who the pollsters talked to. Which can have a huge impact on the outcome of the poll.

Well, a true poll should be representational of the populace being studied. So if you are polling Vancouver voters, your random samples should be large and random enough so that if you were to repeat the survey with 100 different groups, it would be the same (within a point or two) 95 times. There are actually tried and true methods of guaranteeing randomness in pollees. Usually you don't stand on the corner Hornby and Georgia and talk to people at 10:30am as that is actually not a random sample of Vancouverites, it's actually a specific subset of people.

What I find surprising in the numbers that you quoted are how marginally the non-driver/biker segment support the bike lane. Why do 48% of walkers and 45% of transit users not support the bike lanes? The fact that people who aren't affected are split shoes that about 50% of people not affected by policies seem to not like how they are made. Do 48% of walkers not approve of the lanes because they don't like the lanes, or because they don't like the way the city just steamrolled them in?

[PoscStudent]

From what I've read and seen on him over the last couple of years I had assumed Gregor was doing a good job.

[vanlaw]

Gregor is a flake. I don't dislike him as much as Sullivan, but that would be pretty hard to beat. What, exactly, has Gregor done? I cycle regularly, and i think the separated bike lanes are a ridiculous waste of money that has only divided the "us and them" camp even more.

[whatnext]

Looks like new polling shows attitudes hardening against Mayor Gregor. I'm a bit surprised that hypothetically naming Suzanne Anton as mayoral candidate vaults the NPA into striking distance of getting the mayor's chair.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1818229/

[Stingray2004]

This opinion poll was prepared by Justason Market Intelligence, which also released a poll back in August.

Compared to JMI's August numbers, Mayor Robertson's disapproval rating has jumped from 22% to 34%.

What's more interesting, if the NPA nominated a mayoral candidate (councillor Suzanne Anton in this hypothesis), Vision Vancouver holds a slim, statistically insignificant, lead over the NPA of 41% to 38%.

Justason Market Intelligence
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Vancouver, BC (November 30, 2010)

NPA Closing In On the Vision Vancouver Lead

When the pollsters tested a possible candidate, Suzanne Anton succeeds in narrowing the gap between NPA and Vision even further to a statistical tie (38% and 41% respectively).

Barb Justason, principal of Justason Market Intelligence, point outs that this was a hypothetical test.

Suzanne Anton has not declared she would be interested in running for mayor. “What the research does tell us though is that a declared candidate can be a game changer in Vancouver.”

http://www.justasonmi.com/city_omni_...0_nov_2010.pdf

[whatnext]

Interesting that according to Frances Bula's blog, Tung Chan did not fare as well in the hypothetical poll match-up as Suzanne Anton.
http://www.francesbula.com/2011-vanc...gor-robertson/


A Globe & Mail poll (admittedly, not as statistically valid) shows even more buyers' remorse over Gregor:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...rticle1818219/