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Old Posted May 8, 2011, 8:55 PM
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Join Date: Apr 2004
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Federal Election 2011 - A look at the results

To get a broader perspective of the 2011 election results, I've mapped them

NATIONAL RESULTS

National-level maps of the 2011 election results.

The first map shows popular vote and seat totals by province, and seat totals by region. The second shows results by riding, and the percentage of the vote the winning MP received.




This map greys out any seats where the MP won with less than 50% of the vote. If we had a run-off voting system, these greyed out ridings would likely have had a run-off vote in mid June.



Lastly, this chart shows popular vote and seat totals in bar graph form, and the probable layout of parliament. (A speaker is not elected until Parliament resumes sitting.)



RESULTS BY PARTY, BY RIDING

These maps show the popular vote for each party, by riding. It allows us to identify where a party does well, and where it does poorly. Note that for the Green Party, the scale has been cut in half to improve legibility.







LIBERAL/NDP MERGER?

Suppose that in 2009, the Liberals and NDP merged, perhaps calling the new party the Liberal Democrats. Then assume that everyone who voted for either the Liberals or NDP in the real election, would have voted for this new party.

Under both of these assumptions, you can figure out what the vote would have looked like in this alternate reality scenario.

In reality, at least 25% of the Liberal vote would likely go to the Conservative Party. It is also possible that members of the NDP further to the left on the political scale would split off into another party. Had the Liberals and NDP merged two years ago, the election results would likely have been much closer.

I don't endorse the merger of the Liberals and NDP; this is simply an experiment to see what such a result might look like.

The first map shows popular vote and seat totals by province, and seat totals by region. The second shows results by riding, and the percentage of the vote the winning MP received.




This map greys out any seats where the MP won with less than 50% of the vote. If we had a run-off voting system, these greyed out ridings would likely have had a run-off vote in mid June. In most cases, a candidate winning without a majority of the vote is the result of a vote split due to the Green Party or Bloc Québécois.



This map shows popular vote for the Liberal Democrats, based on the previously mentioned assumptions about who would vote for the party. The popular vote for the Conservatives by riding would not have changed, but about 40 Conservative seats, primarily in urban areas, would change hands.



Lastly, this chart shows popular vote and seat totals in bar graph form, and the probable layout of parliament.



Shortly after the agreement between the Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois was signed in late 2008, and talk of a merger between the Liberals and NDP began, I made a similar map showing hypothetical results based on the 2006

election. You can view that map here. It would have results in a minority Liberal Democrat government with 154 seats. The Conservatives would form opposition with 111 seats, the Bloc Québécois would be the third party with 41 seats, and there would be two indepedents. The biggest difference between the two is the presence of the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc's four wins in this year's election were the result of vote splitting between the NDP and Liberals.

Discuss.
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