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  #301  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:05 AM
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  #302  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:06 AM
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Whew! Kept my MLA (Kent Hehr) and no win for Wildrose. Best case scenario, as far as I'm concerned. Disappointed in the voter turnout as well though.

So, between this and the last civic election, are we pretty much to the point where conventionally conducted polls are meaningless?
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  #303  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:11 AM
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Relieved.
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  #304  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:12 AM
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How about that? Albertans don't want a party where homophobia and racism is tolerated running the show. Thank goodness.

Sure, it'd be nice to see someone else other than the PCs take over, but when the alternative is Wild Rose... I'll take PC any day.
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  #305  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:13 AM
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Redford's talking about a "record number of voters". I know Alberta has grown a lot in recent years, but that seems premature based on voter turnout numbers I've seen so far.
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  #306  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:23 AM
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Originally Posted by freeweed View Post
Random observation by my sig. other...

We're watching the various speeches by the party leaders as they concede/celebrate. NDP/Lib - quite the diverse crowd they attract (obviously). Raj especially, tons of guys in turbans at his party HQ.

Then we're off to Wild Rose land. Huge, excited crowd as Smith gives her speech. Camera pans around quite a bit. S.O. starts saying "hmm, they're all white". Eventually she's making jokes like "Any minorities? I'll settle for just one. Brown guy? Yellow guy? Anyone?". And of course the PC HQ had at least one turban on display, just to continue the joke.

It was pretty funny. I'm sure it has more to do with the limited room in a party HQ, but it played into the stereotypes quite well.
Well, also had a lot to do with the locations. Smith was in High River whereas Redford was in downtown Calgary and Liberals and NDP were in Edmonton.
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  #307  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Reesonov View Post
Well, also had a lot to do with the locations. Smith was in High River whereas Redford was in downtown Calgary and Liberals and NDP were in Edmonton.
Of course. It also reflects where each party's focus is.

Favourite joke of the night so far: "So, another majority government. Well, the Wild Rose have at least something to be happy about - they hate minorities".
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  #308  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:26 AM
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Originally Posted by freeweed View Post
Redford's talking about a "record number of voters". I know Alberta has grown a lot in recent years, but that seems premature based on voter turnout numbers I've seen so far.
What irked me and causes me some fear is that she said that this result is proof that Albertan's want change. What is it about Alberta not voting for the Wildrose who so clearly fell on their heads in the final stretch of this election campaign and who clearly had some seriosuly weak MLA's who were of questionable character that says to Redford that "Alberta wants Change"?

Maybe Alberta just did not want a bunch of bigoted pastors running in the government or a leader that refused to admit the questionable character that those statements showed and whether those were truly the right people to be running for a position in a political party.

I do not see this result as Albertan's wanting change, they simply did not want the Wildrose running the show. Heck, they put in the same party that has been running the province for 41 years now, "you must want CHANGE!" errm, no Redford.... that actually is not what this result says. It is YOU that wants change and you are just spinning this in order to justify the changes you are clearly planning on making...

I was hoping that victory speech would ease my concerns, it actually amplified them... I dread what she might do to this province. 0.5 is a sure thing now, what is next? Allison Redford is now planning her own wish list of changes for this province and she will shoehorn them through her majoritty government... great.
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  #309  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:27 AM
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Nice. David "Save the Airport" Dorward is going to be my new MLA. I guess if you keep running in elections you may win sometime.
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  #310  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:36 AM
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Originally Posted by Urban_Genius View Post
I'm surprised Calgary didn't go to wildrose that much. I thought more might go.
Taking a look at the vote break down, and it looks like a lot of the Calgary ridings had Wildrose in very close second. Most of the Edmonton ridings that went PC had clear majorities. The difference between the two cities wasn't as strong as many predicted, and not strong enough to tilt the Wildrose into more seats, but it's certainly there.

Also looks like Liberal popular support collapsed as expected, but they won't be on the obituary page just yet.

Anybody see results from the Senate election?
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  #311  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Tropics View Post
What irked me and causes me some fear is that she said that this result is proof that Albertan's want change. What is it about Alberta not voting for the Wildrose who so clearly fell on their heads in the final stretch of this election campaign and who clearly had some seriosuly weak MLA's who were of questionable character that says to Redford that "Alberta wants Change"?

*snip*

I do not see this result as Albertan's wanting change, they simply did not want the Wildrose running the show. Heck, they put in the same party that has been running the province for 41 years now, "you must want CHANGE!" errm, no Redford.... that actually is not what this result says. It is YOU that wants change and you are just spinning this in order to justify the changes you are clearly planning on making...
A bit of Devil's Advocate here...

Perhaps "change" is a bit more nuanced than merely the name of the party in power. I think it's a commonly held belief that the PC party in Alberta has slowly been moving towards a more centrist position in general - and arguably with Redford, much moreso than ever. They're certainly not the "cut government to the bone" party of the Klein era.

The WRP and their supporters are essentially the old-time, hardline CONSERVATIVES that ran Alberta for decades. So, Redford and the PC party going forward are in fact "change" in a meaningful sense.

Now, I don't necessarily agree with all of that, but it does speak to something that's mystified me about this entire campaign. I really failed to see where the WRP is a "change" other than in name. I mean shit, they stole a page directly from Ralph's playbook and promised cheques when the government had too big of a surplus. The only "change" I saw there was a different colour on an elections result map - and perhaps a few more crazies in power, depending on how out of context certain comments are taken.

"Change" in this province would be to elect a Liberal or NDP style party. Not just "PC, now with 5% extra conservatism".
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  #312  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 4:59 AM
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Originally Posted by freeweed View Post
Redford's talking about a "record number of voters". I know Alberta has grown a lot in recent years, but that seems premature based on voter turnout numbers I've seen so far.
voters vs turn-out

1993 - 989K voters (60.21%)
1997 - 946K voters (53.75%)
2001 - 1,013K voters (53.38%)
2004 - 891K voters (45.12%)
2008 - 950K voters (40.59%)
2012 - 1,110K voters counted as of midnight (my estimate accounting for known population increase is 48% at this point)

So we already know that it was a record number of voters, though turnout is more important.

As we're talking numbers, with the Calgary municipal election, while in the prior election bronco had a huge land-slide, nenshi actually got more votes than bronco.

Last edited by suburbia; Apr 24, 2012 at 5:46 AM.
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  #313  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:01 AM
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^^ Spot on...

This race in Edmonton-Meadowlark is something else:
http://abvoteresults.mastermaq.ca/districts/39

What's the threshold for a recount?
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  #314  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:11 AM
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voters vs turn-out
2004 - 891K voters (45.12%)
2008 - 950K voters (40.59%)
Thanks. I'm sure the numbers will all make sense in the morning, it just seemed a bit early to be talking that way. I'm not surprised at a record turnout; my polling station was pretty damned busy and my ballot had to be stuffed into the box, at just after 5pm.

This particular set of numbers made me chuckle a bit. Really shows how much the last boom affected Alberta.
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  #315  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:15 AM
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Decent night, and I'm more or less satisfied with the result. It looks, at this point, like Redford, Smith, Sherman, and Mason will have all won their seats by the end of the night. The NDP made some solid gains, and the Liberals didn't lose it all. Some very good MLAs from multiple parties were elected either for the first time or are returning to office.

Bottom line: by as little as a few days ago it was Wildrose's election to lose and they blew it.
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  #316  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:18 AM
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This is the first time since 1971, when 25 of 49 PC seats were from Calgary and Edmonton, that the majority of government seats have come from the two largest cities. In fact, that was probably the only other time in this province's history that Calgary and Edmonton were represented by the majority of the government caucus. It will also be the first time since 1982 that the opposition has been majority rural (when one of the two NDP MLAs was rural and both independents, who had previously been members of Social Credit, were as well). Prior to that, the opposition had been Social Credit for two cycles and was heavily rural. In 1986 the NDP had a major break through, taking multiple seats in Edmonton and Calgary, which held in 1989. Then in 1993 the Liberals took most of Edmonton.

I'm not sure if that will have any affect on the direction of this government but it does kind of tie the election results into the forum's focus.
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  #317  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:23 AM
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Originally Posted by freeweed View Post
A bit of Devil's Advocate here...

Perhaps "change" is a bit more nuanced than merely the name of the party in power. I think it's a commonly held belief that the PC party in Alberta has slowly been moving towards a more centrist position in general - and arguably with Redford, much moreso than ever. They're certainly not the "cut government to the bone" party of the Klein era.

The WRP and their supporters are essentially the old-time, hardline CONSERVATIVES that ran Alberta for decades. So, Redford and the PC party going forward are in fact "change" in a meaningful sense.

Now, I don't necessarily agree with all of that, but it does speak to something that's mystified me about this entire campaign. I really failed to see where the WRP is a "change" other than in name. I mean shit, they stole a page directly from Ralph's playbook and promised cheques when the government had too big of a surplus. The only "change" I saw there was a different colour on an elections result map - and perhaps a few more crazies in power, depending on how out of context certain comments are taken.

"Change" in this province would be to elect a Liberal or NDP style party. Not just "PC, now with 5% extra conservatism".
It's pretty hard to say that "hardline CONSERVATIVES" governed the province for decades. Lougheed was hardly a hardline conservative (hell, economically he would left of the NDP as it exists today) and neither was Getty.
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  #318  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:26 AM
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What's the threshold for a recount?
Not sure what the provincial regulations are, but federally it's a margin of less than 1/1,000th of the votes cast. In this case, that'd mean about 15 votes, so it wouldn't be an automatic recount.
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  #319  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 5:32 AM
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The WRP and their supporters are essentially the old-time, hardline CONSERVATIVES that ran Alberta for decades.
Only they are not. The WR has way more social conservatism then the even the old PC party and their candidates with strong religious backgrounds are more akin to the USA Repulican Party then old school PC. The old school PC party was a strong politcal party with heaps of experienced MLA's and hugely experienced leadership. The old school PC party was not tied to religion in the slightest and were fiscally conservative while being fairly socially centered.

The WR are not even close to that at this time and the late screw ups in the campaign and some of the MLA's backgrounds proved that. They are way farther right on social conservative beliefs in some of the members of their party then the PC's and you simply cannot be like that in Canadian politics. A leader saying "well our candidates believe all sorts of stuff like that but the official stance of the party is different" does not wash with most Albertan's and TBH it did not even wash with me. You get people running to be MLA's in your party that believe the same thing as the party's official stance on the major issues, and getting pastors running to be MLA's in Canada is a BAD idea.
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  #320  
Old Posted Apr 24, 2012, 6:16 AM
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