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Originally Posted by YVR Bruce
Canada's strategy toward Gulf carriers seems to me to be an unusually enlightened one. It confounds me why anyone, much less this site moderator, if that is the case - would be so keen to outsource such a major national service (CDN global air travel).
Take a look at the impact on BA and Qantas. They have been hit v badly by EK with national employment impacts. BA and QF people no doubt look on with envy to Canada's policy re EK.
I operate a company within the full reach of asian competition. Perhaps Deasine might volunteer his/her livelihood. With the stated attitude, it would be comforting to learn that those in favour of EK at YVR have full exposure to such one-sided trade.
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I just commented that their business strategy is based on transit passengers. Secondly, my positions do not affect my ability to moderate. Moderators are clearly allowed to discuss in affairs but only need to step into a dispute when needed. This is the position that all moderators at SSP:Vancouver have been using.
The impact the gulf state carriers will make to Canadian carriers cannot be compared to the impact they have made to European carriers, not unless they gain fifth freedom access at European airports. For Europe, I don't really need to explain, you can't even book a ticket to Europe from the airlines website.
For routes to the pacific, transpacific routes or routes over the North Pole are shorter from every point in the country:
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Originally Posted by Statistics from GCMAP
2 segment path: 10990 mi
YVR (49°11'38"N 123°11'04"W) DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) 1.4° (N) 7306 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 80.1° (E) 3684 mi
Direct path:
YVR (49°11'38"N 123°11'04"W) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 309.1° (NW) 6392 mi
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Statistics from GCMAP
2 segment path: 10583 mi
YYZ (43°40'38"N 79°37'50"W) DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) 40.4° (NE) 6899 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 80.1° (E) 3684 mi
Direct Path:
YYZ (43°40'38"N 79°37'50"W) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 346.4° (N) 7810 mi
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The only markets Gulf State carriers can potentially affect are routes around the gulf and routes to India. Even then, it really doesn't greatly affect Canadian carriers, because most of the business on these routes are on European carriers and Asian carriers. From the west, all connection points are pretty equal. From the East, Europe still retains the advantage of geography, and if Finnair were a bit more aggressive in its routes, it would have the best position.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Statistics from GCMAP
2 segment path: 8723 mi
YVR (49°11'38"N 123°11'04"W) HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) 309.1° (NW) 6392 mi
HKG (22°18'32"N 113°54'53"E) DEL (28°34'07"N 77°06'44"E) 288.4° (W) 2331 mi
2 segment path: 8914 mi
YVR (49°11'38"N 123°11'04"W) LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W) 34.4° (NE) 4723 mi
LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W) DEL (28°34'07"N 77°06'44"E) 80.0° (E) 4191 mi
2 segment path: 8665 mi
YVR (49°11'38"N 123°11'04"W) DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) 1.4° (N) 7306 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) DEL (28°34'07"N 77°06'44"E) 75.5° (E) 1360 mi
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Statistics from GCMAP
2 segment path: 7747 mi
YYZ (43°40'38"N 79°37'50"W) LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W) 51.6° (NE) 3556 mi
LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W) DEL (28°34'07"N 77°06'44"E) 80.0° (E) 4191 mi
2 segment path: 8259 mi
YYZ (43°40'38"N 79°37'50"W) DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) 40.4° (NE) 6899 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E) DEL (28°34'07"N 77°06'44"E) 75.5° (E) 1360 mi
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I can't see how EK would have a major impact on business at YVR.
I find it pretty interesting that you brought up the BA and QF case. I've done a piece on this, and without a doubt the Kangaroo-route has been greatly affected by competition from gulf states. But it really isn't as simple as that; there are many other factors:
- Every carrier is affected by fuel prices and fuel prices do put tremendous stress on the viability of a long-haul route. BA and QF are not making any profits on their long-haul routes between Australia and Europe. BA's premium cabin ticket prices to Australia are sometimes comparable to some of their routes to Asia and the United States: but notice it takes a lot less fuel to fly to those destinations.
- Geographic positioning of QF's "Kangaroo Route" partner BA is not strategically placed and has no advantage to its competitors. For passengers connecting to BA to other destinations in Europe other than LHR, they would essentially be overflying to reach their final destination (keep in mind all routes to Europe connect at SIN, or BKK/HKG, so that makes a total of 2 connections). Not counting Gulf-state carriers, QF and BAs partnership have also been challenged by other carriers such as SQ and CX. Moving forward, this is only going to get worse with more Chinese carriers stepping into the picture. In fact, CZ cleverly brands their Europe to Australia route via Guangzhou as the "Canton Route." CAPA has done an analysis and finds carriers such as CZ are pushing airfare prices so low that European carriers can't possibly match or else they would be loosing profit on each sale. They've even got some of the traffic between Australia and the United States because of their low prices, even though it's a much longer route.
- Australia has really opened the door to gulf-state carriers, not only by granting them more slots and allowing them to increase capacity, but also allowing Australian airports as connection cities to New Zealand. Essentially, this increases competition not only for routes between Europe and Australia, but within their backyards. EK has fifth freedom routes at MEL, SYD, and BNE.
At the end of the day, there's a fixed pie businesses need to understand. There's most likely not going to be a larger pie anytime soon. The more carriers come in, the more share of the pie they are going to get, and the less of a pie you can have. If you can't compete with other carriers, you get a smaller share. Plain and simple.