Provincial Economies

[davidivivid]

The latest unemployment numbers for Quebec City were unveiled at the beginning of last month:

The Quebec City census metropolitan area (CMA) created 15,800 jobs in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the same period in 2011, for a total of 426,500 jobs.

The region also performed strongly in March with a monthly gain of 2,400 workers.

Unemployment was 5.1% in Quebec City in the first quarter of 2012, down from 6.4% last year and still one of the lowest rates in Canada.

http://www.quebecinternational.ca/ec...arter-of-2012/


Very strong value of building permits as well:

The value of building permits topped $468.5 million in the Quebec City census metropolitan area (CMA) in the first quarter of 2012, up 30% from the previous quarter.


As regards building permits, Quebec City had the strongest growth among Canada’s eight largest metropolitan regions, significantly outpacing Toronto (+9.9%), Edmonton (+5.3%) and Winnipeg (+4.9%).

http://www.quebecinternational.ca/ec...c-city-region/

[Nathan]

Originally Posted by Waterlooson

Yes indeed.... although places like Calgary and Edmonton have also been on the radar screen for many immigrants for some time now... Even Saskatoon is getting some notice.

Saskatchewan in general; Regina's been getting quite a bit of immigration over the last few years too.

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

I love these sweeping statements. Believe it or not but there are many, many immigrants (primarily Asian) who are only aware of Vancouver. In fact many mainland Chinese I have spoken too actually thought Vancouver was the capital of Canada!

Since when was Vancouver considered a small city? Btw, most of Canada's 280,000 immigrants certainly do think of Toronto over places like Moncton although there will always be some that haven't heard of Toronto.

[caltrane74]

Canadians are feeling better about the economy.

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/arti...-in-may-survey

[Acajack]

http://www.exchangemagazine.com/morn...y/12062812.htm

[Doug]

^This is yet another data point that public sector compensation is overly generous.

[Acajack]

One thing I wonder is why incomes are so low (comparatively) in the three biggest cities, and how people make ends meet in Toronto and Vancouver where housing costs are so stratospheric. (Montreal is not so bad because housing is a lot cheaper and other stuff like hydro and transit passes are also less expensive.)

So what's up with our biggest cities?

[someone123]

Yeah, I've wondered about that to. The biggest cities do have larger immigrant populations, and some immigrants have low incomes, but I'm not sure if this alone accounts for the difference.

I do think that for middle class people the cities with the highest standard of living are smaller cities like Calgary and Ottawa, not Toronto or Montreal.

Another interesting part of these statistics is that Halifax and St. John's now having incomes that are above the national average and higher than those of many other cities. They used to be below average.

[caltrane74]

It may take 10 years for an immigrant to make what a born Canadian makes. Sometimes 15 years, sometimes never.

50% of Toronto is immigrants.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

It may take 10 years for an immigrant to make what a born Canadian makes. Sometimes 15 years, sometimes never.

50% of Toronto is immigrants.

I am sure it is part of the answer but is that all there is to explain things?

I mean, if you look at the U.S. New York is one of the highest income metros (not at the top but very far from the bottom) and it is full of immigrants too. Several of the top immigration metros in the US are near the top for average incomes, whereas the top three in Canada are almost at the bottom and even below depressed cities like Windsor...

[caltrane74]

The numbers don't lie, the young couple in Toronto probably has a combined income of 70k. The numbers look right to me. - Obviously we are a centre of immigration, and poverty and we also have very wealthy people here too, which will skew to both ends of the scale. But the number right in the middle would be about right.

I'm sure the same applies to Vancouver.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by caltrane74

The numbers don't lie, the young couple in Toronto probably has a combined income of 70k. The numbers look right to me. - Obviously we are a centre of immigration, and poverty and we also have very wealthy people here too, which will skew to both ends of the scale. But the number right in the middle would be about right.

I'm sure the same applies to Vancouver.

Just wondering if it isn't indicative of a few things happening:

- growing income equality, hitting our biggest cities first before spreading to the rest of the country

- a lot of new economic activity shifting towards smaller cities (Ottawa, Calgary, Quebec City*) because of the perception that being in the big cities is too costly and too much of a hassle these days


*For example, look at the income difference between Quebec City and Montreal: almost $10,000.

[caltrane74]

Big Cities draw people that have nothing. Nothing to their names, because the social services to support them are here.

That would include immigrants.

I don't think income inequality is spreading like wildfire in our cities or even a threat to spread across the country.

[PoscStudent]

Slow growth for St. John’s, province: report

A new report from the Conference Board of Canada predicts slight growth for the St. John’s economy this year.

The report, released Thursday, predicts that, despite expected double-digit construction growth in 2012, reduced production from maturing oil wells will limit overall growth in the province, although less so in St. John’s.

St. John’s gross domestic production is forecast to grow to $8.9 billion this year, up 1.1 per cent from 2011, a dropoff from growth of 5.4 and 6.9 per cent in 2011 and 2010 respectively.

“Much of the slowdown can be blamed on weaker primary and utilities output, expected to fall in line with lower offshore oil production,” reads the report.

“Lower growth is also expected in non-commercial services and in public administration and defence as government spending is reined in.”

While non-residential construction is forecast to have “another banner year,” according to the report, the housing market is starting to feel the impact of a slower economy, resulting in a reduction in housing starts this year and next.

The provincial economy is expected to barely move the needle on the growth next year, says the Conference Board, which forecasts 0.5 per cent growth in Newfoundland and Labrador’s GDP, to $18.1 billion.

Maintenance on the Terra Nova and White Rose will cause a double-digit drop in production this year, and sagging Hibernia production means a 17 per cent drop in output for the mineral fuels industry in 2012.

Even with a full year of prod-uction from Terra Nova and

White Rose in 2013, the industry is still forecast to contract 1.4 per cent.

On the bright side, the report says growth in mining and construction will boost wages and salaries and spur job creation.

But the report also warns of potential problems on the Lower Churchill: “Opposition to the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project could push back its development schedule, dampening growth in the construction industry.”

The Conference Board’s report is slightly sunnier than a recent report from the City of St. John’s, released two weeks ago. In it, GDP is forecast to grow 0.8 per cent this year.

http://www.thetelegram.com/Business/...vince-report/1

[PoscStudent]

APEC Sees Record Levels of Investment in Atlantic Canada

St. John's, NL - The Atlantic Provinces Economic Council's 2012 Major Projects Inventory identifies a record $100 billion worth of major investment projects in various stages of development across Atlantic Canada, up 39% over last year's Inventory. The 29th edition of APEC's Inventory, which catalogues 357 major investment projects across Atlantic Canada, was released today in St. John's in conjunction with the latest issue of APEC's Atlantic Report.

The upsurge is largely due to the awarding of the naval contract to Irving Shipbuilding of Halifax which will have a large impact on investment especially later this decade. Other new mega-projects such as Shell Canada's plan to spend $970 million in offshore Nova Scotia, the possibility of a second potash mine in New Brunswick and new large housing developments also added to the region's stock of potential investment. Newfoundland and Labrador continues to lead in overall share of the Inventory at 48%.

Investment has strengthened in Atlantic Canada with current-year spending on major projects up about 8% to $12.8 billion, also a record. Newfoundland and Labrador, which has seen its current-year major project spending rise 29% to $8 billion in 2012 on strong emerging market demand for its oil and minerals, is leading growth in the region. Meanwhile, current-year major project spending fell in Nova Scotia (-4%), Prince Edward Island (-17%) and New Brunswick (-27%). Federal government capital expenditure was reduced across the region now that the stimulus period is over, while provincial government capital spending also declined in New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island as both provinces struggled to balance budgets.

The trends in the inventory suggest that opportunities for Atlantic firms will continue to rise according to Patrick Brannon, APEC Research Analyst. "Newfoundland and Labrador is in the midst of a period of very strong investment that will continue for several more years" said Brannon. "With the addition of the shipbuilding project in Halifax and a renewed focus on the Nova Scotia offshore, major project investment will be strong for years to come."

A focus of this year's Major Projects research was the impact of labour shortages in parts of the region,

"Project proponents in Atlantic Canada are increasingly concerned about the difficulty in finding an adequate supply of labour, particularly skilled workers," said Brannon. "Major project activity is surging in western Canada where high salaries and benefits are again luring away many Atlantic workers."

APEC is holding events in St. John's on June 6th, Halifax on June 12th and Moncton on June 13th to discuss the trends in the Inventory.

Major Projects Inventory at a Glance
Key points from the Atlantic Provinces Economic Council's 29th annual Major Projects Inventory:

Newfoundland and Labrador Key Points:
• APEC identifies 111 projects totalling $48.1 billion, a 11% increase in value over last year’s Inventory.
• Growth drivers are St. John’s housing developments, the Terra Nova maintenance project and mining projects in Labrador.
• The value of current-year spending in 2012 is up 28% to $8 billion.
• The rise in current-year spending is largely due to spending at the Long Harbour nickel processing facility and offshore oil activity.
 
Nova Scotia Key Points:
• APEC identifies 133 projects totalling $32.7 billion, a 122% increase in value over last year's Inventory.
• This rise is mainly due to the federal shipbuilding project but many other sectors have also seen growth in potential value including oil and gas which got a boost from new offshore exploration plans by Shell.
• The value of current-year spending on projects is down 4% in 2012 to $2.8 billion.
• The fall in current year spending is due to lower spending on Deep Panuke and on public infrastructure.

New Brunswick Key Points:
• APEC identifies 75 projects totalling $17.7 billion, a 56% rise in value from last year's Inventory.
• This increase is due to a potential potash project which is estimated at $4 billion and a long-term plan to upgrade the Mactaquac Dam costing $2 billion or more.
• The value of current-year spending in 2012 is down 27% to $1.8 billion.
• The drop in current year spending comes as most sectors performed weaker this year, led by declining public sector spending and lower investment by the manufacturing sector.

Prince Edward Island Key Points:
• APEC identifies 38 projects totalling $1.8 billion, up 3% over last year's Inventory.
• This rise is due to several new housing projects.
• The value of current-year major project spending in 2012 is down 17% to $268 million.
• This decline is due to slowing public infrastructure investment which is now more in line with pre-stimulus levels.

http://www.apec-econ.ca/about/news/v...=1&news.id=111
Nearly 50% of all invest in Atlsntic Canada is happening in Newfoundland and Labrador! Though that's probably not a good thing to be proud of.

[Acajack]

The usual suspects are not the ones you think...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...57/?cmpid=rss1

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/busines...259/story.html

[isaidso]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Several of the top immigration metros in the US are near the top for average incomes, whereas the top three in Canada are almost at the bottom and even below depressed cities like Windsor...

Toronto is a jobs producing dynamo, but doesn't produce enough high paying jobs relative to the number of people who move there year after year. The decline in manufacturing is a big culprit. Historically, this sector provided thousands of decent middle class jobs. Today that sector is decimated so lots of people end up with what's left: minimum wage jobs.

Toronto has historically had per capita income above the national average, but hasn't for quite a number of years now. Financial/professional services jobs aren't enough alone to lift Toronto from a middle income city to a high income city like Boston, New York, Washington, Philadelphia, or San Francisco. Toronto will either need manufacturing to come back in a big way or find a new economic engine to replace it.

Montreal has been a low income city for decades while Vancouver has never really had a large corporate base. You just have to look across the border at Seattle to notice the huge disparity. Seattle has tons of big firms, a big tax base, and far higher incomes.

People look at shiny skyscrapers, high end shopping districts, and opulent buildings and come to erroneous conclusions. People assume that our big cities are our wealthiest, but they aren't. These days they're very middle of the pack.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The usual suspects are not the ones you think...

When it comes to economic reporting I think there's too much of a focus on the short term and a large bias toward more volatile economies. When economic times are good we always hear about the provinces with the highest GDP growth, but often if you look over a longer period of time you find that those places are the bottom performers during bad economic times.

This isn't to say that economic performance is completely counter-intuitive if you read the news, but I think the "laggards" are often much closer to the frontrunners than people think.

Something else I've noticed is that projections have traditionally been very conservative for everywhere East of Ontario. I just saw one projection that Saskatoon is going to grow by over 2% for the next 20 years while Quebec City is going to drop down to 0.6%. Saskatoon may be growing rapidly right now, but from 1996-2006 it was growing by about 0.4% per year.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by isaidso

Toronto has historically had per capita income above the national average, but hasn't for quite a number of years now.

In the future I predict that we'll see a continued shift toward smaller, cheaper metropolitan areas in Canada similar to what has happened in the US. In the US, the largest cities are not the fastest-growing cities. They still dominate certain industries but the smaller cities offer a better quality of life for the middle class and a better economic climate for companies.

[ciudad_del_norte]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The usual suspects are not the ones you think...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...57/?cmpid=rss1

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/busines...259/story.html

Intersting. It confused me a bit at first to read one after the other. The one says that interest rates on the bonds are a function of debt default probability...and the other assumes the interest rates are debt default probability. y=x means something different than y=f(x) although I'm much better with calculus that economics so perhaps I was just reading too much into it. . I suppose overall the message in terms of where is at more risk doesn't change.