Originally Posted by Future Mayor
Skyguy, Having just read your post on the Provo Thread about Frontier, what is the likelyhood that Aligient air will have more success in Ogden than Frontier did in Provo?
I know I'm not Skyguy, but I still wanna put my two cents in on the subject.
I love love love love love love LOVE Ogden, and therefore - of course - would be tickled if this service were successful....but.....I know the chances are pretty slim - as they are with launching commercial service out of many small airports. I will, however, point out that Frontier's service from Provo to Denver was daily and Allegiant's service from Ogden to Phoenix-Mesa is twice weekly. Frontier's operations out of Provo Municipal were likely much more expensive to maintain and therefore more difficult to keep profitable than Allegiant's will be out of Ogden. I think Allegiant is taking a good approach by beginning conservatively and then expanding if successful/necessary whereas Frontier kind of went all in upfront with daily service which probably made success harder from the get go.
I will also say that the difference in destination choice may also make a difference, in a few different ways. First, while the Ogden and Provo MSA's are pretty comparable in size, the Denver MSA is home to nearly 2.6 million people while the Phoenix MSA is home to over 4.6 million, giving the Ogden-Mesa flight an advantage as it has a larger population to draw passengers from while needing to fill fewer flights to be considered a success.
Also, while I can understand WHY Frontier chose Denver (its their hub and would allow passengers to essentially connect to a myriad of additional destinations instead of limiting Provo's options to just Denver), there is really little reason besides connectivity to choose these two cities for Provo Muncipal's inaugural connection. While Denver has the obvious qualities of being a larger city and home of the Broncos (a fair amount of devoted fans live here in Utah and may have used the flight for games) and it could be argued that Provo has a small LDS/BYU draw, the cities really do little to compliment each other as destinations. I laud Allegiant for choosing Phoenix-Mesa as Ogden Hinckley's inaugural connection not just for larger population but also for connecting a warm weather and cold weather destination. In the wintertime both destinations win, with Ogdenites and other Utahns escaping to the perfect temperatures and sunny skies while Phoenecians can experience Utah's amazing skiing. In the summertime, Ogden wins for the most part, becoming a destination for those seeking relief from the scorching desert highs.
Last, I just wanted to suggest that Ogden is more of a "ski town" than Provo and so should experience more traffic generated from this than Provo did. The Ogden Valley is host to three unique resorts offering a combined 5,910 skiable acres (Snowbasin 3,000 acres - Powder Mountain 2,800 acres - Wolf Creek - 110 acres), one of which carries the distinction of having hosted Olympic events while the Sundance resort is the only in Provo and has only 450 skiable acres. Provo really had no chance as a flight ski destination with this connection as it is - it would be hard to convince customers to visit Provo for that reason when they have plenty of resorts in their own city.
I'm really not trying to say Ogden makes a better destination than Provo, but I think the route chosen is just much more appropriate for Ogden than it was for Provo. I know that Provo is still wanting to expand their commercial operations and I think that they should. A warm weather connection would really probably be a better way to begin service and I think they should look into establishing a connection into San Diego, John Wayne (Orange County), or Ontario (LA) which could really be great.