Originally Posted by brian_b
When my grandfather moved from LA to Sunnyvale in the 1950s, he bought a nice large house for about $30,000. Sold it in the early 1980s for over $300,000. Today it sells for nearly $3,000,000.
People seem to forget that during the absolute best time in the history of California, a house was only about 10-15% more expensive than a house in the midwest US and as early as the 1980s things were already getting way out of whack.
It seems that the only way to bring housing costs back down to reasonable levels is much much greater density. Doing so would allow the all-important middle class to make a comeback in the state.
On the other side of the issue is those who have been benefiting from the growing chasm for at least 30 years. They (correctly) understand that their artificially inflated property values will not continue to grow at the same rate and may even decrease.
I would not expect them to give up their fight. At all. I would also not expect LA to actually improve density enough to make a difference.
3M in Sunnyvale? Must be Cupertino schools. This brings the rest of your analysis into doubt.
Certainly most owners don't want higher density; that's true everywhere I can think of. They want more amenities but not more people to share them with. But it not only MIGHT happen in LA, it has been happening and continues to do so. Even in a doubtful economy, there are high and mid-rises in every part of town: SaMo, Glendale, the Valley, mid-Wilshire, DT, Hollywood, Ktown, ELA. It's actually a near boom in Hollywood and DT.