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  #301  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2017, 5:37 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is online now
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Some maps from Statscan today:

Calgary CMA:


Calgary Proper:


Calgary, continuous occupied area [Population Centre]:


Calgary, Economic Region:
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  #302  
Old Posted Feb 14, 2017, 7:37 PM
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Alberta Finance usually produces a nice report for every census release

http://www.finance.alberta.ca/abouta...ing-counts.pdf
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  #303  
Old Posted Feb 24, 2017, 5:44 PM
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^ Other than for the multiple references to Minnesota (MN).
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  #304  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2017, 2:48 AM
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Delete.
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Last edited by Chadillaccc; Mar 16, 2017 at 3:17 AM.
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  #305  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2017, 3:16 AM
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Assuming 10% growth for the Calgary Economic Region between 2016 and 2031, the Calgary Economic Region will reach 2 020 000 by census 2031. Keep in mind though, that 10% would be a significant drop from what we have been experiencing for the past 20 years. This may be in store for sure.


Alternatively, if we grow by the same rate we just grew at over the last census, 14.3%, we'll be 2 290 000 by 2031, meaning the CMA will be almost 2.2 million even if Foothills M.D. isn't included by then. Guess if those pipelines are built we'll be into some really good times!
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  #306  
Old Posted Mar 16, 2017, 8:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Assuming 10% growth for the Calgary Economic Region between 2016 and 2031, the Calgary Economic Region will reach 2 020 000 by census 2031. Keep in mind though, that 10% would be a significant drop from what we have been experiencing for the past 20 years. This may be in store for sure.
I'm not sure I follow your math here Chad.

Assuming a 10% growth rate over 15 years or .67% average annual growth rate, that implies that the current 2016 population of the CER is 1.83 million. That seems astoundingly high to me.

Alternatively I think your growth rate is too low. 0.67% is anemic, and even if oil doesn't recover soon, which seems likely, that still seems low to me. I think Calgary's stabilized growth rate over the next 5-10 years will be somewhere in the 1.1-1.3% AAGR range.
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  #307  
Old Posted Jul 31, 2017, 3:46 PM
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I'm not sure I follow your math here Chad.

Assuming a 10% growth rate over 15 years or .67% average annual growth rate, that implies that the current 2016 population of the CER is 1.83 million. That seems astoundingly high to me.

Alternatively I think your growth rate is too low. 0.67% is anemic, and even if oil doesn't recover soon, which seems likely, that still seems low to me. I think Calgary's stabilized growth rate over the next 5-10 years will be somewhere in the 1.1-1.3% AAGR range.
The Calgary CMA population is 1.4M today. Assuming moderate economic growth, it will add approximately 200K over the next ten years. We all like to argue these numbers, but I can close to guarantee (give or the take) 1.6M will be Calgary's CMA population in 2026. Only major unforeseen shocks (war, economic collapse or massive boom) can really shift the needle on bigger cities population counts.
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  #308  
Old Posted Jul 27, 2018, 5:01 PM
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Calgary just grew by 21 000 year over year, with nearly 1 700 people moving to the Beltline alone for that neighbourhood’s largest ever yoy growth, hitting just under 25 000. The city experienced a net migration of 11 600, and natural increase of 9 400. The city has officially reached a population of 1 267 344.


Edit: oh woops, source... http://www.calgary.ca/_layouts/cocis...edirect=1&sf=1
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Last edited by Chadillaccc; Jul 27, 2018 at 5:12 PM.
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  #309  
Old Posted Jul 27, 2018, 5:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
Calgary just grew by 21 000 year over year, with nearly 1 700 people moving to the Beltline alone for that neighbourhood’s largest ever yoy growth, hitting just under 25 000. The city experienced a net migration of 11 600, and natural increase of 9 400. The city has officially reached a population of 1 267 344.


Edit: oh woops, source... http://www.calgary.ca/_layouts/cocis...edirect=1&sf=1
21k is more than I expected, but still poor by calgary standards. It will be interesting to see the numbers for the other municipalities in the CMA.
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  #310  
Old Posted Oct 17, 2018, 7:17 PM
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Just noticed that Grande Prairie and Airdrie did a municipal census in 2018:

Grande Prairie - 69,088 ~177 person growth the past year
Airdrie - 68,091 ~3000 person growth the past year

These #s were released in the summer so Airdrie has almost certainly surpassed Grande Prairie since then, likely becoming the 5th largest city in Alberta.

Other older numbers:

St Albert - 65,589 (2016)
Medicine Hat - 62,935 (2016)

Neither have been growing at Airdrie's rate, or even close.

Top cities:

Calgary (2018) 1,267,344
Edmonton (2016) 899,447
Red Deer (2016) 99,832
Lethbridge (2018) 99,769

As crazy as it sounds, Airdrie is on track to surpass Red Deer and Lethbridge in about 12 years at current rates.
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Last edited by DizzyEdge; Oct 17, 2018 at 7:28 PM.
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  #311  
Old Posted Oct 18, 2018, 12:21 AM
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Wow - 12 years isn't long.
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  #312  
Old Posted Oct 18, 2018, 3:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DizzyEdge View Post
Just noticed that Grande Prairie and Airdrie did a municipal census in 2018:

Grande Prairie - 69,088 ~177 person growth the past year
Airdrie - 68,091 ~3000 person growth the past year

These #s were released in the summer so Airdrie has almost certainly surpassed Grande Prairie since then, likely becoming the 5th largest city in Alberta.

Other older numbers:

St Albert - 65,589 (2016)
Medicine Hat - 62,935 (2016)

Neither have been growing at Airdrie's rate, or even close.

Top cities:

Calgary (2018) 1,267,344
Edmonton (2016) 899,447
Red Deer (2016) 99,832
Lethbridge (2018) 99,769

As crazy as it sounds, Airdrie is on track to surpass Red Deer and Lethbridge in about 12 years at current rates.
Airdrie is not a real city. It's a bedroom community of Calgary.
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  #313  
Old Posted Oct 18, 2018, 4:11 AM
Rollerstud98 Rollerstud98 is online now
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Airdrie is not a real city. It's a bedroom community of Calgary.
Chestermere yes, Airdrie not so much of a bedroom community. People come to Airdrie for work now and have for quite some time. There are multiple and expanding commercial/industrial areas attracting more and more workers from outside the city. Yes we have a strong commuter base due to proximity to Calgary and ease of getting downtown but Airdrie is its own city and is a real city.
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  #314  
Old Posted Oct 18, 2018, 1:30 PM
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Chestermere yes, Airdrie not so much of a bedroom community. People come to Airdrie for work now and have for quite some time. There are multiple and expanding commercial/industrial areas attracting more and more workers from outside the city. Yes we have a strong commuter base due to proximity to Calgary and ease of getting downtown but Airdrie is its own city and is a real city.
It does not have an identity like some other satellite cities ( Leduc, Fort Saskatchewan, St Albert, Cochrane, etc). Beaumont and Sherwood Park also suffer from the same problem.
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  #315  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2018, 3:07 AM
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It does not have an identity like some other satellite cities ( Leduc, Fort Saskatchewan, St Albert, Cochrane, etc). Beaumont and Sherwood Park also suffer from the same problem.
The big problem with Airdrie (in my mind) is it's a 70,000 person city with no real downtown, just a intersection with a few shops and a shopping mall next door. To be fair Airdrie, although founded in 1899, had only reached 500 people by 1960 and was under 200 people most of the time before then. So it never really had a historical downtown.

Because of that it just feels like a bunch of additional Calgary suburban communities. Create a real and attractive downtown and Airdrie will gain some character and identity I think.

They do have a 10 yr old plan, but I'm not sure how much progress has been made

https://www.airdrie.ca/getDocument.cfm?ID=217
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  #316  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2018, 12:55 PM
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Calgary sprawl together with both Airdrie and Chestermere over the next 20 years.
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  #317  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2018, 2:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DizzyEdge View Post
The big problem with Airdrie (in my mind) is it's a 70,000 person city with no real downtown, just a intersection with a few shops and a shopping mall next door. To be fair Airdrie, although founded in 1899, had only reached 500 people by 1960 and was under 200 people most of the time before then. So it never really had a historical downtown.

Because of that it just feels like a bunch of additional Calgary suburban communities. Create a real and attractive downtown and Airdrie will gain some character and identity I think.

They do have a 10 yr old plan, but I'm not sure how much progress has been made

https://www.airdrie.ca/getDocument.cfm?ID=217
I'm surprised to see how fast Airdrie has grown. At this point it's almost the same population as Sherwood Park, which has been developing since the 70's

Sherwood Park is sort of the same though, it's not so much a city but a suburb with no real identity and despite recent efforts to develop housing and amenities in their civic precinct, it's all strip malls & box stores. Sherwood Park is the closest place for us to get groceries, go to the hardware store, Costco etc but I really am not a fan of going out there.
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  #318  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2018, 3:47 PM
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Originally Posted by DizzyEdge View Post
The big problem with Airdrie (in my mind) is it's a 70,000 person city with no real downtown, just a intersection with a few shops and a shopping mall next door. To be fair Airdrie, although founded in 1899, had only reached 500 people by 1960 and was under 200 people most of the time before then. So it never really had a historical downtown.

Because of that it just feels like a bunch of additional Calgary suburban communities. Create a real and attractive downtown and Airdrie will gain some character and identity I think.

They do have a 10 yr old plan, but I'm not sure how much progress has been made

https://www.airdrie.ca/getDocument.cfm?ID=217
Airdrie has the best Home Hardware in the Rockyview/Foothills district!

Airdrie does attract some franchises and manufacturers that don't want to locate in big cities. Outwardly it will probably always look like a large suburb with a mix of industrial.
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  #319  
Old Posted Oct 19, 2018, 9:14 PM
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Airdrie had a proposal for a major revamp of downtown, https://thesquareairdrie.com/

I haven't heard much of anything in the last couple years though. This would have been a good start but had an initial price tag of $80,000,000.00 so there was very strong push back after it was announced. While we have had some private money funneling into the downtown area, I think we will need to have the city take the first big steps here and have private money follow once the ball is rolling.
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  #320  
Old Posted Oct 20, 2018, 4:41 AM
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I wouldn't be surprised to see Calgary sprawl together with both Airdrie and Chestermere over the next 20 years.
I do believe Calgary and Chestermere both have developments or at least proposed ones that butt up too each other. I think it might take longer for Calgary and Airdrie to meet
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