Posted Nov 22, 2017, 4:26 PM
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Engineer
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: West Jordan, UT
Posts: 922
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300,000 is likely around the maximum population Salt Lake will ever have. Compared to almost every city in the US, a very small portion of Salt Lake is dedicated to residential/commercial use, only about 31.5 sq mi out of its 111. It will probably remain that way, since, as FullCircle said, most of the remaining open land will either be preserved as is or will be developed as industrial.
For the sake of comparison, let's see how Salt Lake's hypothetical population stacks up to cities whose land is dedicated almost entirely to residential and commercial use:
300,000 people in 31.5 sq mi would make Salt Lake more dense than Seattle (though Seattle is over 80 sq mi, and there are about 10 sq mi of industrial so this isn't the best comparison)
400,000 people in 31.5 sq mi would be a population density approaching that of Boston (48.3 sq mi)
500,000 people in 31.5 sq mi would be a population density approaching that of San Francisco (46.9 sq mi), the second most dense city in the United States.
All this demonstrates how little potential Salt Lake's population numbers have. We'd have to build a city as dense as San Francisco to make it into the top 35 largest cities in the US, which is impossible.
This also goes to show how dense US cities are not. One reason Salt Lake is 123rd on the list is that many of the most populated cities in the US have huge swaths of population in sprawling suburban areas. I'd estimate about 35% of Salt Lake proper's population is suburban (Rose Park, Glendale, Foothill), while cities like Phoenix, Jacksonville, and Indianapolis (numbers 5, 12, and 15) have almost entirely suburban populations. Approximately 80% of Austin's population lives in low density suburban. Same with about 65% of Denver's population. And a huge majority of the population growth in these cities has happened in these suburban areas. So even though these cities have much larger downtowns and are in fact growing faster than Salt Lake by almost any measurement, their numbers are hugely inflated by their suburban areas within city boundaries. Salt Lake doesn't have the luxury of building huge swaths of suburban to inflate its numbers, which is why expecting a population higher than 300,000 is very unrealistic.
On the other hand, a downtown population of 25,000-30,000 is entirely attainable, imo.
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