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  #39481  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2017, 1:40 PM
Stockerzzz Stockerzzz is offline
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Marothisu, when should we expect your detailed analysis of the population change from a neighborhood level?
Yes! That is the best.
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  #39482  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2017, 1:46 PM
marothisu marothisu is online now
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Originally Posted by Randomguy34 View Post
I had a quick look at the ACS 2016 survey data, and it looks like the city's population is 2,704,965 people. That's only about 1,000 new people from last year, so we still have really overall growth. The last ACS survey showed that this is because of high central area growth and large population loss on the South Side. I recall the West Side's population loss is starting to level off, and the population for South Lakefront neighborhoods increasing a bit.

Marothisu, when should we expect your detailed analysis of the population change from a neighborhood level?
First thing to note is that what you are seeing as a population of 2,704,965 is the 1 year ACS estimates which have been out for a few months. In reality, the 5 year estimates which were released just over 8 hours ago is 2,714,017. In the case of the ACS, I believe 1 year ACS is more accurate for larger populations because it represents a single point in time. The 5 year ACS is more of an average over 5 years of something. Unfortunately, the census tract level is only available at the 5 year ACS.

Second thing to note is that according to a presentation I saw, you aren't supposed to compare overlapping years of the 5 year ACS. The 2016 5 year ACS is 2012-2016, so you shouldn't compare 2011-2015 apparently - according to the Census themselves. You should only compare say 2007-2011 (2011 ACS) or 2006-2010 (2010) to 2012-2016 ACS. According to them too, and this is something I've said multiple times here, you should only compare ACS to ACS and you should only compare say the 1 year to the 1 year and 5 year to the 5 year. Also I understand that the 1 year ACS is better than the 5 year ACS at analyzing larger populations. A lot of people compare the 2010 decennial census to the ACS which according to the Census, you aren't supposed to do. A lot of media, publications, etc flat out still haven't done their homework on this.

They also don't adjust their estimates based on the actual Census. So if the 2010 ACS (population estimated as of January 1st, as I understand) states that the population of something is 50,000, but then the decennial Census says it's 60,000 - the next year ACS wouldn't update their info to take 60K as the population. It would just go on with the previous 50K estimate. In that sense, the 2010 estimate of the Loop was 19,993 people and the 2016 estimate was 35,010 people - a growth of 15,017 people. However, the 2010 Census stated the population was 29,283 - so is the actual population of the Loop now close to 45,000 people instead of 35,000 people?


So anyway, here are a few community areas and what I calculated as their 2016 populations. I think there will be some adjustment from areas like Logan Square and West Town because for example, there's a very small section of West Town within a tract that's mostly for Logan Square.

According to what I calculated.. Near West, Near South, Near North, and the Loop have grown by a combined 43,225 people since 2010 (versus the ACS, not versus the actual Census). At this time last year, I would have put this number at +39,444. It looks like the Census has updated their estimates so it's increased nearly 4000 people in the last year.

* Lakeview: 99,876 people | +2686 people compared to 2010 ACS
* Near North Side: 86,343 people | +10,124 people
* West Town: 84,458 people | +1877 people
* Logan Square: 74,606 people | -846 people
* West Ridge: 73,723 people | +1654 people
* Lincoln Park: 67,260 people | +2825 people
* Near West Side: 62,560 people | +12,772 people
* Rogers Park: 55,500 people | +494 people
* Edgewater: 55,430 people | -1175 people
* Irving Park: 55,417 people | +564 people
* Albany Park: 51,575 people | -101 people
* Lincoln Square: 41,483 people | +3066 people
* Avondale: 38,191 people | -1798 people
* Loop: 35,010 people | +15,017 people
* North Center: 34,942 people | +1548 people
* Lower West Side: 32,998 people | -2510 people
* Hyde Park: 26,573 people | +695 people
* Near South Side: 23,190 people | +5312 people
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  #39483  
Old Posted Dec 7, 2017, 3:24 PM
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Findings from searching around the internet this morning:

Apparently the 6 story building proposed for the SW lot of 31st & Indiana already broke ground on October 26th. It will contain 54 units and retail Ald Dowell's newsletter says that full construction should begin before the end of the year, and it will start climbing in the spring. (Source: http://www.dowellforthirdward.com/wp...Newsletter.pdf)

Image: Chicago Curbed


The city also wants to build an affordable mixed use development at the NE and SE corners of 5th Ave and Kedzie, as a part of the city's new goals for sustainable development. In addition, the city is looking for a developer to rehab two of the Stockyard buildings on Pershing Rd (Source: https://chicagotonight.wttw.com/2017...-garfield-park)
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  #39484  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 1:48 AM
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536 N LaSalle

Dec 5

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  #39485  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 4:28 AM
denizen467 denizen467 is offline
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2701 W. Armitage is a quarter-block hole now, surrounded by construction fencing, where the longtime commercial brick structure (shown partially in the linked Curbed article) had stood until rather recently, probably as late as October.
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  #39486  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 4:36 AM
denizen467 denizen467 is offline
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It's not like we have any right to complain about this one ... but it kinda ruins the West Loop a little, no?

New McDonald’s Headquarters To Get McDonalds On Ground Level
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  #39487  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 4:48 AM
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Originally Posted by denizen467 View Post
It's not like we have any right to complain about this one ... but it kinda ruins the West Loop a little, no?

New McDonald’s Headquarters To Get McDonalds On Ground Level
It's a McDonald's but how does that "ruin" the West Loop? I'm guessing it will be a really nice one, being at the base of the global HQ.

I kinda wish they would demolish the Rock n Roll McD's and make this a showcase.
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  #39488  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 5:42 AM
denizen467 denizen467 is offline
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^ Well it would ruin Fulton Market, and it would ruin the first few blocks of Randolph. It may be tolerable way out by Aberdeen.

The whole thesis of Fulton Market is that it's host to best-of-breed dining, food, and other services. Everyone working there (look at the face photo collage on Halsted at Fulton) is an artist striving at the top of the game; it's kind of an artist colony where the ideal is the pursuit of quality and innovation, over flashiness and repetition and efficiency. Are people going to flock to a Soho House or a Nobu Hotel if there are KFCs littered across the neighborhood?

McDonald's, in contrast, is a dinner-of-last-resort type of place, the pinnacle of profitmaking and the culinary equivalent of VE'ing.

And the last thing we need is suburbanites GPSing themselves off the Kennedy or out of the Loop to the nearest McDonald's for a bite. I think it would be fine if the McDonald's over by Ogden continued to serve that purpose.
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  #39489  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 5:58 AM
marothisu marothisu is online now
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Via newest Census ACS for 2016..Combined population of Near North, Near South, Near West, and the Loop is 207,103 people. This is up 43,225 people since the 2010 ACS , or +26.38% growth. If you compare it against the 2010 Decennial Census, which you aren't supposed to do but we'll do anyway then it would be +21,065 people or +10.17%. So no matter which way you look at it, it's great growth for downtown - and technically the 26.38% is the more correct one according to the Census Dept

BTW there's someone on Facebook claiming their friend who works at McDonald's says this restaurant will have a full international menu or something. If true then perhaps they were reading this forum
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  #39490  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 6:05 AM
denizen467 denizen467 is offline
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^ Creating a real global flagship, and presenting it as such, always serving items otherwise sold only in Asia or other places, would redeem this if executed well (and not dumbed down after three years into a generic McDonald's). If the store staff always rotated through international attendees at Hamburger University, that would be interesting too.
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  #39491  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 7:37 AM
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Originally Posted by denizen467 View Post
The whole thesis of Fulton Market is that it's host to best-of-breed dining
Um, office workers sometimes just want a $6 lunch.

And this is going to be McDonald's headquarters. They like to have a functioning restaurant downstairs to think about new concepts would work in service. At the one on 22nd St. in Oak Brook, I don't think they ever did any notable menu-item test marketing, but there are sometimes logistical issues (like grill space for all-day breakfast) that are best thought-through in a functioning restaurant.
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  #39492  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 8:21 AM
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Yeah, I'm not offended by this McDonalds if it's done tastefully. It's not like "suburbanites getting off the highway" will find much, this will be mainly a walk-up location. And it's in their HQ, for cryin' out loud, what did you expect?
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  #39493  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 1:00 PM
k1052 k1052 is offline
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Sometimes I just want a sausage egg McMuffin and a coffee not a $10 bespoke breakfast sandwich. Not to say I don't love the latter.

It will not "ruin" Fulton Market/West Loop. That's hyperbolic. Since it's in their HQ it will probably be a really nice buildout.
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  #39494  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 1:14 PM
Stockerzzz Stockerzzz is offline
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Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
Combined population of Near North, Near South, Near West, and the Loop is 207,103 people. This is up 43,225 people since the 2010 ACS , or +26.38% growth. If you compare it against the 2010 Decennial Census, which you aren't supposed to do but we'll do anyway then it would be +21,065 people or +10.17%. So no matter which way you look at it, it's great growth for downtown - and technically the 26.38% is the more correct one according to the Census Dept.
Thanks! So are the south and west sides still bleeding population?
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  #39495  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 1:48 PM
marothisu marothisu is online now
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Originally Posted by Stockerzzz View Post
Thanks! So are the south and west sides still bleeding population?
Yes, but at least if you compare 2015 to 2016 then Englewood, Austin, Auburn Gresham, and a few others didn't lose that much population. Issue is that they'd already lost a lot in the previous years, so even if one of them lost only 30 people, it's not helping matters. West Englewood however did lose the 3rd most population out of any community area. Avondale and Lower West Side were top 2 biggest losers. Out of the gainers on the south side it was, in order, West Lawn, West Elsdon, Ashburn, Riverdale, Mount Greenwood, Douglas, Clearing, Hegewisch, South Lawndale, Pullman, Greater Grand Crossing, New City, Brighton Park, Avalon Park, and Beverly.

Also interesting is Humboldt Park having the 4th highest gain of the 77 community areas.
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  #39496  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 2:24 PM
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Originally Posted by denizen467 View Post
^ Well it would ruin Fulton Market, and it would ruin the first few blocks of Randolph. It may be tolerable way out by Aberdeen.

The whole thesis of Fulton Market is that it's host to best-of-breed dining, food, and other services. Everyone working there (look at the face photo collage on Halsted at Fulton) is an artist striving at the top of the game; it's kind of an artist colony where the ideal is the pursuit of quality and innovation, over flashiness and repetition and efficiency. Are people going to flock to a Soho House or a Nobu Hotel if there are KFCs littered across the neighborhood?

McDonald's, in contrast, is a dinner-of-last-resort type of place, the pinnacle of profitmaking and the culinary equivalent of VE'ing.

And the last thing we need is suburbanites GPSing themselves off the Kennedy or out of the Loop to the nearest McDonald's for a bite. I think it would be fine if the McDonald's over by Ogden continued to serve that purpose.
..................ok You really think a McD’s will poach diners from fine restaurants?
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  #39497  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 2:33 PM
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A McDonalds ground floor in the Corporate HQ building will not ruin anything. Will it even have a drive through?
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  #39498  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 3:44 PM
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Ugh another demolition coming soon

South Side Masonic Temple
6400 S. Green

South Side Masonic Temple by Stephanie Barto, on Flickr
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  #39499  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 4:11 PM
LouisVanDerWright LouisVanDerWright is offline
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If the McDonalds is as high quality as the HQ building and has a full international menu, I'm sure it will be a delight and, if anything, another notch in the belt of Restaurant Row. I mean come on, I might not want to eat at the golden arches every day, but being able to select from a worldwide menu? I might actually go there a couple times a year if only to slowly work through their international menu. There will only be one place on earth where you have that full selection and that's in the West Loop, the hottest neighborhood in Chicago, probably the greatest concentration of "foodie" oriented restaurants on earth. It will only add fuel to the West Loop fire, sure you might see a few more prom-limos rolling up on weekends in spring like you see in River North, but who cares? That's just even more streetlife for the area and a huge foot traffic draw pulling people further South and West from the current center of activity at Morgan Pink/Green Line.

PS, the McDonalds HQ move might be the most brilliant corporate decision in decades. I mean you are talking about the titan of global fast food, the company that started the prevailing dining trend of the last century, colliding with an incubator of the prevailing dining trends of this century. Just think of the great ideas that might result. This is why cities exist people, so individuals can specialize their skills and still exchange ideas and trade. For something as tangible as the food industry, being physically present and actually touching, smelling, eating, etc is key. You aren't going to get any new ideas in your compound in Oakbrook. Just imagine the ways in which McDonalds might benefit as a company by having all of their employees within blocks of some of the most cutting edge or premier restaurants in the US and world. I'm basically hoping McDonalds vacuums up tidbits of Au Cheval or Publican into their corporate machine and spits out an even more competitive, tasty, product as a result.
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  #39500  
Old Posted Dec 8, 2017, 4:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Mr Downtown View Post
Um, office workers sometimes just want a $6 lunch.
...
Yes. When I first started working in the Loop, back in 1995, there were many, many options for a solid $5-6 lunch. Now there are very few options - you almost have to dumb down the meaning of lunch to have options at that price point. Even at McDonalds you have to stick to the basics to stay under $6.

Quote:
Originally Posted by denizen467 View Post
It's not like we have any right to complain about this one ... but it kinda ruins the West Loop a little, no?
...
Ruins? LOL

Quote:
Originally Posted by harryc View Post
Dec 5

Any chance this stays yellow?

Quote:
Originally Posted by marothisu View Post
...
According to what I calculated.. Near West, Near South, Near North, and the Loop have grown by a combined 43,225 people since 2010 (versus the ACS, not versus the actual Census). At this time last year, I would have put this number at +39,444. It looks like the Census has updated their estimates so it's increased nearly 4000 people in the last year.

* Lakeview: 99,876 people | +2686 people compared to 2010 ACS
* Near North Side: 86,343 people | +10,124 people
...
Looks like a good chance of Lakeview clearing 100k in 2020. Not impossible for Near North to, too, although 2030 should see Near North north of 100k even if it doesn't quite make it there in 2020. I kind of think Near North will be very close to 100k in the actual Census, seeing as in 2010 they grew by about 10,000 overall despite losing almost 10,000 public housing residents. Having far fewer public housing residents to lose after 2010, all this new growth in housing stock since 2010 should go straight to the final tally instead of having to stare down depopulating public housing. By 2030 the Cabrini area will hopefully be fully built out, too. And who knows, maybe there will even somehow be a Larrabee-Clinton Street subway at least started by then.
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