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Originally Posted by Crawford
1. No tech company on the planet has had nonstop sustained growth
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As noted before, this is a straw man. Nobody is assuming they need "nonstop" growth, they just need enough growth to get to another 50K employees.
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2. No major company on the planet has true "dual, equal HQ"
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That is not true.
DowDupont has dual HQ's in Midland, MI and Wilmington, DE. There are others as well.
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3. There is no logistical way to set up a "HQ" within months without having a predetermined winner
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This made no sense at all. If it takes a year to get the beginnings of a 2nd HQ up and running, it makes no difference if they started in September of last year or September of this year. When you're planning on a 10, 20 or 30-year time horizon, a year is no big deal.
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4. The disruptive nature of tech makes long-term predictions useless
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This is true, but first of all, Amazon is as much a retailer as a tech company anyway, so I hope you aren't predicting people will stop buying things altogether. Second, it would appear there is a long-term trend of people buying more stuff online and less in traditional stores, so clearly Amazon is banking on that, which appears to be a reasonably safe bet. The only question is whether or not Amazon will be able to continue to capture the same amount of growth of online purchasing that they've been capturing to date.
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5. Amazon has been clear that it wants to grow in Seattle, not elsewhere
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You really just made that up, didn't you. Nothing could be farther from the truth. If it were true, not only would Seattle have made the top 20 tlist, but Amazon wouldn't be going through all this effort to solicit bids for another HQ in the first place.