Canada's Next Major Metropolitan Areas?

[saffronleaf]

I think we can generally agree that Canada has 9 major metropolitan areas right now. They may not all be major on a global scale, but at least within the Canadian context. They are:

1. Toronto
2. Montreal
3. Vancouver
4. Calgary
5. Edmonton
6. Ottawa
7. Winnipeg
8. Quebec
9. Hamilton (although I think over time Toronto, Hamilton and Oshawa will form a large metropolitan region)

What are Canada's next major metropolitan areas? You could look at this question however you please. One way to look at it may be to see which batch of metropolitan areas are likely to hit ~750K people next.

My picks (not ranked; from West to East):
1. Victoria
2. Saskatoon
3. London
4. Waterloo Region
5. Niagara Region
6. Oshawa (although I think it will be part of the greater metropolitan region of Toronto by the time it gets big enough)
7. Halifax

[JHikka]

KWC. It's prime to denisfy and grow in the next twenty years.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by JHikka

KWC area

I hope they unify more and market themselves in a more unified way.

Also, KW is equidistant to Cambridge and Guelph and share some services, so would be nice to see Guelph become a part of the region, too. They're already referred to together by some sources.

Name it Grand River, which is already used for the transit and hospital and is the main geographic feature of the region. Or Waterloo I guess has some marketing cache.

But I agree, I think this region is most poised to be the next one, regardless of whether anything I said above comes to fruition.

[MolsonExport]

Most of those cities are already metropolitan areas, but if I had to choose the next big metropolitan area, and one that is not already largely subsumed into another metropolitan area (Hamilton, Oshawa), I would put my money on KWC+Guelph.

[Echoes]

KWC is the obvious leader here. Perhaps Halifax second?

For Saskatoon, I don't think anyone should be under any illusion that it's about to grow into a "major" metro any time soon (or ever), but it is going to continue to grow substantially. And with that I think it will continue to move up the food chain of Canadian cities a bit and grow in presence and profile. It's currently nipping at the heels of some other Canadian CMAs in terms of population.

The City of Saskatoon's Growth Plan to Half a Million projects an average annual growth rate of 2.5% going forward, putting the city at 500,000 in 30 to 40 years. The CMA, by that time, should easily be within reach of 600,000.

Planning for this growth is centered on a new BRT system, substantial infill and densification along the BRT corridors, and significant infill in the Downtown and strategic areas (U of S crop land in the middle of the city, for example). The plan's goal is to reach a 50-50 balance of infill to greenfield development in the city, unheard of for a prairie city with endless developable land in every direction. If the growth plan is achieved anywhere close to how it is envisioned, it will dramatically remake this city.

[O-tacular]

Okotoks will absorb Calgary into its metropolitan area. Calgarians will become Okotoksians. Likewise Laval will overtake Montreal and subjugate it to the will of the Clocktower.

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by Echoes

KWC is the obvious leader here. Perhaps Halifax second?

For Saskatoon, I don't think anyone should be under any illusion that it's about to grow into a "major" metro any time soon (or ever), but it is going to continue to grow substantially. And with that I think it will continue to move up the food chain of Canadian cities a bit and grow in presence and profile. It's currently nipping at the heels of some other Canadian CMAs in terms of population.

The City of Saskatoon's Growth Plan to Half a Million projects an average annual growth rate of 2.5% going forward, putting the city at 500,000 in 30 to 40 years. The CMA, by that time, should easily be within reach of 600,000.

Planning for this growth is centered on a new BRT system, substantial infill and densification along the BRT corridors, and significant infill in the Downtown and strategic areas (U of S crop land in the middle of the city, for example). The plan's goal is to reach a 50-50 balance of infill to greenfield development in the city, unheard of for a prairie city with endless developable land in every direction. If the growth plan is achieved anywhere close to how it is envisioned, it will dramatically remake this city.

Very interesting. Happy for Saskatoon.

Do you think the Saskatoon CMA will be roughly equal to or bigger than any of the following CMAs by 2050?

1. Victoria
2. London
3. Waterloo Region
4. Niagara Region
5. Oshawa
6. Halifax

I'm thinking based on current growth rates Niagara Region and Halifax would be within range.

[jigglysquishy]

Halifax comes to mind. It serves as a regional hub in a way that Victoria or Saskatoon can't.

[manny_santos]

If high speed rail gets built, London could be a contender, though it will still be playing second fiddle to KWC.

[Echoes]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

Do you think the Saskatoon CMA will be roughly equal to or bigger than any of the following CMAs by 2050?

I don't feel equipped to make any of those predictions, but I think it's safe to say that it will close the gap considerably on many of those places listed.

[osmo]

I'll never consider any city that eats nearly half a day to get to as part of a metro area.

Hamilton is 'right beside' Toronto but it is a journey to get too - both car and Transit. If you are going to Hamilton you are killing half of your day to make it happen.

KWC is the obvious choice for the next major metro. The economy in that region booming and adding jobs and this is how Metro areas grow, no other way around it.

[rousseau]

Originally Posted by osmo

I'll never consider any city that eats nearly half a day to get to as part of a metro area.

Hamilton is 'right beside' Toronto but it is a journey to get too - both car and Transit. If you are going to Hamilton you are killing half of your day to make it happen.

Traffic and travel in the Golden Horseshoe is busy, but it's not actually half a day to get to Toronto from Hamilton. If you're lucky and you time it right it's an hour on the QEW, and if you're unlucky it's an hour and a half or more. Trains and buses are slower.

More accurately, a trip from Hamilton to Toronto and back to get one thing at a specific store, or eat lunch or dinner with someone, is going to take at least four or five hours.

But your metric isn't reasonable. You're can spend the same amount of time going from Scarborough to Mississauga and back. Same thing with commuting in other large metros.

Originally Posted by manny_santos

If high speed rail gets built, London could be a contender, though it will still be playing second fiddle to KWC.

Yeah, as much as London was bigger earlier and therefore feels grander downtown and in the adjacent neighbourhoods, and, frankly, isn't quite so butt ugly as K-W, it still really does feel like a comparative afterthought. K-W really does feel more connected to the GTA.

On the other hand, the isolation makes London a little bit interesting as an independent entity. Emphasis on the "little bit."

[softee]

If traffic is good you can go from downtown Toronto to downtown Hamilton in 45 minutes.

[hipster duck]

Yeah, a Kitchener vs. London, ON fight over grandeur and venerability is not exactly a clash of the titans.

As much as Canada is not an imperial country with one primate city, within the provinces, the existing metropolises have it locked down. In Ontario, all roads lead to Toronto (except around Ottawa). The 400-series highway system is like the French autoroute system: it's how you get from the provinces to Toronto/Paris and vice versa. Notice that once you're in Toronto, the "control cities" on the major highways (e.g. 401 West London, 401 East Kingston, 400 North Barrie) disappear and you're just left with the cardinal directions (e.g. "401 west", "404 south"). You can't even drive from Kitchener to London or Hamilton on a divided 4-lane highway without going through a big detour. If KW is getting big, it's getting big precisely because it's in Toronto's orbit, not in spite of it.

I think all the slots for major metropolitan centres are filled for the foreseeable future.

[Dalreg]

Any city in Southern Ontario will always be influenced by the big brother next door, Toronto.

The next "major" metro would logically be outside influence from other cities. Halifax, Saskatoon, Victoria would be the three most likely.

[Docere]

Saskatoon and Regina are about the same size as Edmonton and Calgary in 1960.

[mistercorporate]

Toronto's GO Train suburban commuter map. Everything connected is already in Toronto's orbit, St. Catherine's/Niagara Falls is next:

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

I hope they unify more and market themselves in a more unified way.

Also, KW is equidistant to Cambridge and Guelph and share some services, so would be nice to see Guelph become a part of the region, too. They're already referred to together by some sources.

Name it Grand River, which is already used for the transit and hospital and is the main geographic feature of the region. Or Waterloo I guess has some marketing cache.

But I agree, I think this region is most poised to be the next one, regardless of whether anything I said above comes to fruition.

As far as economic development goes, the Region has been unified for a number of years now. If it were to become a single city, my preference would be for it to be called "Waterloo".

Guelph is only a few kilometers further from Kitchener than is Cambridge (Galt), but Cambridge (Preston) is only about half the distance and the two cities are separated only by the 401. I really couldn't see Guelph being absorbed into the Region.

If HSR is ever built, I could definitely see much faster growth for the Region.

[ssiguy]

I don't see why people think Victoria will become a next major Metro. Victoria is growing below the national average. It gets a decent number of people moving to it from other parts of the country due to it's pleasant climate but most of those people are retirees so they are not long for this world and are way past their kid bearing years.

Saskatoon is growing quickly but has a Long time to go before it even reaches London and/or KWC's current population. I would say it's KWC with London 2nd.

[SaskScraper]

Originally Posted by saffronleaf

Very interesting. Happy for Saskatoon.

Do you think the Saskatoon CMA will be roughly equal to or bigger than any of the following CMAs by 2050?

1. Victoria
2. London
3. Waterloo Region
4. Niagara Region
5. Oshawa
6. Halifax

I'm thinking based on current growth rates Niagara Region and Halifax would be within range.

Saskatoon as fastest growing CMA in 2017, & one of the fastest over the last decade or so, will most likely gain on and over take most of the half dozen cities listed above by 2050.

Saskatoon will likely over take Niagara Region & Victoria by 2030, making Saskatoon 14th largest CMA in Canada.
Oshawa's growth rate has fluctuated a lot over the last few decades but currently is growing at same rate as Halifax & is just slightly smaller than the Nova Scotia Capital.

Saskatoon may over take Oshawa by 2050 and Halifax by 2060, making Saskatoon #12 largest CMA in Canada just behind London and Waterloo Region.
Unless something drastic happens in Saskatoon's, London's or Waterloo Region's grow rate. Saskatoon won't likely over take those two cities to become Top Ten CMA in Canada until the next turn of the Century.