LOS ANGELES | Downtown Project Rundown 6.0

[Illithid Dude]

Originally Posted by WonderlandPark2

1-Cambria-been fenced off, what, half a year now?
2-3 Hotel/2 Tower next to Circa, I think hotels are pretty solid and it will go
3-Shenzen Hanzens, MAYBE the W will go?
4-Mitsui tower on Fig, how many times has it been pushed back. for 8-9 years now?
5-LA Times is now landmark elegible which is going to kill Onni's wishes for this cycle-years of litigation if they want to fight it.
6-Same with Parker Center and the new City office building.
7-Related, crossing fingers, staying positive on a supposed Fall groundbreaking

We'll see about Crescent Heights, the other South Park Onni tower.

Academy Square in Hollywood.

[peopleandplace]

Originally Posted by WonderlandPark2

Here is a quick summary of building this cycle: I am wondering how much more we can expect to start before it ends. (bonus Hollywood projects) (not counting wood framed projs)





Except for 4th and Broadway, its been 18 months? 2 years? for a larger project to break ground.

1-Cambria-been fenced off, what, half a year now?
2-3 Hotel/2 Tower next to Circa, I think hotels are pretty solid and it will go
3-Shenzen Hanzens, MAYBE the W will go?
4-Mitsui tower on Fig, how many times has it been pushed back. for 8-9 years now?
5-LA Times is now landmark elegible which is going to kill Onni's wishes for this cycle-years of litigation if they want to fight it.
6-Same with Parker Center and the new City office building.
7-Related, crossing fingers, staying positive on a supposed Fall groundbreaking

We'll see about Crescent Heights, the other South Park Onni tower.

What big starts are still expected before the end of the year?

[WonderlandPark2]

Originally Posted by peopleandplace

What big starts are still expected before the end of the year?

Related is supposed to be this Fall. And perhaps Cambria, don't know whats holding that one up.

[caligrad]

He said BIG starts. I wouldn't consider the Cambria big even if it were in Long Beach. Hell if in Burbank or Glendale I still would consider it small. Its probably the one project I can honestly say I would rather it be placed on hold or canceled. It will be out of scale rather quickly once/if its completed. I thought it was supposed to break ground months ago.

[yakumoto]

Don't hold your breath for any big groundbreakings...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/sout...he-nation.html

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

My guess is that we'll get the hooters replacement project on fig, the Grand and the W projects to start by years end. All are hotel centric

[caligrad]

Originally Posted by yakumoto

Don't hold your breath for any big groundbreakings...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/sout...he-nation.html

We must actually read the fine details of these articles before we scream the sky is falling. This isn't like the mess that started in 06ish-07 (for California at least). In that case people weren't buying homes, people were losing homes and prices were sinking, so construction of new homes halted.

THIS however is saying home prices are toooo high and inventory is really low..... so that means housing is expensive because we don't have enough of it on the market which equals to the massive housing shortage that Southern California is currently in, specifically LA...... which means we SHOULD be seeing a lot of ground breaking. The article headlines "A warning sign to the nation" but doesn't necessarily say what kind of warning.

The warning sign pretty much is, the population is growing yet housing isn't keeping up with demand which means.....BUILD MORE HOUSING.

Now throw an article at me that says we have a lot of inventory and no one is buying and home prices at all time lows, THEN we can ring the alarms and panic like we did in 2007.

We need sunbelt cities to build denser and smarter.

[ocman]

Originally Posted by yakumoto

Don't hold your breath for any big groundbreakings...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/24/sout...he-nation.html

I wish. But every time something like that comes out, the next day something like this comes out.

https://la.curbed.com/2018/7/24/1760...une-core-logic

[BillinGlendaleCA]

Originally Posted by caligrad

We must actually read the fine details of these articles before we scream the sky is falling. This isn't like the mess that started in 06ish-07 (for California at least). In that case people weren't buying homes, people were losing homes and prices were sinking, so construction of new homes halted.

THIS however is saying home prices are toooo high and inventory is really low..... so that means housing is expensive because we don't have enough of it on the market which equals to the massive housing shortage that Southern California is currently in, specifically LA...... which means we SHOULD be seeing a lot of ground breaking. The article headlines "A warning sign to the nation" but doesn't necessarily say what kind of warning.

The warning sign pretty much is, the population is growing yet housing isn't keeping up with demand which means.....BUILD MORE HOUSING.

Now throw an article at me that says we have a lot of inventory and no one is buying and home prices at all time lows, THEN we can ring the alarms and panic like we did in 2007.

We need sunbelt cities to build denser and smarter.

There are also the changes in the Federal Income Tax law that you need to factor in here, that can make home ownership much more expensive.

[Blesha13]

Excuse my ignorance, but are we starting to see a slow cycle, perhaps going stagnant in the coming years?

[ozone]

Originally Posted by Blesha13

Excuse my ignorance, but are we starting to see a slow cycle, perhaps going stagnant in the coming years?

A lot of these developments were dependent on overseas investment, particularly Chinese. Trump's reckless trade war has not only increased costs of building materials it's pissed off Beijing which had already sought to enact tighter regulations on outbound Chinese investments in the U.S. real estate market.

[saybanana]

Originally Posted by Blesha13

Excuse my ignorance, but are we starting to see a slow cycle, perhaps going stagnant in the coming years?

There might a slowness in the cycle. But Im not qualified to say since I know nothing of development. So much has happened in the past 5-10 years at least in the Downtown area and so many projects have been completed or will be nearing completion.

It will be exciting if more large projects start like the 2 or 3 supertall proposals. Or Grand Ave Gehry or the Pico/Fig hotels. But I'm like some others that until I see dirt being pushed and dug up, it aint happening.

[caligrad]

Originally Posted by BillinGlendaleCA

There are also the changes in the Federal Income Tax law that you need to factor in here, that can make home ownership much more expensive.

Home ownership. Yes. Will people simply stop buying homes? no. And developers are still building rentals as well.

[BillinGlendaleCA]

Originally Posted by caligrad

Home ownership. Yes. Will people simply stop buying homes? no. And developers are still building rentals as well.

The original piece was talking about home prices(aka, home ownership), rental properties get different tax treatment.

[The Illusive Man]

Awesome developments going on in downtown right now.

Crazy how it has changed so much in just a few years.

[peopleandplace]

Originally Posted by ozone

A lot of these developments were dependent on overseas investment, particularly Chinese. Trump's reckless trade war has not only increased costs of building materials it's pissed off Beijing which had already sought to enact tighter regulations on outbound Chinese investments in the U.S. real estate market.

I wonder if being dependent on foreign investment may amplify the peaks and troughs of cycles and this one in particular. It is very mobile and typically concentrated in the high-end market. Combined with current zoning and development incentives, the growth in different real estate submarkets may be less broad based than is probably healthy. I don't disagree with your point but I wonder if a market best exploited at all ends of the scale wouldn't be better in the long run.

[Illithid Dude]

I'm not sure Trump is entirely to blame for the downwards spiral of Chinese Foreign Investment. A lot of it seems to stem for Beijing not liking the idea of their highest net worth individuals feeling that real estate holdings in the United States are a more secure investment than those in China, as well as high net worth Chinese individuals investing in other countries instead of China. And of course, there are parallels between the Chinese crackdown of foreign investment and the Chinese government leveraging charges against their most wealthy civilians, which of course has nothing to do with Trump.

[Eightball]

Originally Posted by The Illusive Man

Awesome developments going on in downtown right now.

Crazy how it has changed so much in just a few years.

I agree. Still so far to go but was walking by 4th and Broadway today and noticed the one empty retail slot on the corner building is being built out. So many large buildings (like high rise u/c catacorner) and small renos it's crazy

I agree with what illithid dude said above tho China cracking down on Chinese capital outflows regardless of our president. We will be ok tho

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by Eightball

I agree. Still so far to go but was walking by 4th and Broadway today and noticed the one empty retail slot on the corner building is being built out. So many large buildings (like high rise u/c catacorner) and small renos it's crazy

I agree with what illithid dude said above tho China cracking down on Chinese capital outflows regardless of our president. We will be ok tho

Hopefully what Mark Twain said will apply to our great boom.."reports of my demise have been greatly exaggerated", or words to that effect.

If the current boom is winding down, it would have done so anyway with or without Chinese money. It has been one heck of a boom that changed the skyline, especially south of Wilshire. The '28 Olympics will probably extend the boom a few years, at a more sustainable pace. Hopefully we get 2 more supertalls (Angels Flight, 4th & Fig.), and 5 or 10 more over 500' and many over 300'. Also, hope we add some more affordable units, not just expensive condos. And hopefully the waning boom will finally make Bunker Hill realize its potential if Grand is built, and the nearby Onni Times project is approved as well. Hopefully historic Broadway is preserved and revitalized, Chinatown and Little Tokyo join the boom, a gondola is built up to Dodger Stadium, the homeless problem is solved, and Pershing Square is revitalized. Hope we get a neo-art deco and/or neo-gothic tower or two (on historic Broadway or Spring..perfect..they'd fit right in). Would be great if the boom extends west along Wilshire to link to Westlake and Koreatown. Hope this isn't just "pie in the sky" talk. If all or even half of this happens in this boom or the next one, I will be happy. DTLA will have realized its potential as the center of the region.

Like the weather, the economy has seasons. As our boom possibly enters late summer or early fall and the leaves start to change, it should be celebrated. The greatest boom ever in DTLA.

[circuitfiend]

With all these large events coming up that will put LA on the world stage once again as incentive to build (World Cup, Olympics, Superbowl), developers are going to have to start breaking ground soon on these towers or they will never get built in time or at all. Same with the convention center & AEG hotel expansion. It's not looking good. Anyone who thinks national & international politics do not factor in these big buck decisions is stunningly naive. I hope I'm wrong, but we'll see.