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  #21  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2018, 9:16 PM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
The Chinaphiles now seem a lot like the Sovietphiles and Mussolini/Hitler admiers in the 30s. Who cares about the atrocities, look at the on-time trains and the shiny new infrastructure.
I like the way you think, even if it's scary.
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  #22  
Old Posted Oct 23, 2018, 11:26 PM
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The Forum Poll suggests a Conservative majority next election, with 184 seats, and 41% support:

http://poll.forumresearch.com/m/post...untitled-post/

Nanos poll suggest a Liberals most popular with 37% support.

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploa...8-10-12-FR.pdf
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  #23  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 3:43 AM
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Edit: After some thought, I decided to erase my comment, because I made the mistake of commenting before reading the actual article.
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Last edited by Dengler Avenue; Oct 24, 2018 at 4:29 AM.
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  #24  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 3:30 PM
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Only trust Nanos. Forum has a very spotty record; sometimes they're on point but other times they are wildly incorrect (at one point in the Ontario election earlier this year, they had the NDP at close to 50% which no other pollster came even remotely close to).
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  #25  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 3:48 PM
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Never take one poll on its own at face value. It's always wiser to look at all polls cumulatively. I like Grenier's work on CBC (and formerly his own site) as aggregating polls is the easiest way to see a trend amongst all pollsters and to get a clearer picture of what's going on.

Currently, CBC's Poll Tracker sits at the following:



I think it's fairly accurate all things considered.
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  #26  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 3:55 PM
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Ugh I hope the Conservatives don't win. So sick of having a Federal Government we didn't elect. At least with the Liberals, whatever happens, good and bad, we helped do it to ourselves.

I'm curious to see how the People's Party does here. They're definitely trying with events throughout the province, presumably to drum up candidates but the messaging is more related to getting to know the party. There are quite a few nationalists here, and also a small minority that is anti-immigration. Both of these groups tend to vote Liberal federally so I think any gains for the People's Party here will come from there, not the minority who vote Conservative. Last election that was 10.3% province-wide; as low as 4.5% in St. John's South-Mount Pearl up to 18.3% in Coast of Bays-Central-Notre Dame.
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  #27  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 3:58 PM
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I still think the People's Party will have more cache than they are getting credit for right now. We won't really be able to tell until campaigning starts in earnest, though.
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  #28  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:06 PM
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In that case, I sure hope Bernier deals enough damage to Trudeau that the latter will finally keep his promise of electoral reform.
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  #29  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post
In that case, I sure hope Bernier deals enough damage to Trudeau that the latter will finally keep his promise of electoral reform.
Isn't Bernier more likely to do damage to Scheer's chances than Trudeau's?
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  #30  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:10 PM
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Nationally, it depends. Conservatives might share more common ground with the People's Party, but I think Liberals on the mainland will have an easier time accepting the Quebec-ness of it all.
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  #31  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:11 PM
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Nationally, it depends. Conservatives might share more common ground with the People's Party, but I think Liberals on the mainland will have an easier time accepting the Quebec-ness of it all.
Well, the alternative is the Liberals, which rightly or wrongly are also associated with Quebec-ness in the eyes of many.
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  #32  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:41 PM
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Isn't Bernier more likely to do damage to Scheer's chances than Trudeau's?
That’s what I’d think too, so niwell’s comment came as a surprise.
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  #33  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:48 PM
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To clarify, I do think that most of any success Bernier gets will come at the expense of Scheer. Although we live in weird times, so who knows!
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  #34  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 4:55 PM
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Well, the alternative is the Liberals, which rightly or wrongly are also associated with Quebec-ness in the eyes of many.
These people must not be aware of the results of the election we just had...
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  #35  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 5:00 PM
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These people must not be aware of the results of the election we just had...
Perception and reality are two entirely different things.
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  #36  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 5:04 PM
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These people must not be aware of the results of the election we just had...
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
Perception and reality are two entirely different things.
So will JT end up having to share this pie called Québec with Bernier or no (assuming Scheer and Singh to be negligible)?
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  #37  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 5:32 PM
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Originally Posted by JHikka View Post
Never take one poll on its own at face value. It's always wiser to look at all polls cumulatively. I like Grenier's work on CBC (and formerly his own site) as aggregating polls is the easiest way to see a trend amongst all pollsters and to get a clearer picture of what's going on.

Currently, CBC's Poll Tracker sits at the following:



I think it's fairly accurate all things considered.
He does use historical pollster accuracy in this methodology, so Nanos polls are already going to be weighted higher than Forum polls.

That seat count is interesting. It's essentially unchanged for the Liberals, with them losing about two dozen or so seats to the Conservatives but making up for it by gaining from the NDP. Those Conservative gains would probably be in the Maritimes and the suburban areas of Toronto while those NDP losses would probably be mostly in BC and Quebec.
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  #38  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 5:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue View Post
In that case, I sure hope Bernier deals enough damage to Trudeau that the latter will finally keep his promise of electoral reform.
I'm still hoping the Libs have ranked ballots in their 2019 platform. Too bad they weren't specific the last go 'round.
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  #39  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 6:43 PM
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Isn't Bernier more likely to do damage to Scheer's chances than Trudeau's?
If he's going to have any impact at all, then yes.
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  #40  
Old Posted Oct 24, 2018, 7:30 PM
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Isn't Bernier more likely to do damage to Scheer's chances than Trudeau's?
Very much so. Bernier, although socially liberal, has a lot of very conservative economic policies. He is in fact more of a libertarian. He is sort of a Tea Party guy economically but socially a Democrat to use a US analogy. His effect on the election could be profound and the Tories may try to push him aside but in the war room they are very nervous and they have the right to be. They know that the vast majority of his backers are Tories and even a 10% skimming off of their support could decimate their seat count in Canada`s FPTP voting system.


His support and especially his party recognition can only go up as the election nears and he gets a lot more media attention. This is not just another small fringe party which Canada has plenty of. Rather this is a party lead by a leader with big name recognition, was formed from a departure of a current big part in a media circus, and will get even more media attention when the debates start and he isn`t invited. Just the fact the media and politicians will debate whether he should be allowed to be in a debate will give him tons of media attention which is what small parties need to get them into the electorate`s mind of a potential alternative.
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