EV Revolution!

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

I am not a liberal, sorry I don't protest anything.

You must be a conservative then. And when have one of them ever actually been ahead of the tech curve.....on anything?

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

You must be a conservative then. And when have one of them ever actually been ahead of the tech curve.....on anything?

No they only pay for the tech curve as investors

You one of the guys that believes aircraft will go electric in 25 years?

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

No they only pay for the tech curve as investors

Not really. All I see are conservatives constantly arguing about how this newfangled tech is stupid and their F-150 with truck nuts is going to rule the oil patch. That "rolling coal" is a thing, just shows you the level of degeneracy and idiocy out there.....

Conservatives have been whining about EVs and renewables all while Tesla has been quietly buying up patents and tech to set itself to be the next Apple. Heck, conservatives bitching about Solyndra is why Tesla paid their ATVM loan back early. No vision at all. It's hilarious to see Trump sucking up to Musk after Republicans trashed Tesla for so long.

At this point though, none of it matters. That battery curve is so steep, there are going to be quite a few companies and industries getting run over. And the harder they dig in on their ignorance, the deeper the wound will be when disruption comes. Personally, I am enjoying this and look forward to making bank from the trend.

[F1 Tommy]

Smart conservatives invest in both sides and question everything. But Trump is just kissing up. Most conservatives hold their noses to that guy. He is really something else.

On Musk he should let someone else run the company and just sit on the sidelines. He's kind of a nutcase.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

You one of the guys that believes aircraft will go electric in 25 years?

As a pilot and aerospace engineer? No.

I am one of the guys who believes that:

1) We have seen peak car sales globally.

2) We will probably see peak oil demand in the next 5 years. Tony Seba says 1-2 year in the presentation I posted for you. But I'm a little more realistic.

3) We're about 2 years away from the inflection point on the S-curve for EV adoption.

4) We'll see almost 100% car sales as electric by 2030.

5) There are major socio-economic consequences to the coming disruption because absolutely nobody seems to be taking the threat seriously and they all see it as two decades away....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

But Trump is just kissing up. Most conservatives hold their noses to that guy. He is really something else.

90% approval rating in the party. Trump is the GOP as far as the rest of us are concerned.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

On Musk he should let someone else run the company and just sit on the sidelines. He's kind of a nutcase.

I'm no fan of his bipolar antics. But I don't think Tesla would be anywhere near as far without him.

[Truenorth00]

At least you've moved off the whine about vehicle weight. I hope you finally understand that it's not really all that relevant to customers or reducing emissions (today).

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

At least you've moved off the whine about vehicle weight. I hope you finally understand that it's not really all that relevant to customers or reducing emissions (today).

I want lighter vehicles as it helps with handling and will also help hybrids as they try to keep up on fuel economy. It is an important topic and will be in the long term and short term even with electric auto's. All I can say is we will need a lot more than wind mills and solar panels if we wish to keep up with all the cars and trucks coming on line if they are electric. This is not going to be nearly as easy as you think. And I predict Musk will drive Tesla out of business as more companies bring EV cars to market. They better get him out.

Battery production has a long way to go still before it is what you want it to be.

People will vote for Trump as the Democrats have nothing better to offer. They really need to regroup as a party. Look for 4 more years of Trump by default unfortunately.

So what do you drive?

[F1 Tommy]

Probably drive a gas guzzling SUV or luxury car and work for Bombardier

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Probably drive a gas guzzling SUV or luxury car and work for Bombardier

Way off. But that's par for the course here.....

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

I want lighter vehicles as it helps with handling

Watch the videos of RWD Teslas in the snow and then let's chat. Low centre of gravity does wonders for handling.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

and will also help hybrids as they try to keep up on fuel economy.

Fuel economy is even higher if the gas powertrain is eliminated entirely....

The fundamental reason why hybrids are quickly falling out of favour with car buyers is that they are frankenstein cars that have the disadvantages of both. You have to still put gas in them and do oil changes. And you still have to charge at night (if plug in). Some marginal savings on fuel costs without the acceleration and smooth ride of pure electrics isn't going to cut it. There's a reason the marketshare of hybrids have been falling ever since more capable EVs showed up on the market. Customers are voting with their wallets.



The flood of EVs coming online this year and the next will cause a cliff drop in that chart.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

And I predict Musk will drive Tesla out of business as more companies bring EV cars to market.

Will be interesting to see if that happens. Tesla has quietly bought up every company that helped them develop their highly automated production lines, the tooling, the AI and even the battery production systems. And every time they buy a company, they force them to drop existing clients. Many of these were mature companies (or successful startups) that had ties with virtually every existing automaker out there.

https://www.crunchbase.com/search/ac...s/tesla-motors

The competition is only just starting to make competitive electric vehicles. They are going to discover and face all the challenges that Tesla faced. Along the way, they'll quickly discover that Tesla has acquired the companies or patents needed to quickly solve those challenges. This is why I say Tesla is like Apple. They do the same thing.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Battery production has a long way to go still before it is what you want it to be.

Every doubling of global li-ion production, battery prices drop by 18%. We've had over three doublings in the last 5 years and the rate is accelerating. Tesla's gigafactory alone doubled global Li-Ion production in one shot.

https://www.motor1.com/news/73568/te...ry-production/

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

So what do you drive?

A compact hybrid sedan.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Way off. But that's par for the course here.....

That's your opinion. Good to see you drive a hybrid. I do have a bad feeling about Musk. I hope he does not drive the company off the deep end as it is an American company that is doing well.

For the batteries I was referring to battery production pollution including mining, not the output and pricing.

Nice talking to you.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

For the batteries I was referring to battery production pollution including mining, not the output and pricing.

This FUD talking point is being addressed by the industry too.

Tesla releases ‘Conflict Minerals Report’, increases minerals tracking and reduces cobalt use

Set to launch commercially in spring 2020, the Responsible Sourcing Blockchain Network creates a step-by-step digital record that tracks cobalt from mine to end-manufacturer.

And of course, the best part about batteries is how easily they can be repurposed/recycled into a power storage product after the car's service life, creating another profitable industry for the EV automaker. Ultimately, once solid state batteries come along, the demand for a whole bunch of rare and/or expensive minerals goes does further.

It's not perfect, but it's a heck of a lot preferable to let emissions escalate indefinitely.

[canucklehead2]

Another new BEV coming from Hyundai-Kia, the Halo coming in 2021...


https://insideevs.com/news/398855/ki...mance-ev-2021/

[canucklehead2]

I'm going to start posting a few EV charging maps that I find to show how extensive the fast charging networks are rolling out and who is behind them...

Here in Canada it's an interesting mix of private and public although not entirely coordinated which leads to a lot of confusion...

BC Hydro (government owned) project for the province...

As of 02/2019 there were 58 DC fast chargers at 56 stations between Victoria and the Alberta border...

http://switch.bchydro.com/Explore-BCs-electric-highways
https://www.princegeorgecitizen.com/...lan-1.23149684

Here's a new one funded by the towns and cities of Southern Alberta (Calgary, Medicine Hat + private partners) I've never even heard of called Peaks to Prairies. Only L2 charging though... https://peakstoprairies.ca/

[canucklehead2]

For those of you unfamiliar with Petro-state politics, Calgary is/was the corporate HQ for the Canadian oil patch. It also happens to be one of the most pro-active about its own carbon footprint. The C-Train LRT network is wind-powered and carries/carried 300,000/day during the height of the boom.

Nice to see they also have a proper EV strategy, although I am not sure how well funded or coordinated it is since I left Southern Alberta behind back around Y2K...

https://www.calgary.ca/Transportatio...-strategy.aspx

[Mister F]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

I want lighter vehicles as it helps with handling and will also help hybrids as they try to keep up on fuel economy. It is an important topic and will be in the long term and short term even with electric auto's. All I can say is we will need a lot more than wind mills and solar panels if we wish to keep up with all the cars and trucks coming on line if they are electric. This is not going to be nearly as easy as you think.

I find this point that skeptics of EVs keep bringing up kind of comical. These challenges pale in comparison to the challenges that the first cars faced. There were no gas stations. Very little road infrastructure. No oil industry. Primitive and dangerous vehicles. The challenges facing the automotive industry at the beginning of the 20th century were much larger than what faces electric cars today.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Mister F

I find this point that skeptics of EVs keep bringing up kind of comical. These challenges pale in comparison to the challenges that the first cars faced. There were no gas stations. Very little road infrastructure. No oil industry. Primitive and dangerous vehicles. The challenges facing the automotive industry at the beginning of the 20th century were much larger than what faces electric cars today.

What's comical is people comparing the change from gas to electric to the change from horse to car. We live in a much different era in wich people like to travel quickly with options. Electric vehicles are still very limited at this point. Until you can travel from lets say NYC to an open event in wich cars are parked in an open field or a rural area 200 miles away without a problem they are not real options yet. Sure in the future they will be, BUT THEY ARE NOT NOW.

I will also say the problems supplying large amounts of electric cars and trucks will be huge and will cost trillions of dollars to correct. My guess is electric and gas hybrids will be around for many years to come. You really think the gas companies are going to go down without a massive political fight? They are no more evil than the electric companies or drug addict Musk who I could see going to jail down the road for securities fraud.

[F1 Tommy]

That and the fact that the current batteries and battery production do very little to fight climate change. I will buy one when they have better range and better batteries. By he way, all the Tesla owners I know complain about the poor brakes on Tesla's.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

What's comical is people comparing the change from gas to electric to the change from horse to car. We live in a much different era in wich people like to travel quickly with options.

The change will happen because it's cheaper and easier. Simple as that. Putting electrons in your car is cheaper than putting distilled fermented dino juice in there. And being able to charge at home or at work, beats having to go to a gas station regularly. You'll see it mostly starting with two car families. And as the fast charging networks improve, you'll the see the primary car or the single car being replaced. The flood of EV models isn't even coming to North America for at least a year. Once it starts, you'll start seeing those two car families switch one over when they need to replace a vehicle.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

Electric vehicles are still very limited at this point. Until you can travel from lets say NYC to an open event in wich cars are parked in an open field or a rural area 200 miles away without a problem they are not real options yet. Sure in the future they will be, BUT THEY ARE NOT NOW.

There are 70 million two car families in the US who probably use one of those cars entirely within a 50 mile radius of their home. For them 200 miles of range is plenty. And they'll just use the big honking SUV for roadtrips.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

I will also say the problems supplying large amounts of electric cars and trucks will be huge and will cost trillions of dollars to correct.

Not trillions. But you should indeed look at the amount of money being thrown around to switch to electric. Volkswagen alone is spending €33 billion over the next 5 years on the switch.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

My guess is electric and gas hybrids will be around for many years to come. You really think the gas companies are going to go down without a massive political fight?

They can enjoy fighting the utilities who are salivating at the thought of getting a cut of every drivers "gas" bill.

Originally Posted by F1 Tommy

They are no more evil than the electric companies or drug addict Musk who I could see going to jail down the road for securities fraud.

Tsk tsk. Donald Trump said Musk was a genius who needs to be protected. And the current head of the SEC is a former Alibaba lawyer. Musk is going to hot tubbing in champagne for at least another 4.5 years. And after that, the Chinese will happily take him if the US so much as farts in his direction.