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Originally Posted by acottawa
Metrolinx publishes its studies, so you have a fairly detailed idea of what they’re planning or considering. Often nothing comes of them because the cost benefit doesn’t make sense for the provincial government (Peterborough GO comes to mind). Via doesn’t publish anything but a few lines in its annual reports and the odd meme. We are 6 years into this proposal and the HFR “website” has almost no content.
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Does Metrolinx announce that they are going to do a 5 year preliminary study a few years before they have the money to commission it? Do they publish draft studies before they are complete? If not, how long does it take for them to publish the study after it is complete?
VIA only just completed their first actual study on HFR. Everything else was preliminary work to justify money from the government and the only way they could get that money was to announce it prematurely.
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My understanding is the discussion was about reasons why the announced funding over the next 6 years is only a fraction of what it would cost to build the project Via has been describing.
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It certainly started with that and then migrated. I am certainly puzzled by the timeline and budget. If they had only promised 5 or 10 million, it would be obvious that the government is just doing a lateral pass instead of saying no, but with the budget promised the commitment seems more real. Then again, any money promised beyond 2021-22 isn't truly real, as it could be cut from the budget next year.
Some say the rest of the money will come from the CIB, and while that might be the case, I am not convinced. Another option (and it is just a guess) is that VIA may have some confidential insight to a future "event," that if/when it happens, it will make HFR easier. This is only a guess and I can only speculate what type of event it could be, but some ideas are:
- The government plans to build a freight rail bypass around Toronto,
- CN and/or CP want to relocate the Côte Saint-Luc yard off island, or
- Some type of rail merger or purchase involving CP (or less likely CN).
I don't know if any of these events will happen, but even one of them could make the acquisition of key assets required by VIA much easier. Yes I am grasping at straws, but as I said, the timeframe and budget are a bit of mystery as things just don't quite make sense with the information we have.