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Originally Posted by someone123
Not everywhere in the world is like North America but we have seen places become more NA-like as they get wealthier and start to buy some of the same things like more meat and bigger vehicles. Beijing is full of cars now while a lot of people rode bikes there in 1980. China is still scaling out its coal generation I believe.
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You're missing a few points here. Beijing may be full of cars, but they are not F150s. And not only are those cars not huge, but they are electrifying their auto industry at a substantially faster rate than us. Why? Because for the Chinese government, oil imports are a massive strategic liability. The same is true for India too. Like I said, this is something oil exporters just don't understand. But if you read the press of any country that has ever had a balance of payments crisis, you'll see that they don't see higher oil consumption the way an exec sitting in Calgary might.
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Originally Posted by someone123
In the dirt poor areas the capital costs matter a lot and people use old things longer when they can.
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Indeed. This is why I said, we're about to see what happens when batteries cost $100/kWh (which we're hitting now) and OEMs can build a small BEV for the same cost as a small ICEV. If both cars, cost the same, which would you choose?
The only reason purchase price parity is far away in North America is because we drive larger vehicles and want higher ranges. That's not nearly as applicable in a lot of the world. It's why, electrification of two and three wheelers in Asia, has rocketed past even the most optimistic forecasts. And nobody who lives in F150 country will ever truly understand this because it doesn't jive with what we see on the street.
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123
It is a bit like that in North America too where rich people run out to buy electric cars while poor people drive 15 year old cars.
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Gas is relatively (to income) cheap here. That's what leads to your assumptions (which are really projections here). Look at what it costs in a lot of developing countries. And look at their electrification rates (especially for 2 and three wheelers). In China, the middle class will buy a BYD Electric while the rich buy a BMW 7 series. In India, the poor will buy an electric scooter while the rich buy Mercedes sedans. In Thailand, all their Tuks Tuks are getting electrified, for both reasons of pollution and to reduce oil imports.
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Originally Posted by someone123
I think there will be an energy transition away from fossil fuels but it is hard to model and uncertain. It's not just obviously going to happen within a couple decades everywhere and we can't say anybody who disagrees must be an idiot or a shill. It is true that the Saudis are not exactly impartial when it comes to making predictions about the oil industry.
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Like I said, doesn't need to happen in a couple of decades. Could take a century. That's irrelevant to economics. Markets are forward looking. When peak oil demand becomes obvious and OPEC falls apart, higher priced oil (like Canadian oil sands) will be the first to take the hit. It will start with reduction in capital expenditure and over time will lead to slow and steady wind downs.
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