Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

That this has happened in Ontario is surprising, but no surprise about where it’s going to go – the Premier and all party leaders are against it so it will be overturned.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...ium%3Dsharebar

[New Brisavoine]

I'm surprised the keffiyeh is banned in Ontario in the first place. It's not even banned in the French Parliament!

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

I'm surprised the keffiyeh is banned in Ontario in the first place. It's not even banned in the French Parliament!

I doubt it will be banned for long at Queen's Park, which is the Ontario provincial legislature.

This sounds like an overstep by the Speaker of the Legislature, who didn't consult anyone. He's going to get overruled, somehow.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I doubt it will be banned for long at Queen's Park, which is the Ontario provincial legislature.

This sounds like an overstep by the Speaker of the Legislature, who didn't consult anyone. He's going to get overruled, somehow.

I think it requires a unanimous consent of the House. There may be a more formal mechanism that doesn't require unanimity, I don't know.

[Truenorth00]

Thoughts? Long article. I am just posting the opening half.

Chris Selley: Quebec discovers to its alarm that French isn't really dying in the province

The Office Québécois de la Langue Française (OQLF) released a study earlier this month on the state of the French language in Quebec and, as per normal, many headlines focused on potentially negative findings. The notion that French is mortally imperilled in Quebec, certainly in the medium and long term, has baked itself firmly into the country’s politics and journalism.

“Exclusive use of French at work declines in Quebec: OQLF study,” read one headline.

“Montrealers less likely to use French in the workplace (than other Quebecers),” said another.

And “More than 14.4 per cent of Quebecers now order their meals (for delivery) in English.”

We also got some utterly shocking positive headlines, however, reflecting the OQLF study’s main finding — to wit, “The use of French in public life is stable in Quebec.”

That’s right: Near as the OQLF can tell, the state of French in Quebec isn’t materially different than it was 10 or 20 years ago. This is somewhat akin to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change casually releasing a new report showing we don’t have all that much to worry about, and many decades to adjust and adapt. It would require some serious rethinking of priorities and policy.

In 2022, the OQLF found, the number of Quebecers using only French most often in public was 79 per cent — a change of zero per cent since 2007. The number using only English most often actually shrank slightly, from 11 per cent in 2007 to eight per cent in 2022.

And if you include people who speak English and French equally often in public life — a fair few Montrealers and people in the Outaouais region — the number speaking French on a day-to-day basis rises to 92 per cent, up from 90 per cent in 2007.

....

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/que...nch-isnt-dying

[kwoldtimer]

Well, it does make a change from the "policies are not working so let's implement more of it" mantra.

A propos of nothing much, I was down in Knowlton for the eclipse and found the language dynamics fascinating. A strong representation of anglophones (the eclipse event I attended was 100% English), but actually difficult to be sure in many cases whether the person had Engish or French as a first language. Amazing amounts of switching back in forth. Other nearby towns seemed more francophone.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Thoughts? Long article. I am just posting the opening half.



https://nationalpost.com/opinion/que...nch-isnt-dying

Good news and bad news appears in the news cycle, is my reaction. After a fairly long string of bad news stories for French and its future, it's a nice change.

That said, I think that mother tongue and language spoken at home (stats for which are negative for French) are better indicators of what the future holds. They give an idea of what likely percentage of the population will have French as their main personal and family language, as opposed to it being a second (or third) language that they can speak if they have to.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Good news and bad news appears in the news cycle, is my reaction. After a fairly long string of bad news stories for French and its future, it's a nice change.

That said, I think that mother tongue and language spoken at home (stats for which are negative for French) are better indicators of what the future holds. They give an idea of what likely percentage of the population will have French as their main personal and family language, as opposed to it being a second (or third) language that they can speak if they have to.

A better indication of what the future holds for language spoken at home, perhaps. It is no business of the State.

[big T]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Good news and bad news appears in the news cycle, is my reaction. After a fairly long string of bad news stories for French and its future, it's a nice change.

That said, I think that mother tongue and language spoken at home (stats for which are negative for French) are better indicators of what the future holds. They give an idea of what likely percentage of the population will have French as their main personal and family language, as opposed to it being a second (or third) language that they can speak if they have to.

I agree with all of this.

I've mostly lost faith in government-produced stats on heavily political topics. It's actually really hard to put out objectively useful data that gets rid of most (can't be all) biases, and there is simply no incentive for any government to ignore the chance to push a narrative. Funny how this comes out as the CAQ is tanking and PQ looking better than ever in the past decade.

And this is from me, who happens to think French is doing quite well here overall.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Good news and bad news appears in the news cycle, is my reaction. After a fairly long string of bad news stories for French and its future, it's a nice change.

That said, I think that mother tongue and language spoken at home (stats for which are negative for French) are better indicators of what the future holds. They give an idea of what likely percentage of the population will have French as their main personal and family language, as opposed to it being a second (or third) language that they can speak if they have to.

Are the mother tongue numbers indicative of a problem? Wouldn't the current trend see little change in a 100 years? Especially as immigrants and migrant Anglophones who have children and who don't assimilate into French culture tend to move to the rest of Canada.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Are the mother tongue numbers indicative of a problem? Wouldn't the current trend see little change in a 100 years? Especially as immigrants and migrant Anglophones who have children and who don't assimilate into French culture tend to move to the rest of Canada.

Statistics Canada forecasts that the % of mother tongue francophones in Quebec will drop by 10% to around 70% by 2036. It's around 80% right now and was about 85% from the 1960s until just a few years ago.

So we're talking about a decent drop way before 100 years. In just over a decade in fact.

And anglophones in Quebec generally aren't assimilating to francophone culture. Immigrants for their part still split close to down the middle between francophone culture and anglophone culture, which is a net gain for the anglophone share since they are much more numerous and would normally be drawing 10% and not close to half of newcomers if the proportions were accurately reflected.

Even in Montreal if the local demographic proportions were reflected you'd only have maybe 20% of newcomers going to English, as opposed to half at the moment.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Yes this has been the big trend of the 21st century though I wonder if it isn't going to run out of steam soon as Canada's economy and governance sputters and the gap in cost of living and affordability starts to narrow between Quebec and France, to the latter's advantage.

I would expect property prices and rents to reset hard in Quebec if PSPP wins the election and follows through with the 3rd referendum? Seems like a very real possibility at this point.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Especially as immigrants and migrant Anglophones who have children and who don't assimilate into French culture tend to move to the rest of Canada.

I'd add that the trend of people who don't integrate with francophones or even of those who don't speak any French moving out of Quebec to the ROC has stopped and even reversed. More of them are staying and more of them are moving in. The anglophone population and the share of people who speak only English is rising for the first time in about 50 years.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Statistics Canada forecasts that the % of mother tongue francophones in Quebec will drop by 10% to around 70% by 2036. It's around 80% right now and was about 85% from the 1960s until just a few years ago.

So we're talking about a decent drop way before 100 years. In just over a decade in fact.

And anglophones in Quebec generally aren't assimilating to francophone culture. Immigrants for their part still split close to down the middle between francophone culture and anglophone culture, which is a net gain for the anglophone share since they are much more numerous and would normally be drawing 10% and not close to half of newcomers if the proportions were accurately reflected.

Even in Montreal if the local demographic proportions were reflected you'd only have maybe 20% of newcomers going to English, as opposed to half at the moment.

The question is what will the grandchildren of these immigrants speak. They will speak French or they will move out of Quebec. The draconian policies are pretty effective at ensuring that. So we will have brown Francophones which if that's a problem the issue isn't language.

[thewave46]

The coincidence of a resurgent referendum debate after a decade of Trudeau reimagining of the role of the federal government is not lost on me. Same with Albertan/Western Canada irritation.

Quebec seems on much more solid economic ground than 1980 or 1995 though, even comparatively when the conditions writ large of the era are factored in. Does one ride the wave when things are good? It’s a strategy with both pros and cons. Might want to do it before fiscal reality becomes actual reality in the next decade or so.

PSPP certainly benefitted from a CAQ implosion, but his rhetoric is pretty strong; a level certainly not seen since Bernard Landry. At least he’s clear about his point.

A big roll of the dice I suppose, and a seeming world away from a decade ago.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The question is what will the grandchildren of these immigrants speak. They will speak French or they will move out of Quebec. The draconian policies are pretty effective at ensuring that. So we will have brown Francophones which if that's a problem the issue isn't language.

Lots of brown francophones AND lots of brown anglophones, because as I mentioned in another post, anglophones and anglicized allophones are staying put in Quebec now.

The net inflow of English speakers of all kinds and origins is greater than their net outflow.

The English-oriented segment of the population is growing faster than the francophone segment, regardless of origins.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

I would expect property prices and rents to reset hard in Quebec if PSPP wins the election and follows through with the 3rd referendum? Seems like a very real possibility at this point.

I am not sure it would be a suddenly brutal reset if PSPP simply gets elected. It will depend on whether he gets a majority and how big it will be.

I'd expect more of a slow burn up to the hypothetical referendum, with some volatility depending on how the campaign and polling are going.

All that being said, I wonder how affordability in the rest of Canada will affect this. Some strongly pro-Canada types may still opt to wait things out in Quebec given the high cost of a relocation to the ROC - especially in the places that are likely to be appealling to them.

Toronto was definitely always more expensive than Montreal, but I think there was less of a sticker shock going down the 401 say 30 or 40 years ago than there is today. Even Montreal isn't much of a bargain anymore, and Toronto is insane.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

I'm surprised the keffiyeh is banned in Ontario in the first place. It's not even banned in the French Parliament!

Originally Posted by Acajack

I doubt it will be banned for long at Queen's Park, which is the Ontario provincial legislature.

This sounds like an overstep by the Speaker of the Legislature, who didn't consult anyone. He's going to get overruled, somehow.

In Canada (not 100% sure if this is common to all Westminister parliaments or not), it is considered a violation of parliamentary tradition/custom to use political props in Parliament (so things like holding up signs, infograpics, using objects during a debate, etc.). The current dispute is over whether or not wearing of a keffiyah is considered a "political prop".

To me, if some white progressive MPP from Toronto wears a keffiyah as an explicit pro-Palestine gesture, that is definitely a political prop and it should remain banned. But if some MPP who is actually Arab wears it in a more everyday context, it's simply a clothing choice and shouldn't be banned.

The solution here, IMO, is to simply give the speaker discretion to decide, on a case by case basis, whether any specific use of a keffiyah by a member is "political" or not (and if so, they should be instructed to remove it or leave the House).

[Acajack]

For those who understand French, TVA and Le Journal de Montréal (same owner and sharing news resources) are doing an extended series on the state of French in Anglo-Canada.

The first two reports are online now. One is from Sudbury in Northern Ontario and the other from Southwestern Nova Scotia. Two regions I know well. Nothing I didn't know already or have factual objections to.

https://twitter.com/tvanouvelles/sta...82344525271142

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Well, it does make a change from the "policies are not working so let's implement more of it" mantra.

A propos of nothing much, I was down in Knowlton for the eclipse and found the language dynamics fascinating. A strong representation of anglophones (the eclipse event I attended was 100% English), but actually difficult to be sure in many cases whether the person had Engish or French as a first language. Amazing amounts of switching back in forth. Other nearby towns seemed more francophone.

I also travelled to the same area (not Knowlton exactly, but another town a few km away) for the eclipse. I did so because it was the closest point to me where the weather forecast was guaranteed to be sunny (it turns out it was sunny in Kingston after all, so... ). I think a lot of people in Ontario and the Northeast US did the same thing. I didn't go to a formal event, but I ended up in a park where a few other people had congregated as well (a few dozen) and almost all were speaking English. So most of the crowd was probably not actually local to the region.