Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123
It seems pretty clear that, all else being equal, a person living in the same town as the stadium is going to have a much, much bigger impact on ticket sales than somebody living 2 hours away. The Regina case suggests that the impact is at least one order of magnitude.
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There is no question that the majority of ticket sales will be generated in the host city. No one will dispute this. Regina however
is successful with a metro population of only 210k, which is not "orders of magnitude" different than Moncton (CMA pop 144k and growing).
Quote:
Originally Posted by someone123
The argument that Moncton is more central and has more of a regional market isn't actually very strong. It's much easier for most people in Nova Scotia to get to Halifax and Nova Scotia has half of the population of the Maritimes. About 1/3 of the population of the whole region lives within an hour or so of Halifax (the central NS counties have 620,000 people).
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It is undoubtedly true that NS has half the population of the Maritimes, but it is
also very true that the other half does
not live in NS, and that about 42% of those people live in NB. The other 8% live in PEI, with almost all of those living within a 90 minute drive of Moncton.
I agree that the majority of Nova Scotian's live in the central part of the province near Halifax. You have no arguement from me there.
I suppose that the comparable area to your "central Nova Scotia counties" would be the three counties in the Moncton area (Westmoreland/Albert/Kent). This is a geographically smaller area than your central NS counties and contains about 205,000 people. I think it would be fair to throw in Cumberland County NS because in many ways, Cumberland falls in the economic sphere of Moncton and the vast majority of the county's population is within an hour of the city. Amherst itself is only 40 minutes from Moncton. This increaes our "central county" population to about 245,000.
Even without going further afield, to Charlottetown, Fredericton, Miramichi etc, our immediate catchment population still compares very favourably to Regina, which is interesting since this is the city and team that the commissioner feels that we should be emulating in terms of an economic model.
Please note that I am not trying to downplay the very significant challenges in obtaining a CFL team for the hub city. Moncton would have to be very smart in marketing the team throughout the region. We have already done this with the Touchdown Atlantic games, with things like team appearances and training camps in places like Charlottetown.
Would Halifax be so aggressive in marketing the team throughout the entire region? My gut feeling is that they wouldn't. Halifax has a very narrow vision of the Maritimes, and tends not to give much consideration to places beyond Kentville, Bridgewater or the Cobequid Pass. A Halifax CFL team would likely only be just that -
a CFL team for Halifax. I doubt that you would see the Halifax Schooners make any special appearances in places like Summerside, Saint John or Edmundston.
In any event, this is a project for the long haul. Considering ownership and stadium issues, it will be 10-15 years before any regional team comes to fruition. By the time it happens, I'll likely be too old to go to the games!!