So we now know when the commencement date of the next legislative sitting - June 22.
I suspect that the Speaker matter will eventually be resolved before the sitting begins.
The Libs will introduce their Throne Speech and a subsequent vote will be held to test the "confidence of the House". Undoubtedly, the Libs will fall as a result.
Accordingly, CC will then submit her preem resignation letter to the LG and advise the LG to call upon Horgan/Weaver to form gov't.
BTW, CC will still remain the LG's 1st minister until another has been sworn in (read: Horgan). Involves the doctrine of continuity.
And this is where matters become quite interesting, which I have repeated over again ad nauseum.
The key issue for the LG is stability. The LG must be satisfied that the 43 + 43 + 1 Speaker legislature will last for at least one year. Most constitutional & poli sci experts consider the GreeNDP accord "precarious".
Whatever the LG decides upon, it will set a precedent in the Westminster system. Yesterday morning, Global TV's Keith Baldrey, on CHNL, stated that every vice-regal counterpart across the entire British Commonwealth from Kenya to elsewhere will be following the BC LG's decision closely as it will set new precedent.
Even BC NDP leader Horgan yesterday told News1130:
Quote:
“We don’t know what the lieutenant governor will do."
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Another indication of how complex the LG matter really is.
The LG may well grant the GreeNDP to form minority gov't.
But what if the LG decides to reject same as she is not satisfied that it is either "stable" or would not last at least one year? What happens next?
CC still remains the LG's 1st minister and the LG always seeks advice from her 1st minister - the LG may accept or reject same but the LG does not act unilaterally.
2 possible points of advice that CC could then offer the LG:
1. Dissolve the House (new election) - CC has already publicly stated that she will not advise the LG as such. Moreover, federal GG Jean precedent was "would be irresponsible to call another election within 6 months".
2. Advise the LG that an an arrangement with Weaver/Greens may be possible. Remember that Weaver was also in negotiations with the Liberals post-election and stated publicly that stability was his main goal. Such an arrangement would result in a 45 - 41 + 1 Speaker scenario, which would likely satisfy the LG's requirements for stability for at least one-year.
That said, don't expect the Greens to enter into the same detailed accord they entered into with the NDP. All the written arrangement would require is for the Greens to abstain (not support) confidence and supply bills for at least one year. That's it. Weaver/Greens certainly don't want another election either.
Again, IF the LG does not accept the GreeNDP accord, this will be the likely next scenario IMHO.