Canadian Airport Thread II

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by thenoflyzone

Snapshot of Q1 2024 stats for Canada's busiest airport.

YYZ - N/A
YVR - 5,994,036 +9.1%
YUL - 5,028,321 +11.3%
YYC - 4,065,701 +6.75%
YEG - 1,693,692 +1.0%
YOW - 1,084,416 +14.0%
YWG - 965,617 +6.2%

By chance, do you have the number for YHZ? Curious where they sit in relation to YOW and YWG.

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by Justanothermember

The Hamilton and Ottawa situations are vastly different.

With Hamilton, they lost the vast majority of their passenger service when Swoop left, having only Calgary service remaining until recently. With Ottawa, losing WS Montego Bay, Cancun and Orlando flights are only a drop in the bucket in terms of overall service (let alone WS service), not to mention other airlines already servicing these destinations.

KW will undergo a similar fate as Hamilton when Flair ultimately goes under.

What makes you think their fate is sealed?

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Harrison

What makes you think their fate is sealed?

Does anyone think they'll make it?

[Harley613]

So good to see YOW making big strides, the post-covid recovery has been brutal. There is so much potential in this market, and new investments from Porter, the airport authority terminal upgrades, the city building a train soon to open, and a shiny new terminal hotel are only going to boost it further.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Harley613

So good to see YOW making big strides, the post-covid recovery has been brutal. There is so much potential in this market, and new investments from Porter, the airport authority terminal upgrades, the city building a train soon to open, and a shiny new terminal hotel are only going to boost it further.

Despite the WS-WG consolidation and F8 only maintaining a token presence moving forward, the coming months should see some pretty exciting developments for YOW on the PD front...and one could dream about BA for summer 2025.

YOW's still playing catch-up though. Imagine the hole YOW would still be in if it weren't for PD & AF.

AF are clearly demonstrating that demand for transatlantic still outweighs supply with most flights having +90% LFs even on the upgauged HD 359. Summer 2025, if AF still have the market to themselves, they'd easily fill the mid-density 48J 77W (the 77W HD doesn't have enough J seats). After that, they'd be looking at going beyond daily...a PD-AF codeshare would certainly give that concept a major boost.

[Harley613]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Despite the WS-WG consolidation and F8 only maintaining a token presence moving forward, the coming months should see some pretty exciting developments for YOW.

YOW's still playing catch-up though. Imagine the hole YOW would still be in if it weren't for PD & AF.

AF are clearly demonstrating that demand for transatlantic still outweighs supply with most flights having +90% LFs even on the upgauged HD 359.

Absolutely. AC has a real opportunity to re-test the waters post-covid on LHR with those A321-XLR's once they start deliveries. That flight is a no-brainer, and a good compliment to AF CDG. Ottawa-Gatineau folks are too quick to jump in the car and drive to YUL, but given options, I think it could change fast. My parents spent the past two winters in Europe, but they didn't even search for flights from YOW. Given some press, some momentum, and good connections, I think at least two more trans-atlantic connections are viable within this decade.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Harley613

Absolutely. AC has a real opportunity to re-test the waters post-covid on LHR with those A321-XLR's once they start deliveries. That flight is a no-brainer, and a good compliment to AF CDG. Ottawa-Gatineau folks are too quick to jump in the car and drive to YUL, but given options, I think it could change fast. My parents spent the past two winters in Europe, but they didn't even search for flights from YOW. Given some press, some momentum, and good connections, I think at least two more trans-atlantic connections are viable within this decade.

If PD and the YOW Airport Authority can convince TS to base a 321LR, followed by a 2nd frame a year or two later, YOW's transatlantic network could be a half dozen destinations minimum...or convince WS to add international and copy what they do at YHZ.

Narrowbodies aside, there's no reason why YOW can't have the same breadth of transatlantic destinations as YHZ. Heck with ETOPS 120 on the E95 now possible, KEF if the one European destination within range for PD...and they interline with FI.

My two YOW-CDG flights in the past couple of weeks were both 100% full on the 359. While two flights is anecdotal, demand definitely still exceeds supply.

[Truenorth00]

Looking at the *A network I think there's two destinations that are necessary and two that could work for YOW with 321XLR.

Necessary: LHR/LGW/STN, FRA/MUC
Likely: BRU, IST

Given Ottawa's immigrant communities in Africa and the Middle East, I feel like BRU and IST could provide the onwards connections to compete with AF at CDG. For the necessary destinations, they need some port in London (Heathrow preferred) and some plug into Lufthansa's network (Frankfurt preferred). I feel like it's possible at least 2-3 of the 4 could be year round.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Looking at the *A network I think there's two destinations that are necessary and two that could work for YOW with 321XLR.

Necessary: LHR/LGW/STN, FRA/MUC
Likely: BRU, IST

Given Ottawa's immigrant communities in Africa and the Middle East, I feel like BRU and IST could provide the onwards connections to compete with AF at CDG. For the necessary destinations, they need some port in London (Heathrow preferred) and some plug into Lufthansa's network (Frankfurt preferred). I feel like it's possible at least 2-3 of the 4 could be year round.

The problem with IST is the bilateral needs more eastern frequencies. TK were granted an extra weekly exemption for this summer. 10x weekly AF is more likely than TK.

London will be back for YOW. It's just a question of when. I wonder if the YOW Airport Authority have had any talks with LH since LH abandoned the YOW-FRA plans? Wonder if they've ever tried courting DE?

TS could easily fill a 321 2-3x weekly to DUB, GLA, FCO, LGW and somewhere(s) in Spain summer seasonally with the full-blown codeshare with TS. Heck probably even 3x weekly to CDG would work even with AF, if AF were only to remain daily.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

By chance, do you have the number for YHZ? Curious where they sit in relation to YOW and YWG.

No I don't.

Originally Posted by Dominion301

If PD and the YOW Airport Authority can convince TS to base a 321LR, followed by a 2nd frame a year or two later, YOW's transatlantic network could be a half dozen destinations minimum...or convince WS to add international and copy what they do at YHZ.

Narrowbodies aside, there's no reason why YOW can't have the same breadth of transatlantic destinations as YHZ. Heck with ETOPS 120 on the E95 now possible, KEF if the one European destination within range for PD...and they interline with FI.

My two YOW-CDG flights in the past couple of weeks were both 100% full on the 359. While two flights is anecdotal, demand definitely still exceeds supply.

You don't even need ETOPS 120 to fly to KEF. it's preferable, but not required. It can be done without.

When AC was sending the Rouge A319s to KEF, they weren't ETOPS certified.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Looking at the *A network I think there's two destinations that are necessary and two that could work for YOW with 321XLR.

Necessary: LHR/LGW/STN, FRA/MUC
Likely: BRU, IST

Given Ottawa's immigrant communities in Africa and the Middle East, I feel like BRU and IST could provide the onwards connections to compete with AF at CDG. For the necessary destinations, they need some port in London (Heathrow preferred) and some plug into Lufthansa's network (Frankfurt preferred). I feel like it's possible at least 2-3 of the 4 could be year round.

I think the necessary routes you list are the most likely to happen as well.

BRU and IST are both long shots. Especially the latter.

[thewave46]

I am surprised that Lufthansa didn’t look at YOW again given that FRA is a major transit point. There’s enough diplomatic transit passengers connecting onwards.

Good for Air France for tapping the well in the meantime, but I imagine they already knew a bunch of their passengers were coming from the Ottawa area via Montreal.

It will get tougher for AF once AC receives their A321XLRs, as YOW-LHR and YOW-FRA will be some of the quickest routes to return. But AF will make hay while the sun shines.

Beyond CDG, LHR, and FRA? Erm…I won’t hold my breath unless a Euro operator gets some XLRs and tries something seasonally. 3 Euro cities for an airport of 5 million passengers and a catchment of a couple million isn’t too shabby.

[YOWflier]

Every additional service we get, up to a reasonable ceiling, will mainly serve to reclaim passengers transiting/leaking to other ports. If we end up in a near term steady state of AF to CDG, someone to LHR, and someone to FRA, I’ll be pleased. And that’s without any PD partnership, which could change the landscape considerably.

[samuelx88]

Is YQB likely to get new routes to Europe in 2024-2025?

This summer:
TS YQB-CDG 4X
AF YQB-CDG 3X
TS YQB-LGW 1X

In the winter:
TS YQB-CDG 2X

Back in 2008, YQB had flights to CDG, ORY, NTE, BOD, MRS

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by samuelx88

Is YQB likely to get new routes to Europe in 2024-2025?

This summer:
TS YQB-CDG 4X
AF YQB-CDG 3X
TS YQB-LGW 1X

In the winter:
TS YQB-CDG 2X

Back in 2008, YQB had flights to CDG, ORY, NTE, BOD, MRS

TS is the only one that can realistically launch new routes to Europe out of YQB at the moment, and they don’t seem too interested to diverge from their strategy of beefing up YUL/YYZ. So the short answer is no.

Icelandair, the only other potential candidate in the short term, clearly isn’t too interested in serving YQB either.

Quebec City is already well served to Europe for a city of its size, especially now with AF in the market. So I don’t expect anything else to Europe at the moment.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

By chance, do you have the number for YHZ? Curious where they sit in relation to YOW and YWG.

I emailed the YHZ Airport Authority and they sent them to me:

March 2024 vs 2023 & 2019:
Sector / 2019 / 2023 / 2024 / % Change: vs 2023 / vs 2019
Domestic: 237,677 / 207,874 / 206,714 (0.6%) / (13.0%)
Transborder: 39,016 / 23,230 / 24,588 / +5.8% / (37.0%)
International: 48,655 / 49,116 / 54,562 / +11.1% / +12.1%
Total: 325,348 / 280,220 / 285,864 / +2.0% / (12.1%)

Year-to-Date
Sector / 2019 / 2023 / 2024 / % Change: vs 2023 / vs 2019
Domestic: 650,494 / 548,104 / 541,407 / (1.2%) / (16.8%)
Transborder: 84,692 / 50,148 / 59,049 / +17.7% / (30.3%)
International: 93,213 / 102,072 / 126,802 / +24.2% / +36.0%
Total: 828,399 / 700,324 / 727,258 / +3.8% / (12.2%)

So a negative domestic number is in line with YOW, YWG & YEG.

[king10]

Hamilton stats are out. 820,011, up 27%

https://flyhamilton.ca/hamilton-inte...ear-in-review/

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by king10

Hamilton stats are out. 820,011, up 27%

https://flyhamilton.ca/hamilton-inte...ear-in-review/

Just wait for the plunge in 2024 with Lynx gone and WS mainline not even half the size of Swoop. YHM will be lucky to break 400k in 2024. Unfortunately it's the airport that can never seem to catch a break. They could sure use PD to YOW to bring some-much needed frequency and stability.

[Justanothermember]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Just wait for the plunge in 2024 with Lynx gone and WS mainline not even half the size of Swoop. YHM will be lucky to break 400k in 2024. Unfortunately it's the airport that can never seem to catch a break. They could sure use PD to YOW to bring some-much needed frequency and stability.

Don't forget the AC bus thing. I'll think that will also have an impact on passenger numbers with people now having a luxurious (supposedly) direct express connection to YYZ.

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Just wait for the plunge in 2024 with Lynx gone and WS mainline not even half the size of Swoop. YHM will be lucky to break 400k in 2024. Unfortunately it's the airport that can never seem to catch a break. They could sure use PD to YOW to bring some-much needed frequency and stability.

The AC bus numbers will count towards pax, which I think is pathetic. But even with that, I think it’ll be shy of 400k.

In 2015, YHM just broke 300k.
In that year, they had:
2x Daily YYC (Year-Round)
1x Daily YEG (Summer)
1x Daily YQM (Summer)
1x Daily YHZ (Summer)
Plus a bunch of single weekly flights to Cuba and Mexico.

This year
1x Daily YYC (Summer) / 5x Weekly (Rest of year)
1x Daily KEF (Summer) / 5x Weekly (Rest of year)
1x Daily YHZ (Summer)
5x Weekly YSJ (Summer)
2x Weekly MCO (Year-Round)
Plus whatever winter flights there are to Cuba and Mexico. Oh and that AC bus service that counts towards pax.

[IRT_BMT_IND]

This summer (until October) some *A flights from YYZ will be using the infield terminal with busing from T1 in the late afternoon/early evening peak. The airlines affected are TAP, Avianca, Turkish, SAS, and LOT, which are all *A but AFAIK do not have a revenue sharing agreement with Air Canada like Lufthansa has. This might be the first time the IFT has been used for T1 overflow (at least for reasons not due to construction) since Pier F opened in 2007. Really it shows how overcrowded T1 is getting, the GTAA needs to get moving on whatever expansion plans they've shelved since COVID.