The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[jonny golden]

There's some interesting data in Bill Hennessey's presentation to city council. We're having a hard time keeping up with demand for housing in Moncton, that's obvious. What jumped out at me was that there's a large number of units in the pipeline that aren't progressing at this time.

Quote: "3,897, the stuff that’s sitting on people’s desks that they’re not mobilizing because they can’t make it commercially viable,” Hennessey told City Council.”

If/when conditions change, we could see a lot more construction activity in Moncton.

https://www.919thebend.ca/2024/05/07/75070/

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Incredible, if thats true that would put Moncton CMA around 186,000

[new kid in town]

According to the president of MAGMA (https://tools.magma-amgm.org/MAGMA/) in a medical conference last week, "The word is out, Moncton is a nice place to live" and therefore continues to attract a lot of new immigrants. Curious to know how much of the new growth is from other provinces (and whether those are citizens or not) vs. completely new immigrants.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Incredible, if thats true that would put Moncton CMA around 186,000

Personally, at this point in time (May 2024), given that sort of growth rate, I think the Moncton CMA is probably pushing 190,000. Will we see 200,000 people in greater Moncton by 2025???

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Personally, at this point in time (May 2024), given that sort of growth rate, I think the Moncton CMA is probably pushing 190,000. Will we see 200,000 people in greater Moncton by 2025???

Consider the industrial parks! That's a pretty good indicator of growth in the city. And all the residential construction that's happening, with buildings being fully leased before construction is complete.

It might be pushing it, but if Bill Hennessey is right I think we could get close to 200,000 by the end of 2025.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by jonny golden

Consider the industrial parks! That's a pretty good indicator of growth in the city. And all the residential construction that's happening, with buildings being fully leased before construction is complete.

It might be pushing it, but if Bill Hennessey is right I think we could get close to 200,000 by the end of 2025.

Being a Saint Johnner and a natural pessimist, I'm wondering how many of these announced industrial park projects pan out, even the ones where land has been acquired. A stronger downturn could really put a damper on Moncton's growth. There's some risk of overdeveloping. Don't get me wrong, rooting for Moncton's success here. But trends are finite. A bunch of brand new, serviced, industrial park lots could end up a white elephant if the existing purchased lots don't mostly get developed.

[Bishop2047]

Employment increased in Ontario (+25,000; +0.3%), British Columbia (+23,000; +0.8%), Quebec (+19,000 +0.4%) and New Brunswick (+7,800; +2.0%) in April. It was little changed in the other provinces.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...40510a-eng.htm

Overall nothing to get to wildly excited about for months to month data, but the East Coast continues to not be what the rest of Canada wants it to be (highly unemployed and highly unmotivated).

[MonctonRad]

CMA POPULATIONS FOR JULY 1st 2023

Halifax (NS) - 518,711
St. John's (NL) - 232,039
Moncton (NB) - 178,791
Saint John (NB) - 138, 985
Fredericton (NB) - 119,059

The Moncton population is almost 10,000 greater than in 2022, meaning that our current population is probably about 188,000.

Moncton is probably within 15-18 months of breaking the 200,000 barrier.

And, to round out the Atlantic "big seven", here are the 2023 population figures for the two largest CAs:

CBRM (Sydney) NS - 109,962
Charlottetown PE - 90,648

[Nashe]

Interesting when we consider the other places we are "reeling in" (some we are not, of course):

Brantford (CMA), Ontario                      167,718
Trois-Rivières (CMA), Quebec                  169,204
Moncton (CMA), New Brunswick                  178,971
Guelph (CMA), Ontario                         180,476
Greater Sudbury (CMA), Ontario                185,230
Kingston (CMA), Ontario	                      188,267
Abbotsford - Mission (CMA), British Columbia  213,785
St. John's (CMA), Newfoundland and Labrador   232,039
Barrie (CMA), Ontario                         238,540

[MonctonRad]

As we climb up the ladder, I suspect we will pass Sudbury and Kingston. The others might be more difficult.

[new kid in town]

Do we know who are the biggest gainers in terms of percentage/relative growth?

[KnoxfordGuy]

Charlottetown will most likely hit offical CMA status in the 2031 census. Unless there is some more solid growth by May 2026 when the census is taken. Not impossible. But if we extrapolate the current data and growth rate, the city proper population will only be 49,000 and the CA will be about 97,000. Just kissing the threshold for the 2026 census haha. Time will tell. For reminding, the numbers need to be 50,000 city proper and 100,000 CMA.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Do we know who are the biggest gainers in terms of percentage/relative growth?

The data is all here:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710014801

I'm at work and too busy currently to do the calculations.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Rough population growth percentage year over year for NB big 3:

Saint John 2.5%
Moncton 6%
Fredericton 4%

[new kid in town]

and pre-

Thank you very much!

[Nashe]

Something like this:

Cape Breton (CA), Nova Scotia                   109,962  6.24%
Kitchener - Cambridge - Waterloo (CMA), Ontario	665,188  5.79%
Moncton (CMA), New Brunswick                    178,971  5.78%
Calgary (CMA), Alberta                        1,682,509  5.69%
Saskatoon (CMA), Saskatchewan                   352,093  4.59%
Charlottetown (CA), Prince Edward Island         90,648  4.59%
Edmonton (CMA), Alberta                       1,563,571  4.04%
Vancouver (CMA), British Columbia             2,971,853  4.03%
Peterborough (CMA), Ontario                     142,737  3.99%
Regina (CMA), Saskatchewan                      271,119  3.90%
Fredericton (CMA), New Brunswick                119,059  3.82%
Halifax (CMA), Nova Scotia                      518,711  3.81%
...
St. John's (CMA), Newfoundland and Labrador     232,039  3.10%

(removed a few smaller ones and aggregate rural areas)

[MonctonRad]

CBRM is doing unusually well. I'm sure this is entirely due to Dave Dingwall and his foreign student grift at CBU.....

[Fischbob]

Sub-provincial population estimates day is basically Christmas for SSP Canada - how exciting!

I'm also at work and can only take a cursory glance at the moment, but wanted to quickly post the Census Subdivision estimates for NB's big 3:

Moncton (City): 91,085 +7.1%
Saint John (City): 75,015 +3.2%
Fredericton (City): 69,406 +4.3%

So Moncton surpasses 90k, SJ claws its way over 75k, and a nice result for Freddy too

Edit: I'll just clarify that the 2021 CSD boundaries, which the above numbers are based on, do not incorporate the recent changes introduced with the province's local government reforms.

Full CSD dataset here: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...pid=1710015501

[q12]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

CBRM is doing unusually well. I'm sure this is entirely due to Dave Dingwall and his foreign student grift at CBU.....

Yep



Source: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GOMOBepW...g&name=900x900

[Nashe]

Totally sustainable.