Provincial Election

[lrt's friend]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

A lot of good comments here. Frankly better than I have seen the media commenting.

Bottom line I see Ford announcing budget is worse than thought. Slow tax cuts starting in last year of mandate. Freeze on transit spending and not sure what that would mean for federal contribution. Salary freeze and hiring freeze on civil service and teachers and maybe all the way to doctors though they are supporting PCs hard.

NDP announcing the same shock. Slowly rolling out their spending sticking to their tax plan. Pleading unsuccessfully for help from unions and running huge deficits that heads towards a crisis if we have a recession around 2020. They would then be thrown out in 2022 by an even more draconian PC leader.

I agree: hopeless wtf.

Maybe vote green for their policy on eliminating the catholic system.

It will simply mean that the federal funding is deferred and can be re-announced in 5 or 10 years again when the project finally goes ahead. This is good for the feds. Deferral is a financial windfall for their budget.

What is less clear is if specific transit projects are cancelled outright. This is what happened when Harris came to power and filled in the Eglinton subway. There is a good chance that the federal contribution goes up in smoke to be used elsewhere.

[Jamaican-Phoenix]

As a side note: I find it so weird that the trend on the right is to drift even further right, all the while yearning for the good old days. I keep hearing older conservatives carry on about the glory of the Bill Davis days. Well, Bill Davis was rather sensible in a number of ways. If the PC's were sensible, then I could see myself voting for any of the three main parties in Ontario.

As it stands however, with all the anti-science and anti-immigrant talk among many PC candidates, as well as the lack of any kind of coherent budget and plan for government, I can't stomach the idea of voting for them, and can't for the life of me understand why others would, even as a "hold my nose" protest vote of sorts.

I know Yasir and while I think he's done a fine job, I do hope the NDP take power as they're the only reasonable alternative to a decade and a half of Liberal missteps and mismanagement.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

If the Greens can get a seat or two and hold the balance of power they could use that to push for abolishing the separate school system, saving about a billion dollars.

We can dream. The Greens might get second in Guelph.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Jamaican-Phoenix

As a side note: I find it so weird that the trend on the right is to drift even further right, all the while yearning for the good old days. I keep hearing older conservatives carry on about the glory of the Bill Davis days. Well, Bill Davis was rather sensible in a number of ways. If the PC's were sensible, then I could see myself voting for any of the three main parties in Ontario.

I think it is hard for the party nomination processes to produce centrists (and not just in the Conservative parties and not just in Ontario). People looking for radical change are most likely to generate enthusiasm, attend conventions, go to nomination meetings, etc.

If we ever got electronic voting, I would like to see a system where all of the people that voted for a party got to vote in the leadership election.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

It will simply mean that the federal funding is deferred and can be re-announced in 5 or 10 years again when the project finally goes ahead. This is good for the feds. Deferral is a financial windfall for their budget.

What is less clear is if specific transit projects are cancelled outright. This is what happened when Harris came to power and filled in the Eglinton subway. There is a good chance that the federal contribution goes up in smoke to be used elsewhere.

I agree this is the key question and very relevant to phase 2 LRT in Ottawa.

Delaying a project 5-10 years might be good in a budget sense for the federal "government" but federal Liberals need to be re-elected based on sweeping Toronto so they might be reluctant to see transit progress stop.

[Paul29]

Originally Posted by lrt's friend

What is less clear is if specific transit projects are cancelled outright. This is what happened when Harris came to power and filled in the Eglinton subway.

I was disinterested in politics at the time (I think I was about 20 when Harris was elected). He stopped Eglinton even though it was well underway and turned around to give Mel Lastman his legacy subway on Sheppard?

As for Ford, hasn't he said many times that he will go ahead with the Scarborough subway?

[acottawa]

"Well underway" is a bit of an exaggeration. They broke ground in late 1994 and the project was cancelled in mid 1995. There was one hole for one station.

[Paul29]

Originally Posted by acottawa

"Well underway" is a bit of an exaggeration. They broke ground in late 1994 and the project was cancelled in mid 1995. There was one hole for one station.

So the planning and digging that one hole in the ground was free? Do you know how long it takes to get to that stage where they dug that hole at Black Creek, how many years it took? No, because if you did then you wouldn't have said it was an exaggeration. Once there are shovels in the ground it's already been a very expensive hole.

[wave46]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

My vote is going to the NDP. The NDP are going to drive us into the ground with excessive spending while Ford is going to drive us into the ground with excessive tax cuts. Its easier to cut excessive spending than it is to reverse tax cuts, so a future government (whether red or blue) could fix the mess left by Horwath a lot more easily than they could fix the mess left by Ford.

Originally Posted by HighwayStar

I consider myself fiscally conservative and socially liberal... and I'll make my decision on Voting Day.

Originally Posted by ars

Same here

I can't ever vote for a party with a tire fire of a leader, that is Doug Ford, in good conscience.

This is pretty much it for me. It is less about choosing a vision for Ontario and more about choosing who will do the least damage.

Had the PCs run a centrist campaign with a relatively bland candidate (Christine Elliot, anyone?) they would have inherited Ontario.

I'm not sure if the leadership doesn't get it, or maybe the hard right wing of the party hijacks the nomination and we get these candidates who sabotage themselves by going too extreme (Tim Hudak, anyone?) or that look to be a disaster already (see: Doug Ford party nomination controversy).

Ontarians are centre to centre-left. The path to victory for the PC party lies in the huge gap in the middle of the spectrum.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by wave46

This is pretty much it for me. It is less about choosing a vision for Ontario and more about choosing who will do the least damage.

Had the PCs run a centrist campaign with a relatively bland candidate (Christine Elliot, anyone?) they would have inherited Ontario.

I'm not sure if the leadership doesn't get it, or maybe the hard right wing of the party hijacks the nomination and we get these candidates who sabotage themselves by going too extreme (Tim Hudak, anyone?) or that look to be a disaster already (see: Doug Ford party nomination controversy).

Ontarians are centre to centre-left. The path to victory for the PC party lies in the huge gap in the middle of the spectrum.

I think it is a combination of not getting it, or possibly correctly thinking they could win regardless, and not caring. In fairness the Browne platform was basically a Liberal platform so why bother. Once Wynne went way left centrist would have looked attractive but they rolled the dice.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by Paul29

So the planning and digging that one hole in the ground was free? Do you know how long it takes to get to that stage where they dug that hole at Black Creek, how many years it took? No, because if you did then you wouldn't have said it was an exaggeration. Once there are shovels in the ground it's already been a very expensive hole.

I didn't say it was free. I am just saying that 6 months of work into an 8 year project isn't substantial progress. And frankly another Shepherd style stubway wouldn't have been of much use. Rae's policy of building a stubway in every borough rather than focussing on actual transit needs was pretty short-sighted.

[CityTech]

Leaked internal poll in Ottawa South:
PC candidate Karin Howard: 35.2%
Liberal incumbent John Fraser: 30.4%
NDP candidate Eleanor Fast: 28.0%

The same poll was also done provincewide as a comparison and showed:
PC: 38.5%
NDP: 34.6%
Liberal: 19.5%

If you compare the swings from 2014, you get this:
-Provincewide Liberal swing is -19.2, Ottawa South Liberal swing is -19.6
-Provincewide PC swing is +7.2, Ottawa South PC swing is +3.3
-Provincewide NDP swing is +11.9, Ottawa South NDP swing is +15.6

NDP gain is bigger, and PC gain smaller, in Ottawa South than in the rest of the province. The result of strong candidate Eleanor Fast, improved NDP traction in Eastern Ontario, or improved NDP traction among the types of people who live in Ottawa South?

Based on this number I strongly suggest Liberal voters in Ottawa South who want to topple Ford to strategically vote Eleanor Fast.

[Paul29]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I didn't say it was free. I am just saying that 6 months of work into an 8 year project isn't substantial progress. And frankly another Shepherd style stubway wouldn't have been of much use. Rae's policy of building a stubway in every borough rather than focussing on actual transit needs was pretty short-sighted.

It may have been short sighted. But Eglinton west was just the start of further planned expansion to the airport and they wanted the Spadina line to go to York U. That only happened last year and the only way to the airport from downtown is a $30 train ride.

The Sheppard subway was nothing more than Mel Lastman's legacy for North York. I recently read an article where Mike Harris said Mel Lastman had the choice of where he wanted those transit dollars spent and he chose the Sheppard subway over all else in the city. Way to pass the buck Mike......He said transit (in his opinion) should be 2/3 provincial dollars, 1/3 municipal. So for a guy who thinks he should be on the hook for 66% of something he didn't seem like he wanted anything to do with transit in the largest city in his province.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Paul29

It may have been short sighted. But Eglinton west was just the start of further planned expansion to the airport and they wanted the Spadina line to go to York U. That only happened last year and the only way to the airport from downtown is a $30 train ride.

They cut the price shortly after it opened and ran half-empty because of the cost. Now it's $12.35, or $9.25 with a Presto card, and with a Presto card, you can also get $1.50 taken off the fare if you transfer to/from the TTC (applied as a $1.50 fare discount on whichever system you're transferring to).

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Leaked internal poll in Ottawa South:
PC candidate Karin Howard: 35.2%
Liberal incumbent John Fraser: 30.4%
NDP candidate Eleanor Fast: 28.0%

The same poll was also done provincewide as a comparison and showed:
PC: 38.5%
NDP: 34.6%
Liberal: 19.5%

If you compare the swings from 2014, you get this:
-Provincewide Liberal swing is -19.2, Ottawa South Liberal swing is -19.6
-Provincewide PC swing is +7.2, Ottawa South PC swing is +3.3
-Provincewide NDP swing is +11.9, Ottawa South NDP swing is +15.6

NDP gain is bigger, and PC gain smaller, in Ottawa South than in the rest of the province. The result of strong candidate Eleanor Fast, improved NDP traction in Eastern Ontario, or improved NDP traction among the types of people who live in Ottawa South?

Based on this number I strongly suggest Liberal voters in Ottawa South who want to topple Ford to strategically vote Eleanor Fast.

Source?

If true, that's not particularly groundbreaking, IMO. I would think Ford would have less traction in Ottawa than in the province as a whole (most of the PC gains relative to 2014 are coming from the GTA), so this makes sense.

[BlueJay]

Originally Posted by Jamaican-Phoenix

As a side note: I find it so weird that the trend on the right is to drift even further right, all the while yearning for the good old days. I keep hearing older conservatives carry on about the glory of the Bill Davis days. Well, Bill Davis was rather sensible in a number of ways. If the PC's were sensible, then I could see myself voting for any of the three main parties in Ontario.

As it stands however, with all the anti-science and anti-immigrant talk among many PC candidates, as well as the lack of any kind of coherent budget and plan for government, I can't stomach the idea of voting for them, and can't for the life of me understand why others would, even as a "hold my nose" protest vote of sorts.

I know Yasir and while I think he's done a fine job, I do hope the NDP take power as they're the only reasonable alternative to a decade and a half of Liberal missteps and mismanagement.

Seriously? no PC Candidates have said anything that is anti-immigration. Are most against illegal immigration? of course, all parties should be against that. You are obviously an NDP supporter which is fine however, some of those candidates have been less than appealing. NDP have members that support hitler, want to drone attack legal Ontario gun owners, and think that Bush was a part of the 9-11 attacks. In all seriousness, all parties have some crazy candidates but I guess if you are a socialist you will vote NDP. I will assume you were not old enough to remember the Rae days. Here is hope that whatever party wins, will benefit the working middle class.

[1overcosc]

Nobody has said anything anti-immigration per se, but comments made by Merrilee Fullerton, Sam Oosterhoff, and Andrew Lawton are nothing to scoff at, they're quite toxic. At least Tanya Granic Allen was removed, to Ford's credit.

Rae is a pretty hilarious reason to use against the NDP.. that was a quarter of a century ago. Much of today's voters weren't even eligible voters in 1990.. they either didn't exist yet, were too young to vote, or weren't Canadian citizens.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by CityTech

Leaked internal poll in Ottawa South:
PC candidate Karin Howard: 35.2%
Liberal incumbent John Fraser: 30.4%
NDP candidate Eleanor Fast: 28.0%

The same poll was also done provincewide as a comparison and showed:
PC: 38.5%
NDP: 34.6%
Liberal: 19.5%

If you compare the swings from 2014, you get this:
-Provincewide Liberal swing is -19.2, Ottawa South Liberal swing is -19.6
-Provincewide PC swing is +7.2, Ottawa South PC swing is +3.3
-Provincewide NDP swing is +11.9, Ottawa South NDP swing is +15.6

NDP gain is bigger, and PC gain smaller, in Ottawa South than in the rest of the province. The result of strong candidate Eleanor Fast, improved NDP traction in Eastern Ontario, or improved NDP traction among the types of people who live in Ottawa South?

Based on this number I strongly suggest Liberal voters in Ottawa South who want to topple Ford to strategically vote Eleanor Fast.

A leaked PC internal poll?

[vid]

If 2% of them voted the NDP would win every seat.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Rae is a pretty hilarious reason to use against the NDP.. that was a quarter of a century ago. Much of today's voters weren't even eligible voters in 1990.. they either didn't exist yet, were too young to vote, or weren't Canadian citizens.

The context is pretty similar: rapid rise in the polls, fiscal mess, long and expensive list of promises, no experienced cabinet ministers, unions who expect to be rewarded.