America is Over-Retailed - Too Many Stores

[atlantaguy]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

I was in Beechwood Place in Cleveland. I have been to the big malls in Metro Detroit. My parents have been to the big malls in Metro Phoenix, etc.
The malls in the USA just don't get as busy as the Canadian ones.

LOL! And THIS qualifies you to make such huge, sweeping generalizations on an entire country that has very different dynamics and 10 times the population of your own?

Guess again, Mike. It is beyond clear that you have absolutely NO idea what you are talking about here.

[miketoronto]

Originally Posted by atlantaguy

LOL! And THIS qualifies you to make such huge, sweeping generalizations on an entire country that has very different dynamics and 10 times the population of your own?

Guess again, Mike. It is beyond clear that you have absolutely NO idea what you are talking about here.

I have been to other malls in other cities as well.
Get all defensive you want. But the sales per sq foot also speak to this, as American malls have lower sales per sq foot than Canadian malls.

A lot of American malls also ban anyone under 18 years of age unless they have an adult with them. That I am sure also reduces the amount of people going through the mall.

[mhays]

I believe Mike on this one. I haven't seen numbers, but the US does have a massive amount of retail square footage per capita, compared to our own old numbers and compared to other countries. Easy sprawl is much of the reason.

[atlantaguy]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

I have been to other malls in other cities as well.
Get all defensive you want. But the sales per sq foot also speak to this, as American malls have lower sales per sq foot than Canadian malls.

A lot of American malls also ban anyone under 18 years of age unless they have an adult with them. That I am sure also reduces the amount of people going through the mall.

Not being "all defensive" at all. It's called a well needed dose of reality. I'm calling you out for speaking with such supreme authority while employing extremely sweeping generalizations - when you are very clearly not qualified to do so.

The dynamics of the retail scene between our two countries could not be more different. For generations, all you had to chose from were Eaton's/Simpson's and The Bay when it came to Dept. stores on a nationwide basis. That was never the case in the U.S.

To this day, your prices are artificially high due to suppressed retail offerings. Thankfully for Canadians, this is changing - despite your bemoaning of U.S. retail now finally being allowed in. For some odd reason, you seem to be extremely oppossed to these choices. I suspect it's nothing more than misguided Nationalism. However, Target WILL be a huge game-changer compared to the tired and dated Zellers. Likewise, knowing their business model, Nordstrom will blow most of your countrymen away when it comes to customer service. Just wait and see.

I also understand that many of your malls serve as bus-transfer hubs. I also suspect they serve as regional gathering places for teens and oldsters being the designated "Town Centers" of so many boring enclaves, with not a whole lot to offer otherwise. Scarborough Town Center comes to mind immediately. Again, with very, very few exceptions this is just another major difference between our two countries. The premiere malls in many major U.S. metro's are doing just fine, thank you - and gasp - some of ours happen to be connected by rail based transit to the urban core!!!!

Tell you what Mike - if you ever find yourself in the Pacific NW, check out the small regional mall in Bellingham, WA (Bellis Fair) just to the south of the B.C. border off of the I-5. While absolutely very ordinary in every possible way, the amount of cars from B.C. on an average weekend very often FAR exceed the local cars from Washington state. Just exactly why do you think this is?

Think about it.

I realize you are an urban romanticist, as I am too to an extent. BUT, with very few exceptions, the old Grande Dames of Downtown retail are no longer the realistic model in the 21st century.

[atlantaguy]

Originally Posted by mhays

I believe Mike on this one. I haven't seen numbers, but the US does have a massive amount of retail square footage per capita, compared to our own old numbers and compared to other countries. Easy sprawl is much of the reason.

I don't, for reasons stated above. Of course retail in the U.S. IS overbuilt, but Mike's stance is beyond ridiculous in my opinion.

Due to geography constraints, your metro has an incredibly healthy retail core, and was never really "over malled" as many other U.S. metro areas have been.

[mhays]

He generalizes way too broadly. But it sounds like we agree that Canada has way less retail per capita.

My metro is constricted in part because of choice. Growth management is popular in King County, which is the core half. We still build retail, but do it in a somewhat denser form on average, often adding to existing centers.

[atlantaguy]

Originally Posted by mhays

He generalizes way too broadly. But it sounds like we agree that Canada has way less retail per capita.

My metro is constricted in part because of choice. Growth management is popular in King County, which is the core half. We still build retail, but do it in a somewhat denser form on average, often adding to existing centers.

When it comes to retail, the same thing is happening here, finally.

That choice for Pugent Sound is very, very wise indeed and should be lauded. However, this is not something ingrained in the region for decades. This is a pretty recent (relatively speaking) occurance, and is really not part of your historical growth patterns of the not too distant past. Alderwood, Southcenter, etc. prove this. Again, the restrictions of your beautiful geography is perhaps the best thing that could have ever happened to such a booming region.

[mhays]

All true.

Alderwood and Southcenter are two examples where recent additions have been accommodated by stacking some of the parking. That's the first step in what could theoretically be much more, like Bellevue Square and others.

[J. Will]

The amount of retail in USA and Canada per capita is about the same. The numbers sometimes referenced the US having "50% more" is "shopping centre space" only. This only counts space in individual shopping centres over a certain size. Canadian metros are mostly in the 30-40 square foot per person range when considering total retail, not just "shopping centre" space. This is about the same as the United States.

The numbers sometimes referenced of 20 in the USA and 13 in Canada are nowhere near all the retail space.


Canada's mall sales per capita do indeed dwarf USA mall sales per capita, but this is only a recent phenomenon:



Edit: I meant retail sales per square foot, not per capita. My bad.

[Gordo]

^Much of that increase is simply due to appreciation of the Canadian dollar (that dip in 2009 is exactly the time that the CAD depreciated substantially against the USD before rebounding - also the beginning of a recession, of course):



As with anything, it's more interesting to compare things on a regional basis. Mike's big about talking about things that he's observed in the Rust Belt and then assuming that that must be the case everywhere in the US (malls banning folks under 18? WTF? Never heard of or seen this in any west coast mall).

[Wigs]

Just came across this by SSP member Retail-Insider
Many of North America's Most Productive Malls are in Canada by Retail Insider
Aug 13, 2012

Here is our list of 'top 15' North American malls and their sales per square foot:

1. Pacific Centre, Vancouver BC Canada: $1580/sq ft
2. Caesar's Palace, Las Vegas NV USA: $1470/sq ft
3. Toronto Eaton Centre, Toronto ON Canada: $1320/sq ft
4. Yorkdale Shopping Centre, Toronto ON Canada: $1300/sq ft
5. Ala Moana Shopping Centre, Honolulu HI USA: $1250/sq ft
6. Oakridge Shopping Centre, Vancouver BC Canada: $1200/sq ft
7. Chinook Centre, Calgary AB Canada: $1055/sq ft
8. Mall at Short Hills, Short Hills NJ USA: $1050/sq ft
9. Mall at Millenia, Orlando FL USA: $1040/sq ft
10. Rideau Centre, Ottawa ON Canada: $1020/sq ft
11: Sherway Gardens, Toronto ON Canada: $950
12: Fairview Mall, Toronto ON Canada: $880/sq ft
13: Fashion Valley Shopping Centre, San Diego CA USA: $875/sq ft
14: Peter Pond Mall, Ft. McMurray AB Canada: $850/sq ft (we're not joking about this one)
15: Garden State Plaza, Paramus NJ USA: $750/sq ft

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by WIGS

Just came across this by SSP member Retail-Insider
Many of North America's Most Productive Malls are in Canada by Retail Insider
Aug 13, 2012

That is because of the increased value of Canada's currency as historically the US' malls have always had higher sales per square foot.

Same sort of thing is happening in Australia too.

Well, it could also be that Canadians are becoming more materialistic. loljk

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by miketoronto

I was in Beechwood Place in Cleveland. I have been to the big malls in Metro Detroit. My parents have been to the big malls in Metro Phoenix, etc.
The malls in the USA just don't get as busy as the Canadian ones.

There is a reason why Canadian malls on average have double the sales per sq foot than even the busiest malls in the USA. And one of those reasons sited was because Canada did not overbuild its retail.

There are other reasons as well. American malls are not centres of public transit routes like Canadian malls are, and that was sited as another reason Canadian malls do so well.

At the end of the day America just has too much shopping, and places are cannibalizing each other. There is no reason at all that one city needs 20 branches of one store, or 10 malls, etc. It is just too much.

Well, this is the nature of competition.

What's happened in the US is that traditional enclosed suburban malls, especially the ones in inner ring suburbs, many have lost their luster and appeal and have been decimated by the advent of big box stores that are typically located in massive strip malls.

Also, faux urban 'lifestyle centers' are the new it when it comes to retail.

Of course, many malls are doing just fine, some doing great, but the decline of malls is not really a shock to anyone.

As far as downtown shopping, that's actually been a huge problem in the US for a long time as most jobs are in the suburbs, most people are in the suburbs so it stands to reason that most retailers will also be in the suburbs.

Some cities still have very strong retail in their downtown. New York, Chicago and San Francisco are the top 3 in the US when it comes to the concentration of national and international stores and boutiques located in the CBD and there is no lack of shopping amenities at all in these 3 'downtown' areas. Boston I think is next. Seattle is also very strong in this regard.

[brickell]

Originally Posted by WIGS

Just came across this by SSP member Retail-Insider
Many of North America's Most Productive Malls are in Canada by Retail Insider
Aug 13, 2012

No Bal Harbour on the list? Hmmm

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/2...hops-tops.html

When it comes to sales volumes, the Bal Harbour Shops ranks as tops in the world, according to a recent industry report.

With its roster of luxury retail tenants, Bal Harbour reported annual sales of $2,555 per square foot and expects that number to grow to $3,000 by year end.

[MolsonExport]

Ah, fuck it. Let's bring back Woolco.
• Video Link• Video Link


You can't have cheese without Alan Thicke, it seems.

[J. Will]

Originally Posted by WIGS

Just came across this by SSP member Retail-Insider
Many of North America's Most Productive Malls are in Canada by Retail Insider
Aug 13, 2012

A problem with this list is that they say they are excluding the Sears store in Vancouver from the mall's calculations. I'll assuming if they're including it in the calculations from the denominator (square footage) that they're also excluding it in the numerator (sales), but even then it makes no sense. The store is closing later this year, but for now it's still open.

No surprise to see the Toronto Eaton Centre and Yorkdale Mall both in the top 4. Those malls are incredibly successful, and any space that goes vacant is gobbled up immediately. Being on a subway line makes all the difference to a mall. Which is why it boggles the mind that the Seattle-area idiot Kemper Freeman is against light rail to downtown Bellevue. If there were an LRT/subway stop beneath his "mall collection" in downtown Bellevue, sales at his malls would soar. Who knows, they might go up 30-50%.

[glowrock]

Originally Posted by WIGS

Just came across this by SSP member Retail-Insider
Many of North America's Most Productive Malls are in Canada by Retail Insider
Aug 13, 2012

The recent meteoric rise in Canadian malls' sales per sq ft number is definitely, at least in part, due to the Canadian dollar's increased value vs. the U.S. dollar. That being said, I do believe that there are likely less total larger shopping malls per capita in most Canadian cities vs. American cities of similar sizes and demographics. As for places like Eaton Centre, well, let's face it, it's a huge draw both for local residents AND tourists, and that always counts as a huge plus. The fact that so many of the stores are high-end doesn't hurt, either. And of course the subway stops are beneficial as well!

And yes, I happened to have spent a reasonable amount of time there just two weekends ago, so I do know something about the place! Heh


Aaron (Glowrock)

[J. Will]

Originally Posted by brickell

No Bal Harbour on the list? Hmmm

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/08/2...hops-tops.html

I'm guessing there's a minimum size for that list. According to Wikipedia, Bal Harbour Shops is only 500,000 square feet, which is extremely smalll for a mall.

[rs913]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

As far as downtown shopping, that's actually been a huge problem in the US for a long time as most jobs are in the suburbs, most people are in the suburbs so it stands to reason that most retailers will also be in the suburbs.

But aren't a lot of jobs in downtown areas? It's just that that's all there is in most downtowns, causing them to clear out after 6pm on weeknights and stay empty on weekends. As more cities start developing downtown apartments and lofts (some of them quickly, others not so quickly), I wonder if we might start seeing baby steps towards increased U.S. downtown retail.

As for suburban malls, we're really seeing a lot of consolidation, with the strong ones staying strong and the weak ones dying off entirely, causing some of their retailers to try to move to the stronger ones. For instance, Valley Fair in San Jose is doing great, but Vallco in nearby Cupertino is just about kaput.

[M II A II R II K]

Big Boxes: Keeping All the Ducks in a Row by Eric McAfee


October 2nd, 2012

By Eric McAfee

Read More: http://www.urbanophile.com/2012/10/0...y-eric-mcafee/

.....

Thanks to the almost exponential proliferation of shopping centers over the last half century, the rules for straight-line depreciation of a retail outlet tend to employ estimations of about 15 years, meaning that the average commercial plaza will need a thorough renovation in that time frame if it is to retain a lucrative market. In fast-growing metropolitan areas, that number could even be smaller. But suburban growth patterns, where decentralization is the primary force acting upon new settlements, are fairly predictable in nature: an auto-oriented shopping plaza that still lures top-dollar tenants after 40 years is the exception, not the norm. I have covered the topic of metropolitan retail periodically over the years, and at the moment I’m not sure I have anything new to offer.

- But smaller communities are another story altogether. Many of them are static in population; quite a few are shrinking. Presumably their retail landscapes would echo these patterns by demonstrating very little change, right? An evaluation of the small Louisiana city of Houma (50 miles to the southwest of New Orleans) would suggest that this is not the case. The region itself is not particularly depressed; consistent growth in the fishing and petrochemical industries kept the unemployment rate among the nation’s lowest in the spring of 2009, during the peak of the Great Recession. It’s unemployment has inched up to above 5.0% since then, but it still remains well below both the state and national rate.

- It’s relatively vigorous economy, however, is exerting only a modest impact on population change. Houma itself grew 4.1% from between the 2000 and 2010 Census, and the surrounding parish of Terrebonne grew 7.04%— not bad, considering Houma suffered through four hurricanes in the last decade, and even better considering Louisiana’s anemic population growth of 1.4% over this time frame. But these figures hardly indicate an oil boomtown comparable to the many that have sprouted like mushrooms in Texas, or the more recent equivalents in Williston, ND and Gillette, WY. Despite relatively modest growth, the retail developments have relentlessly shifted away from Houma’s town center. This pattern isn’t merely referring to the hegira of downtown businesses to auto-oriented shopping centers—that obviously happened decades ago. The latest phase shows a move from those neighborhood strip malls to a marginally different automobile oriented typology. The side of Houma west of the Intercoastal Waterway that bisects the city is both higher income and more heavily populated.

.....