A game: guess that house price (before the bubble bursts!)

rousseau · #1 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:16 AM**

Renovator's special in what you might call "upper" Little India in Toronto. Completely gutted and with new footings, according to the MLS ad. In a comfortable inner ring residential area that is typical Toronto: a bit shabby-looking, and nothing to set an urbanist's heart aflame, but just down a ways from one of this continent's most fantastic commercial streets, Little India on Gerrard (probably has little to no bearing on the price of the house, though).

https://www.google.ca/maps/@43.67523...8i6656!6m1!1e1

How much do you think it's listed for? Don't cheat. The closest guesser within $10,000 wins 15 million internet simoleons and the right to post the next house. (Just go to mls.ca, save a photo of the house in question to your hard drive, upload it to your image host of choice (photobucket, flickr, etc.) and then post a link to said image in your post).

Architype · #2 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:17 AM**

1.3 million?

rousseau · #3 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:18 AM**

Too warm.

kwoldtimer · #4 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:38 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Architype

1.3 million?

That's too much if the house is being sold in a gutted state. Assuming it's otherwise in decent condition, I'd say $800,000 gutted, $1.1 if the interior were fully renovated.

lio45 · #5 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:40 AM**

Gutted? $985,000.

Just so it's in the six figures... y'know, basic marketing. "Just down a ways from one of this continent's most fantastic commercial streets, for... not even one mere million! Hurry before someone else snaps it up!!!"

rousseau · #6 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:44 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Assuming it's otherwise in decent condition, I'd say $800,000 gutted...

Cold.

lio45 · #7 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:45 AM**

On the other hand, I've always said that it would be smarter to do total rehabs in, say, the nicest areas of places like Manhattan or San Francisco (provided you have of course the required capital to start with), since most of your investments are identical (your time and the material needed) but the jump in value from trashed to rehabbed is going to be a much bigger absolute number of dollars.

I don't really do total rehabs anymore, but if I did in a Canadian context, this POS would probably make sense, even if the asking price seems outrageous at first sight. (Unless I'm really unlucky on the timing and the bubble pops right during the time I'm fixing it up, but I honestly expect more of a slowing down then mild deflation, we'll all see it coming IMO.)

kwoldtimer · #8 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:46 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau

Cold.

Shurely not over $1M for a gutted house!? I am out of touch with Toronto.

caltrane74 · #9 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:47 AM**

My guess, is $750-$800k because it's gutted. Otherwise, I would have said $1 million.

lio45 · #10 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:48 AM**

BTW, architecturally, the thin bland pillars and the incorrectly-mansarded second story are real turnoffs. The colors suck as well.

logan5 · #11 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:48 AM**

This area is probably the equivalent to Grandview/Woodlands (which is centred around Commercial Dr.) in Vancouver. If it's close to 1.3 that's pretty much on par with Vancouver, where housing prices are supposedly much higher.

rousseau · #12 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:56 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Shurely not over $1M for a gutted house!? I am out of touch with Toronto.

$1.3 million is too warm. $800,000 is too cold.

kwoldtimer · #13 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 12:59 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by rousseau

$1.3 million is too warm. $800,000 is too cold.

OK, so in that case I will go to $900,000. If it's more than that I can only say "when will the insanity stop?"!

rousseau · #14 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:01 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

OK, so in that case I will go to $900,000. If it's more than that I can only say "when will the insanity stop?"!

Close enough. List price is $871,900. It's a bit cheaper due to being gutted.

Your turn.

logan5 · #15 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:04 AM**

Oh. I thought too warm meant very close. Ok Vancouver much more expensive.

kwoldtimer · #16 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:06 AM**

I'll let someone else take my turn.

rousseau · #17 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:09 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by logan5

Oh. I thought too warm meant very close. Ok Vancouver much more expensive.

You know what? I did that wrong! Warm means close, and cold means you're not close, as you say.

For some reason I was using warm to mean "too high" and cold to mean "too low." Call it a brain spasm.

lio45 · #18 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:12 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

I'll let someone else take my turn.

... May I?

kwoldtimer · #19 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by lio45

... May I?

Go for it, but keep it in Canada, OK?

lio45 · #20 Posted **Jan 5, 2016, 1:29 AM**

This very nice condo, right next door to the Château Frontenac in the walled Upper Town.

https://www.google.com/maps/dir//46..../data=!3m1!1e3

Pics from the MLS will be up in a minute or so...