Canadian Expansion
Following political turmoil in Europe, St. Pierre and Miquelon (population 15K) vote to secede from France and join Canada as the 11th province. This demand for provincial status was partially intended to maintain their French language and culture as distinct from that of nearby Newfoundland and Labrador, and partially because of their distance from Quebec and the Maritimes. This passes the incredibly difficult process of admitting a new Canadian province as referenda across the country show voters largely in favour of the idea, and all political parties take note. The territories become provinces in turn for their support of admitting SP&M, with NWT (60K) becoming renamed as the province of Aurora.
British Overseas Territories follow suit, with Bermuda (100K), the Virgin Islands (50K) and the Turks and Caicos (50K) all becoming provinces as well. Instead of appending 'Canadian' instead of 'British' to the Virgin Islands, they become renamed Tortola. Following further devastation by category 6 hurricanes (new category!
), several other island nations join, but because of their risk to natural disaster, they join together as a single province, Caribe (200K).
Bahamas (500K) and Barbados (350K), interested in this sudden conglomeration of North American territories, vote to join Canada titled not as provinces, but as internal countries, similar to Scotland and Wales in the UK. Quebec (13M) is granted status as a country within a country at this time upon this condition. However, the powers of the provinces are comparable to those of the constituent countries. Again, the national mood is favourable to this hemispherical consolidation.
Although these changes of status were easy to pass due to national popularity, future secessionist movements would conversely prove more difficult. It was easier to join than to leave. Toronto remains within Ontario, and Labrador remains within Newfoundland and Labrador. However, Nunatsiavut and Inuvialuit become more autonomously governed territories within their respective provinces of Yukon and Newfoundland and Labrador, or possibly join the province of Nunavut.
The population of this Canada is 68 million.
Freedom of Movement
Free trade is strengthened by the addition of freedom of movement arrangements between Canada and Australia, New Zealand, and the EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein, Iceland, and the UK, which was admitted in 2020 following Brexit).
Constitutional Monarchy Maintained but Elected
Following the death of Queen Elisabeth in 2030 (long live the queen), several Commonwealth realms voted on the succession order. This was seen as a response to conflicting national opinion on maintaining a foreign monarchy, especially given the relative unpopularity and advanced age of Prince Charles. It was also preferable to becoming a presidential republic given the autocratic tendencies of several of the world's presidents during this time. Further, it was also seen as the legal path of least resistance, and only required a national referendum and subsequent vote from the Privy Council. This created multiple new monarchies splitting the House of Windsor, with Savannah (daughter of the queen's grandson Peter Phillips and Montreal-born Autumn Kelly) elected Queen of Canada, Harry elected King of Australia and New Zealand, and William as King of Great Britain. The role of Governor General has been maintained, with the position granted upon advice from the prime minister, and the monarchy maintains a purely symbolic and apolitical role.
[This last 'prediction' could also be that Canada, Australia and New Zealand did indeed become republics, but maintained a separation of roles and powers between prime ministers (heads of government) and presidents (cultural figureheads but also a hand on the levers of power to prevent slides into authoritarianism). Perhaps an entirely new name was given to this presidential or governor general role, such as chancellor, grand chief, or something entirely new. Perhaps, even, the title king or queen was maintained but was an elected Canadian-born person, and the terms were somehow longer than a prime minister, but not for life. Every 8-12 years?]