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  #81  
Old Posted Dec 24, 2018, 11:42 PM
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e. Quality is extremely difficult to come by and the truth is that if you want it, you have to buy from abroad. That's one reason why you can't buy a Chinese car outside of China for the most part, for example.
I don't know, I've lived in China for 11 years now and there has been a very evident increase in quality of Chinese goods in many sectors in that time, particularly in the automotive and consumer electronics industries. When I first moved here, Chinese cars truly were terrible. That definitely isn't true anymore. Manufacturers like Roewe / MG (SAIC), Chery, BYD, Geely, and Great Wall are building cars with interesting design and quality that seems to match anything that anyone else is building in the Chinese market. And in the consumer electronics sector, companies like Huawei, Xiaomi, Vivo/Oppo, and Hai'er all build high quality goods.
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  #82  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 2:19 AM
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I'd say China's homegrown tech companies have definitely improved and become competitive. Smart phones, and especially drones, can compete on an international level, and in some cases, like DJI, are industry leaders.

But Sprocket has some great points about the current leadership. I'm not hopeful that the mainland will progress in any real way socially and globally with the current lot in power. To be honest, it's been a massive step backwards after three decades of forward progression.
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  #83  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 3:38 AM
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Do you picture President Xi becoming like Brezhnev? Being rigid and presiding over a period of stagnation?

Or will he eventually be ousted and replaced if he doesn't keep up the economic growth promises?
In these totalitarian systems it is almost impossible to remove the strongman once established. They purge all rivals and fill important posts with sycophants. Barring a complete collapse he is almost certainly there for life. Brezhnev is a good anology.
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  #84  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 3:49 AM
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I'd say China's homegrown tech companies have definitely improved and become competitive. Smart phones, and especially drones, can compete on an international level, and in some cases, like DJI, are industry leaders.

But Sprocket has some great points about the current leadership. I'm not hopeful that the mainland will progress in any real way socially and globally with the current lot in power. To be honest, it's been a massive step backwards after three decades of forward progression.
This is close to my feeling on China. A decade ago I was really optimistic about their future but the last five years have witnessed major regressions politically. There is often a lag (and sometimes a brief economic boom) between such negative political changes and the negative consequences on the economy / social life, but the future does look scary in China.

The constant surveillance / social credit system is the scariest system of suppression I have ever witnessed. Could there be any more perfect of a tool for suppressing / removing challengers to the reigning dictatorship... I mean government? Already millions are banned from leaving the country. It is also the perfect tool to keep minorities / the lower class in a cycle of perpetual suppression.

Lots not mention the public executions in stadiums and the re education camps for religious minorities.

China also has a population crisis on their hands like no other. Not only an aging population (due to one child policy) but also a major imbalance between males and females (also due to the one child policy). This is causing a lot of males to live without partners to procreate with.

Overall, major challenges for China are coming sooner or later and Xi has thrown it into full throttle.
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  #85  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 3:54 AM
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In these totalitarian systems it is almost impossible to remove the strongman once established. They purge all rivals and fill important posts with sycophants. Barring a complete collapse he is almost certainly there for life. Brezhnev is a good anology.
And Trump too - especially the sycophant bit.........
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  #86  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 3:56 AM
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It also doesn’t help that Chinese culture favours males a lot more than females.
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A: Hook up a trailer to the back of the pickup truck and get from one Bay to the other Bay. Then you can understand which is more of a better highway to upgrade.
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  #87  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 6:24 AM
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Luckily for the rest of the world, China is a house of cards waiting to collapse. So much of their economic growth since the 2008 recession has been based strictly on debt growth. China between it`s federal, state, and civic structures have debt levels of nearly 240%. Much of this is civic debt hidden behind an opace shadow banking system used by munciple governments.


Ever wonder where China manages to find all the money to build it`s huge Metro systems? ............well it`s the same reason why China has a truly staggering 50 million empty housing units. The cities/provinces are told by Beijing how much their economy must grow by each year and the bureaucracy obliges as they know the consequences of not, at least on paper, meeting those targets. So the cities merrily build their Metros and condos along the routes to pump the GDP numbers and do so thru loans but use the collateral of the new condos the cities also built in order to secure the loan and pay it back when selling those condos. The thinking is by taking state land and building condo the condos can be built fairly cheaply and yet sold at a premium due to the transit lines and hence paying back the loans originally for the Metro costs.

Of course there is the problem............the condos aren't selling so you have millions of empty condos that were suppose to pay for the Metro lines. In order to hide this and avoid insolvency they get loans thru China's massive shadow banking system who get the money from other shadow banks etc. Of course in China businesses {except very small person Mom & Pop stores} are not aloud to go bankrupt so the entire system just keeps building on more debt and Beijing keeps it's non-floating currency undervalued to maintain exports to keep the economy rolling as even a few majore bankruptcies could cause the entire banking dector to implode and the economy with it.
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  #88  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 12:00 PM
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Luckily for the rest of the world, China is a house of cards waiting to collapse. So much of their economic growth since the 2008 recession has been based strictly on debt growth. China between it`s federal, state, and civic structures have debt levels of nearly 240%. Much of this is civic debt hidden behind an opace shadow banking system used by munciple governments.


Ever wonder where China manages to find all the money to build it`s huge Metro systems? ............well it`s the same reason why China has a truly staggering 50 million empty housing units. The cities/provinces are told by Beijing how much their economy must grow by each year and the bureaucracy obliges as they know the consequences of not, at least on paper, meeting those targets. So the cities merrily build their Metros and condos along the routes to pump the GDP numbers and do so thru loans but use the collateral of the new condos the cities also built in order to secure the loan and pay it back when selling those condos. The thinking is by taking state land and building condo the condos can be built fairly cheaply and yet sold at a premium due to the transit lines and hence paying back the loans originally for the Metro costs.

Of course there is the problem............the condos aren't selling so you have millions of empty condos that were suppose to pay for the Metro lines. In order to hide this and avoid insolvency they get loans thru China's massive shadow banking system who get the money from other shadow banks etc. Of course in China businesses {except very small person Mom & Pop stores} are not aloud to go bankrupt so the entire system just keeps building on more debt and Beijing keeps it's non-floating currency undervalued to maintain exports to keep the economy rolling as even a few majore bankruptcies could cause the entire banking dector to implode and the economy with it.
I think it's hilarious that you think the collapse of the world's second largest economy will be good for the world. If it does collapse (not that I think it will) the repercussions for the global economy will be staggering.

China isn't building infrastructure to make money - it's building infrastructure because investment in the nation's infrastructure is investment in the future. The construction of apartment complexes (typically financed by private companies, NOT the government) has never been expected to pay for Metro lines. Besides which, the millions of empty apartments are very unlikely to be the ones built beside city Metro lines - it's the ones that they're building out in the middle of nowhere away from Metro and other infrastructure that are the real problem, as nobody actually wants to live in those.

And just FYI, China has provinces, not states. If you can't even get that kind of basic information about China straight, why should anyone take the rest of your bullshit seriously?
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  #89  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 1:42 PM
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And Trump too - especially the sycophant bit.........
He certainly has every instinct of a despot. Unfortunately for him, the principal objective of the writers of the constitution was to make the emergence of a despot very difficult.
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  #90  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 1:49 PM
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I think it's hilarious that you think the collapse of the world's second largest economy will be good for the world. If it does collapse (not that I think it will) the repercussions for the global economy will be staggering.
I doubt it. Most of China’s economy is capital formation. It imports very little compared to other large economies and then mostly raw materials. Most countries wouldn’t even notice of their China exports disappear (Australian coal industry and Vancouver condo business would be in big trouble though).
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  #91  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 2:25 PM
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I doubt it. Most of China’s economy is capital formation. It imports very little compared to other large economies and then mostly raw materials. Most countries wouldn’t even notice of their China exports disappear (Australian coal industry and Vancouver condo business would be in big trouble though).
The Chinese middle/consumer class is gigantic (think 600 million people with expendable incomes). Everything from Hollywood movies tickets, iPhones to western lifestyle brands like Starbucks and Uniqlo, rely heavily on Chinese purchasing power, and their international expansions have heavily favoured China in the 21st century. The tourism industry in Asia and around the world would feel a massive pinch from the complete absence of the millions of Chinese travelers as well. They now spend the most out of any other nation's citizens when abroad (to the tune of $165b in 2014 alone).

While the earth would still spin, a collapse of the Chinese economy would hurt, and hurt bad.
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  #92  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 2:31 PM
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I doubt it. Most of China’s economy is capital formation. It imports very little compared to other large economies and then mostly raw materials. Most countries wouldn’t even notice of their China exports disappear (Australian coal industry and Vancouver condo business would be in big trouble though).
Right.

The global economy is just going to laugh off innumerable multinationals losing large percentages of their supply chain AND sales volume. Sure.
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  #93  
Old Posted Dec 25, 2018, 4:50 PM
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Right.

The global economy is just going to laugh off innumerable multinationals losing large percentages of their supply chain AND sales volume. Sure.
An economy that collapses doesn’t disappear from the space time continuum. Multinationals may lose a few percentage points off their global sales (but most countries wouldn’t notice because there are few exports). I am sure local and national authorities will continue to be happy to exploit workers.
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  #94  
Old Posted Dec 26, 2018, 8:14 AM
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I agree the effects of a Chinese collapse would have devastating effects on the world economy but vastly more on China because due to China's illegal trading practices. it has a huge export surplus with nearly all major world economies. Those countries would lose exports to China but conversely wouldn't have Chinese goods undercutting their own manufacturing.

It would definitely throw the world and stock exchanges into a tail spin but in the long run it would be better for world peace. Due to the Chinese government and business being nearly one in the same, the current government would also fall which is good for everyone and including the Chinese people themselves who have to live under Xi's tyranny.
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  #95  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2019, 2:58 AM
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A new poll shows 56% of Canadians fully approve of Canada’s detention of Meng Wenzhou and 80% have a negative impression of China’s authoritarian regime.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/poli...xecutive-poll/

Meng continues to live a life of luxury in Vancouver, enjoying one of the two local residences she squats on, while the Canadians imprisoned in China get minimal consular access and endure invasive interrogation.
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  #96  
Old Posted Jan 9, 2019, 4:11 AM
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It would definitely throw the world and stock exchanges into a tail spin but in the long run it would be better for world peace. Due to the Chinese government and business being nearly one in the same, the current government would also fall which is good for everyone and including the Chinese people themselves who have to live under Xi's tyranny.
Many people thought the same thing in the 80's about the USSR and the outcome was pretty bad. Russia did not do well and we didn't even end up with a friendlier Russian government. Gorbachev seems like a dream these days.

I think, basically, that countries do better under good economic conditions and do worse under poor economic conditions. Human rights and highly functional public institutions have historically evolved from high demand for labour and economic equality. This is why Europe and North America are the way they are. China is the way it is because of its huge pool of cheap labour and the fallout from centuries of abuse by other countries.

If bad stuff happens to China it will end up worse off and its government will be harder for Canada to deal with. We should try to avoid an economic crisis in China, not cause one.
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  #97  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 12:57 AM
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Q: ON-11 or ON-17, which one should we twin (assuming there's political will)?

A: Hook up a trailer to the back of the pickup truck and get from one Bay to the other Bay. Then you can understand which is more of a better highway to upgrade.
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  #98  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 3:49 AM
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
I doubt it. Most of China’s economy is capital formation. It imports very little compared to other large economies and then mostly raw materials. Most countries wouldn’t even notice of their China exports disappear (Australian coal industry and Vancouver condo business would be in big trouble though).
60% of the Chinese economy is powered by domestic (consumer) demand (Canada's is 70%). It is ranked second, globally, for imports, behind the United States. Your perspective is outdated. I am not saying there aren't speculative excesses in the Chinese economy, but your depiction is both facile and wrong.
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  #99  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 6:48 PM
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60% of the Chinese economy is powered by domestic (consumer) demand (Canada's is 70%). It is ranked second, globally, for imports, behind the United States. Your perspective is outdated. I am not saying there aren't speculative excesses in the Chinese economy, but your depiction is both facile and wrong.
There's a huge amount of speculative excess in China's real estate market.

Empty Homes and Protests: China’s Property Market Strains the World
A glut of unwanted apartments gets part of the blame for a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy. In some places, homeowners are taking to the streets.

JURONG, China — For Hu Peiliang, Jurong was a city of cranes, concrete and opportunity. He was so sure it was on the cusp of a boom that last year he moved his family there.

On an overcast day last month, Mr. Hu, a 31-year-old real estate agent, pointed to one new building after another as evidence. New city blocks have been built, crosswalks and streetlights erected overnight. One development straddling several blocks called Yudong International will include 120 buildings when completed.

But who will buy all those apartments? Mr. Hu paused before answering. “I was wondering that myself,” he said. Since July, he has sold only a handful.

Unwanted apartments are weighing on China’s economy — and, by extension, dragging down growth around the world. Property sales are dropping. Apartments are going unsold. Developers who bet big on continued good times are now staggering under billions of dollars of debt.

“The prospects of the property market are grim,” said Xiang Songzuo, a senior economist at Renmin University, said during a lecture at Renmin Business School this month.

“The property market is the biggest gray rhino,” he said, referring to a term the government has used to describe visibly big problems in the Chinese economy that are disregarded until they start gaining momentum.

China is grappling with an economic slowdown brought on by efforts to curb debt and worsened by the trade fight with the United States. But any solution will have to contend with the country’s property problems. More than one in five apartments in Chinese cities — roughly 65 million — sit unoccupied, estimates Gan Li, a professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu.

“We are already in a difficult economic situation,” Mr. Gan said. “The decline will only get worse.”...


https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/30/b...th=login-email

This also helps explain Vancouver's real estate woes. An incredibly large amount of unsophistictaed investors with money to spend and no sense of true value.
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  #100  
Old Posted Jan 10, 2019, 11:10 PM
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While the bombastic Chinese amabassador to Canada has been bust blathering that Meng Wenzhou's arrest is "white supremacy" in action (expel this idiot already) Reuters has discovered linkages between Huawei and shell companies in iran and Syria which illustrate how Huawei was trying to evade US sanctions, as charged):

...U.S. authorities allege CFO Meng Wanzhou deceived international banks into clearing transactions with Iran by claiming the two companies were independent of Huawei, when in fact Huawei controlled them. Huawei has maintained the two are independent: equipment seller Skycom Tech Co. Ltd. and shell company Canicula Holdings Ltd.

But corporate filings and other documents found by Reuters in Iran and Syria show that Huawei, the world's largest supplier of telecommunications network equipment, is more closely linked to both firms than previously known.

The documents reveal that a high-level Huawei executive appears to have been appointed Skycom's Iran manager. They also show that at least three Chinese-named individuals had signing rights for both Huawei and Skycom bank accounts in Iran. Reuters also discovered that a Middle Eastern lawyer said Huawei conducted operations in Syria through Canicula.

The previously unreported ties between Huawei and the two companies could bear on the U.S. case against Meng, who is the daughter of Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei, by further undermining Huawei's claims that Skycom was merely an arms-length business partner...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/hua...hina-1.4970107
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